NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Bass Pro Shops Night Race

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview this weekend's Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

It's Bristol, baby.

I don't have to say much more for the diehards, but if you're new, this race is circled as the favorite on the calendar for many. The world's fastest, high-banked, half-mile oval at Bristol Motor Speedway creates non-stop action at 15 seconds per lap. We'll get crashes, contact, and side-by-side racing all night long.

We now only run the pavement configuration once a year with dirt covering the surface for Easter Sunday, which does make it a bit tricky to forecast who exactly will be fast this year, but this unique layout does lend itself to "stickier" results year to year. Drivers that excel here usually are up front, and drivers that struggle -- including a few on the cutline in this final week of the first round of NASCAR's playoffs -- typically haven't surged into unexpected contention.

NASCAR hasn't put traction compound resin on any track yet this year, but they're expected to add some to the bottom lane this weekend to make it more competitive versus the lane right around the wall. However, it'll be at its weakest effect on Saturday after 500 total laps between Thursday's Truck Series and Friday's Xfinity Series events. Tire wear is also average here; we've seen race-winning calls to forgo tires for track position.

General Lineup Strategy

With 500 laps on the docket (and 50.0 FanDuel points for laps led), this is the weekend to target laps led points from front-of-the-field starters above all.

It's a double whammy for drivers starting in the back, too. Because of the length of the track, they are at a heightened risk of going a lap down early, and getting stuck in that position can quite literally end your chance to win. Green-flag pit stops result in at least three lost laps, so drivers won't have the benefit of wave-around scenarios (for the most part).

In last year's event, three different drivers led at least 100 laps and finished 13th or better. They all made the perfect FanDuel lineup. In 2022, three drivers led at least 70 laps, and two made the perfect lineup while Chase Elliott finished 25th and dropped out of it after a late pit issue. These drivers are musts to find to contend in -- or win -- FanDuel tournaments.

Of the 20 combined top-10 finishers in those races, only 2 drivers started outside of the top-20 spots. Oddly, one of them was Elliott, who finished 2nd last year after starting 23rd.

Both of those trends reinforce what we're hunting. We want three -- if not four -- cars that conceivably have the speed to lead laps. Increase your chances of finding the right ones in a given lineup. Our value plays should also be starting closer to the front, but I won't force that if it was a car that was slower in practice and/or our pre-weekend rankings and just happened to put down a single fast lap.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, track history, recent form, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar racetracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

• 2023 Dover (Spring) - 35.0%
• 2023 Nashville (Spring) - 35.0%
• 2022 Bristol (Fall) - 30.0%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

Denny Hamlin ($13,500) was just a handful of laps from a win last weekend at Kansas. He should be pretty quick on Saturday.

Hamlin's history at Bristol isn't out of this world, but he did win the fall race in 2019 and has finished in the top 10 in three of the five races here since that victory. In the two exceptions, he also found the front to lead at least a lap. Given his fastest overall median blend across 2023's two concrete races and last year's race, he's got to be a favorite.

Most people would -- fairly -- point to Kyle Larson ($14,000), though. Larson has a top-10 finish in six of his last seven starts at Bristol's paved oval, and he's led at least 175 laps three times in that span. It wouldn't shock anyone to see him out front for plenty of the race.

However, I can't really point toward anyone behind these two outside of RFK Racing. Chris Buescher ($10,500) won last September's event and led 169 laps, and Brad Keselowski ($11,500) also led 109 laps before an issue. These guys are salaried as contenders when they're actually favorites of both Jim's model and my median-lap blend. That's pretty sweet.

William Byron ($13,000) had a top-six median time at both concrete tracks this year and held a top-10 median at last fall's race here. He's just a rock-solid contender, but Byron hasn't contended for wins recently, and he's still salaried near the top of the field.

The fastest median time in last year's Bristol race belonged to Christopher Bell ($12,500), who won the dirt event in April here if you're a believer in positive vibes. Bell has flashed on either surface at Bristol, and he also posted the fifth-best median at Dover in May.

Rounding out the contenders, Kevin Harvick ($9,500) trails only Larson in average finish at Bristol since the start of 2020 (6.0), so he'll likely be a player this weekend. Kyle Busch ($12,000) is an eight-time winner at Bristol in the Cup Series; you'd be dumb to cross him off before the weekend. Finally, Chase Elliott ($11,000) also has to be in the conversation despite being a non-playoff driver after leading at least 70 laps in the past two events. He also won the 2020 NASCAR All-Star Race here.

I'm a bit more skeptical about Ryan Blaney ($10,000) than Jim's sims. Blaney had the fastest median time at Dover earlier this year, and his blend is certainly bogged down by crash damage in the 2022 night race. I'll still buy in if he's lightning-quick in practice.

However, I have a hard time seeing myself target Martin Truex Jr. ($9,000) at arguably his worst track. Truex has just one top-10 finish in the last eight points-paying races at Bristol, and it's never been his strength. On the flip side, Dover and Nashville have been, so I think his fifth-place median blend is specifically overselling his ability here.

I'm expecting to have shares of Joey Logano ($8,000) at a solid track for him. Before a mechanical issue last year, he posted a top-11 finish in seven of eight races at Bristol. Logano is close enough to the playoff line to expect a top-notch effort.

As a teammate of Hamlin and Bell, Ty Gibbs ($7,500) should be an interesting value plug, too. Gibbs has the 11th-best median lap blend and has solid form in general, earning a top-15 finish in six of his last seven races on non-drafting ovals.

Erik Jones ($7,000) continues to surge after a third-place finish in Kansas, and he's no stranger to success here. Since the start of 2020, Jones trails only Larson, Harvick, and A.J. Allmendinger ($5,500) with an average finish of 9.6. Allmendinger also won 2021's Xfinity Series race here before the seventh-place Cup Series effort in 2022. I'd peg both of them as a horse for the course.

Finally, I'll be watching supreme short-track talent in practice to see if we have two final gems in the punting tier. Carson Hocevar ($5,000) has scored top-20 finishes in his first two starts as a teammate to Jones, and Ryan Preece ($4,500) has been exclusively dangerous as a short-track specialist this year. He finished fifth at Richmond and led 135 laps in Martinsville before speeding on pit road.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.