NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: 4EVER 400

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview this weekend's 4EVER 400 Presented by Mobil 1 at Homestead-Miami Speedway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

Last weekend's winner might have significantly affected this weekend's outlook.

If Kyle Larson didn't lock himself into the championship race two weeks from Sunday by virtue of the win at Las Vegas, he would have been a handful to deal with here. If last year's Miami race went totally green, Larson would have finished over two laps in front of all but two other competitors. It was one of the most dominant efforts in the modern era of NASCAR. Thankfully for his competitors, his team's focus has likely shifted to its Phoenix setup to win the title.

Larson's style melds perfectly for this worn, 1.5-mile oval where the preferred groove is sealed right next to the wall without touching it. Frankly, I've been looking forward to this race all year with how well this package has performed on intermediate tracks. This should be a good one.

Though much earlier than the race, practice and qualifying will once again be a conjoined endeavor. The early-morning session does have me a bit less reliant on those times than normal given how much hotter and slicker the surface will be in the middle of the day on Sunday.

General Lineup Strategy

For the first time all year, we'll run back-to-back weekends on a 1.5-mile track, so the strategy is similar to last week's. In fact, we've got an identical 267 laps (and 26.7 potential points for them on FanDuel) scheduled this Sunday.

In that race, our discussed trends held. We wanted drivers toward the front to lead laps, and it just so happened that the race's front row -- Larson and Christopher Bell -- combined to lead 194 of the 267 laps. Brad Keselowski led 38 as part of a strategy call and also cracked the perfect lineup.

Keselowski was also the only driver that started outside the top 15 to finish in the race's top 10, which was a continuation of an odd -- yet continually sticky -- trend on 1.5-mile ovals this season. My personal hypothesis is that the return of qualifying has brought the best cars regularly back toward the front, so even with more on-track passing, they end up finishing there by the end of the event.

So, in summary, we'll want to identify drivers grading out well through this week's rankings and some sort of competitive time in practice, and when we find those most likely to dominate the event, we'll want the fastest cars we can find in value spots. Daniel Suarez rounded out last week's perfect lineup after starting 36th but rallying to finish 15th. Even though he didn't qualify well, he was a modest 18th in our pre-weekend ranks and should have still be on the radar starting so far back.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, recent form, track history, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar racetracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

• 2023 Las Vegas (Fall) - 20.0%
• 2023 Kansas (Fall) - 20.0%
• 2023 Darlington (Fall) - 20.0%
• 2023 Darlington (Spring) -20.0%
• 2023 Kansas (Spring) - 10.0%
• 2023 Las Vegas (Spring) - 10.0%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

Even without the utmost focus on this weekend, Kyle Larson ($14,000) is still comfortably the favorite without much argument.

Beyond Larson's dominant 2022 run (199 laps led), Larson also has a top-six median lap time at every race in this weekend's sample, and Jim Sannes' simulations have him winning 23.78% of the time. Quite literally the only case against him is the external focus shifted toward Phoenix, but there's still a lot of money for finishing first this weekend.

Tyler Reddick ($13,000) is the obvious second choice, too. Reddick had two top-four finishes here before an unfortunate accident in last year's event that likely squashed Larson's best competitor. This is Reddick's first run with Toyota, who have won here several times with both Denny Hamlin ($12,500) and Martin Truex Jr. ($11,500). With improved equipment, I think he can make a run at Larson and locking himself into Phoenix.

Hamlin's quick median average does show a challenger for the win, but his sluggish effort in Las Vegas last week (7th) wasn't exactly a statement at a 1.5-miler with tire wear. Still, I threw Darlington into this sample because of the extreme tire wear that is similar, and Hamlin -- of course -- is a 10-time winner at Darlington across NASCAR's top-two series.

William Byron ($12,500) led 32 laps last week before tumbling to 12th in the order, but he's a former Miami winner with elite speed on these track types all year. Larson, Reddick, Hamlin, and Byron -- the top four in my median blend and Jim's sims -- are definitely your Mount Rushmore of contenders this weekend.

Of the remainders, Christopher Bell ($11,000) has a dirt-racing background akin to Reddick and Larson, and he showed he's got current speed by taking it right to Larson's bumper last Sunday in Las Vegas. I think he's fifth on the board without much debate.

Ross Chastain ($10,000) might be peaking at the right time for a second straight Championship 4 appearance. He finished fifth last week in Vegas, and he was third in median lap time here one year ago. I'm hoping he qualifies outside the top five to provide a tiny bit of place-differential juice.

I'm sounding the alarms for Chris Buescher ($8,200), who just hasn't been as effective at tracks with tire wear. Buescher has the 18th-best median blend this weekend and finished 13th last week. For some reason, teammate Brad Keselowski ($9,000) has just been a step ahead on the tire-wear-laden circuits with the eighth-best blend.

Bubba Wallace ($8,000) has contended for the win at 1.5-mile tracks this year, and Wallace also has three straight top-10 finishes at Darlington. At this moment, I'd be stunned if he didn't crack my single-entry lineup at such a low salary, and he doesn't have any obvious results of note at Miami after being suspended for this race a year ago. Ty Gibbs ($7,200) is another fast Toyota in the mix as a value play.

As a potential horse for the course, Austin Dillon ($6,500) has seven straight top-12 finishes here, and his median times aren't awful for the salary. This is a unique venue, so I'm willing to lean more on track history here -- especially when it coincides with a dirt background (like Dillon has) at a track where those skills are extremely transitive.

Others to watch include A.J. Allmendinger ($5,800), who finished third in his first career start here one year ago. Michael McDowell ($4,500) also has three straight top-16 finishes in South Beach. I'm not fixed onto either of them, but if we get positive practice data, it only supports a growing trend of comfort at this circuit.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.