NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Cook Out Southern 500

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview the Cook Out Southern 500 from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

It's Labor Day weekend, which means NASCAR will travel to, in many ways, the place that most resembles its roots.

The egg-shaped, 1.37-mile oval at Darlington Raceway has just barely two grooves of racing right against the wall, and this track earned its nicknames of "Too Tough to Tame" or "The Lady in Black" as a brutal test for the drivers. It also factors extreme tire wear into a narrow track, and we'll see plenty of drivers up into the barrier this weekend.

This also marks the start of NASCAR's playoffs as we're down to 16 names for the championship. However, everyone is still gunning to win the Southern 500. We saw that last year as Erik Jones won from a non-playoff position.

Because of the tire wear, cars can advance (or fall from) positions throughout the course of a run. The spring race at Darlington was a wild, wreck-filled mess, and -- for whatever reason -- the mechanical attrition in this race a year ago took out two cars who had led at least 70 laps.

We've got a good sample to attack this track type, though.

General Lineup Strategy

Even though it hasn't manifested in good results, it's pretty clear that a majority of the 367 laps (and a whopping 36.7 FanDuel points for laps led) have usually stayed in a pair of hands.

Earlier this year, Martin Truex and Ross Chastain combined to lead 238 laps before wrecking each other. That was painful. In this race a year ago, Truex and Kyle Busch combined to lead 203 before both suffered mechanical issues. By and large, those drivers will typically finish the race and make the perfect lineup, so we should still target a minimum of three potential lap leaders in each lineup.

When looking for plays with them, starting positions are a bit more predictive at Darlington than you might think due to attrition. In this race last year, just one top-10 finisher started outside the top 20. In May's event, that number was four, but the leaders did quite literally crash themselves on multiple occasions.

I'll still look at practice times and our "slick track" blend of median lap times to judge who the fastest cars are in both groups. Track position has been at a premium every week in this next-gen car, and even Darlington applies.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, track history, recent form, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar race tracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

• 2023 Darlington (Spring) - 50.0%
• 2023 Richmond (Spring) - 25.0%
• 2023 Richmond (Fall) - 25.0%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

As someone who has been bearish on Martin Truex Jr. ($14,000) in recent weeks, he's a deserving favorite here.

It's been a year where Truex has dominated his best tracks historically like Sonoma, Loudon, and New Hampshire. Darlington also falls in that category for the two-time winner. More importantly, he's eclipsed 140 laps led in three of his last seven starts here.

I'm still putting Kyle Larson ($13,000) above teammate William Byron ($13,500) based on Larson's track history. He's scored a top-three finish in five of his last eight races here despite not busting through for a win. After all, Byron's win in May saw him lead just seven laps as he survived the mayhem collecting Truex, Larson, and Ross Chastain ($10,500).

Chastain deserves consideration after being out front for 93 laps in the spring, and we'll see if his speed returns now that teammate Daniel Suarez ($7,200) saw his team's playoff push come up empty. He's got a top-three median lap time blend when weighting in the two races at Richmond -- a high-tire-wear, flat oval like this one.

I can't knock Jim's simulations for loving Denny Hamlin ($12,500), but I'm beyond concerned when he had just the 18th-fastest median time in May at this track. Hamlin is one of three drivers with a top-10 average finish at Darlington since the start of 2020 (7.5).

The other two names on that list are Kevin Harvick ($10,000) and Joey Logano ($8,200), and both likely need a big showing in this first race of the playoffs. Harvick had the second-fastest median blend between here and Richmond, and Logano sits 11th in that category. Their speed has been inconsistent at other track types, so this one is likely circled for them.

In what is no surprise, Brad Keselowski ($8,500) has cleaned up at Darlington and Richmond with the third-fastest median blend, and you can't write off red-hot RFK Racing teammate Chris Buescher ($9,000), as well. The surprising name in this tier might be Bubba Wallace ($8,000), who has scored consecutive top-10 finishes at Darlington despite not scoring a top 15 in any of his previous eight starts prior.

Ryan Blaney ($7,200) has just two career top-10 finishes at this unique layout, but one did come back in May. If nothing else, his salary is quite low for a playoff driver.

I just can't get to Erik Jones ($7,000) unless we see a massive lift in practice speeds. Jones had the 23rd-best median time in May and finished 25th, but that was before this late-season renaissance, so I'll at least give him a chance to show me something this weekend. He's a two-time September winner at "The Lady in Black".

I'll likely be targeting a few value plays known now, though. Harrison Burton ($3,000) and Austin Dillon ($5,800) aren't playoff drivers, but they have top-10 average finishes here among active drivers since the start of 2020.

In that same vein, Ryan Preece ($5,200) was lightning-quick at Richmond, posting the best median lap time in the field last month. Preece's 21st-ranked median time at Darlington in May wasn't elite, but he's surged late in the year like Jones despite last week's wild ride.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.