NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: South Point 400

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview this weekend's South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

These are the weekends where I'm most delighted to write this DFS preview. We've got recent data on a very similar track that's only about a month old, and this weekend is pretty standard with just four total left in the 2023 season.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is your cookie-cutter, D-shaped, 1.5-mile oval with modest tire wear. Fresh tires definitely help, but track position also has plenty of value. With this next-gen car, these have actually been the most entertaining races with the most passing volume outside of drafting ovals.

Though a joint practice and qualifying session on Saturday will assist us in building lineups, we have a pretty darn good idea of who will be fast with a race at Las Vegas earlier this year joined by three other 1.5-milers that have a pretty similar layout. We were just at Kansas Speedway in September -- in a playoff setting.

With this being the first race in the Round of 8, there shouldn't be a huge deviation in point-collection strategy quite yet. We can play things straight up from that perspective.

General Lineup Strategy

This part is fairly standard, too. Exactly as was the case in Kansas, we'll have 267 laps (and 26.7 potential points for laps led on FanDuel) that we do want our drivers to lead the bulk of.

While there's plenty of passing on track, it just hasn't quite manifested into the end results in 2023. Of the 30 top-10 finishers between March's race in Las Vegas and both events at Kansas, only 6 of those drivers started outside the top-15 spots. While we would love to access place-differential options for value plays and non-lap-leaders, that hasn't been the optimal strategy this season.

I think there's good reason for that. With practice and qualifying fully back and -- usually -- taking place on Saturday around the time of Sunday's race conditions, the fastest drivers and teams have been starting toward the front. Because they're faster than the cars behind them, they also finish there. With that said, the "value" drivers in the perfect lineup for these three races started no better than 13th. It's like finding a needle in a haystack, but that could be required to take down a multi-entry tournament.

So, while we obviously want starters at the front with the design of leading laps, we shouldn't leak too far away from there for the rest of our lineups. If there's a notable exception like a car that is extremely fast in our rankings and/or practice but just makes a mistake in qualifying, that's the best case scenario. If we don't get one of those cars, I won't force drivers starting at the back for the sake of chasing place-differential points.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, recent form, track history, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar racetracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

• 2023 Kansas (Fall) - 40.0%
• 2023 Las Vegas (Spring) - 30.0%
• 2023 Kansas (Spring) - 20.0%
• 2023 Charlotte (Spring) - 10.0%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

Looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR odds, It's wild to me that Denny Hamlin ($13,500) is not the outright betting favorite for this race, but I'll take it.

Hamlin has easily been the best driver on this style of track, leading 63 laps with the best median lap time at Kansas last month. He's had a top-three median time in all four of the races in this week's sample, too.

The reason he's not is that Kyle Larson ($14,000) led 99 laps in that race at Kansas, and he also led 63 laps at Las Vegas in March when Hamlin only led 10. Larson, though, hasn't been quite as consistently fast beyond the box score with a best MLT ranking of fifth in either of the Kansas events.

Of course, William Byron ($13,000) also led 176 laps and won at this track in March, and Byron has surged with three straight top-two finishes recently on different track configurations. Writing off Willy B would be a mistake, but he's not quite flashed top-end speed on these configurations since Vegas, ranking 12th or worse in median lap time for both Kansas events. Byron's Texas win was much more about Larson's misfortune.

In fact, when looking at top-end speed, the Toyotas have been stronger across the board, and I've got one slightly ahead of Byron. Tyler Reddick ($12,500) snatched the win from Hamlin at Kansas, but his second-place median lap time there showed he was well qualified for the victory. Martin Truex Jr. ($12,000) and Christopher Bell ($11,500) are also alive in the playoffs with top-three median times at individual Kansas events this season.

With a win at Charlotte in May, Ryan Blaney ($11,000) comfortably kicks off the second tier of cars, but his Charlotte effort is doing quite a bit of heavy lifting with a median lap no higher than eighth at any other track in the sample. The good news? That eighth-place time came at Kansas last month, and he's still alive in the playoffs.

Chris Buescher ($9,500) hasn't flashed the results or speed at similar tracks to Las Vegas despite the win at a non-drafting oval (Michigan), so I'm giving the final driver still alive for the championship the benefit of the doubt with raw speed.

From the non-playoff group, last fall's Kansas winner, Bubba Wallace ($8,500), certainly could get it done from the Toyota camp. A tire issue at Kansas from second place ruined his effort there in September, but Wallace also finished second at Texas. I'd be shocked if he wasn't pretty quick. Ty Gibbs ($8,000) is the final Yoder to consider, too.

On speed, Erik Jones ($7,000) drove from 19th to finish 3rd in Kansas, but he was also running 3rd before the late caution flag. His second-half surge has been money on this track type, and he's a perfect example of a guy not to shy away from even if he starts in the top-15 spots. He's a value plug with the speed to hang there. Teammate Carson Hocevar ($6,000) has been a regular in the top 20 since he took over the #42 ride, too.

Conversely, I think it's a good weekend to -- once again -- largely cross off the Stewart-Haas bridage. Kevin Harvick ($7,200) is the exception with a 10th-place median blend at 1.5-milers this year, and his salary is low enough to expect a good day. None of Chase Briscoe ($6,200), Aric Almirola ($5,800), or Ryan Preece ($4,800) had a top-20 median time at Kansas, and the lone scenario I'd take any of them is a notably fast practice time followed by a mistake in qualifying, lowering the risk of using them considerably.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.