NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Xfinity 500

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview this weekend's Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

We've once again reached the penultimate race of the NASCAR season to determine who will run for the championship next weekend in Phoenix.

Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell are locked into the championship race, and William Byron has a 30-point cushion thanks to his excellent season, so effectively one spot remains for a winner in this Round of 8 or whoever may end up ahead on points.

NASCAR made this switch to Martinsville Speedway a few years ago, and especially from a DFS and betting perspective, I like it. This short, flat, 0.5-mile oval is actually one of the better comparisons to Phoenix Raceway on the circuit, so we can learn from this weekend for next -- and so can the drivers that are already effectively locked in. That puts Larson, Bell, and Byron on the menu; they're not mailing in this test session.

Martinsville is a track you can visualize as a long-time fan. The 20-second laps allow for plenty of traffic, and there's an odd groove dynamic here where sometimes the outside can prevail, but largely, you want to run right around the bottom lip of the speedway. That makes passing difficult and managing your tires and brakes paramount.

General Lineup Strategy

We just had the night race at Bristol in September, so the short-track DFS strategy is fairly fresh. We'll want to target cars and drivers toward the front to lead as many of the 500 laps scheduled as possible. That's 50.0 FanDuel points available for laps led, weighting the value of running up front well beyond that of potential place-differential points this weekend.

Frankly, I feel the effective list of contenders is pretty short this weekend. I've truly only got 13 drivers pegged as a potential "dominator" of this race, and while I'd love four of them in as many lineups as possible, three is a minimum. This isn't the week to get cute with a stars-and-scrubs build, either; plenty of the drivers toward the back of the rankings will be multiple laps down before the end of the stage.

April's race here was a bit odd, but some conventional trends played out. Ryan Preece and Chase Briscoe combined to lead 234 of the 400 laps from top-four starting spots, and it could have been a lot more if Preece wasn't nabbed for speeding on pit road and sent to the back with the race's dominant vehicle.

Still, it was a bit unusual that 5 of the top-10 finishers started outside of the top 15, but I think that only emphasizes our trend to lean on the Martinsville regulars at this unique layout. That trend is confusing, but it makes a lot more sense when we realize Larson, Joey Logano, and Chase Elliott were three of the drivers who found their way forward.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, recent form, track history, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar racetracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

• 2023 Martinsville (Spring) - 50.0%
• 2023 Loudon (Fall) - 30.0%
• 2023 Phoenix (Fall) - 10.0%
• 2023 Gateway (Spring) -10.0%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

Denny Hamlin ($14,000) led just 36 laps in the spring, so I wasn't sure how he'd grade out before running the MLT blend this weekend. He's still easily the top contender this weekend where he needs a win to fight for the title at Phoenix.

Hamlin had the third-best median time here, and he had the fourth-best time at the flat, one-mile oval in New Hampshire. It's not a huge shocker; he's arguably been the most well-rounded contender this year outside of Kyle Larson ($13,500), and Hamlin is a five-time winner at this venue. I'd hate to have to beat him this weekend.

Larson won the April race at this venue after finishing second here last October, bucking a trend where he was solid but not spectacular at "The Paper Clip". He had just 2 top-five finishes in 15 starts prior to those podium outings. He'll be pretty quick, but there is still thought of how much this specific weekend means to him or Christopher Bell ($10,500), who won last October's race. The top contenders don't have supreme motivation beyond Hamlin.

Ryan Blaney ($12,000) does. Blaney would race for the title with a win here, and he should have the speed to get it done. Jim's model built off average running position has Blaney as the race's second-most likely winner (10.26%), and my time-based blend does, too. He posted the seventh-best median time at Martinsville this April and had the second-best time in New Hampshire.

I believe Loudon (i.e. New Hampshire) does translate well to this place even though it's a bit bigger, and if it does, Martin Truex Jr. ($12,500) will be in business. Truex led 254 of 301 laps there, and he's a three-time Martinsville winner himself.

That's really where the true contenders for the win end. Kevin Harvick ($10,000) might be a final addition; while he's not racing for the championship, this is the penultimate race of his career in a season where he hasn't won. He had top-eight median times at both Martinsville and Loudon earlier this year, and if he's close to the front, I'm fairly certain he'd plow through another contender for his final win.

I said I wanted to jam in as many potential winners as possible, and Tyler Reddick ($8,500) comes at a salary that will likely make him my highest-drafted driver as a result of the strategy. Reddick had the fifth-best median time here in April, and he's undoubtedly going to do his best to move forward with a chance to point himself into the championship if he can secure 10 more than Blaney in this event.

Brad Keselowski ($11,500), Joey Logano ($9,000), and Aric Almirola ($8,000) are other horses for the course here. Almirola doesn't have a win here, but he has three top-eight finishes in his past four races here and had a top-six median time at both Martinsville and Loudon earlier this season.

I was pretty stunned to see so many quality options in the value tier specific to this layout. Chase Briscoe ($7,500) scored a top-five finish and led 109 laps in April here; I don't need anywhere close to that to pay off his salary. Ryan Preece ($5,000) also seemed poised to dominate the whole race, leading 101 laps before speeding. Their seasons have gone into the toilet at other venues, but this layout is unique enough to sense some value there.

Bubba Wallace ($6,500) also has consecutive top-eight finishes at Martinsville, and A.J. Allmendinger ($5,000) is well-positioned to continue his momentum after a top-five last week. Allmendinger has the 18th-best median lap time blend at these short, flat ovals and has 13 top-15 finishes in his career at Martinsville if Kaulig Racing gives him a capable vehicle this weekend.

The high-upside values that are legitimate top-10 threats only give more credence to the idea of jamming in top-five contenders for the win around them as often as possible.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.