NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Win Simulations: Worldwide Express 250

The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series is always a little bit rowdy. Saturday night might bring some extra chaos.

The Worldwide Express 250 at Richmond is the final race before the playoffs, meaning it's the final chance drivers outside the cutline have to lock themselves in.

Right now, Matt DiBenedetto, Nick Sanchez, and Matt Crafton are the final three drivers in on points. But Stewart Friesen is just nine points below the cutline, and some feisty trucks are lurking behind them, too.

Can anybody pull off a surprise win at Richmond to make the playoffs? Or should we expect the regulars to stay at the front?

Here's what my win simulations are saying prior to practice and qualifying.

Corey Heim is -- once again -- the driver to beat. Even with FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds putting him at +280 to win, I'm in line with the market. The implied odds there are 26.3%, identical to the win simulations.

Among those not yet in the playoffs, Friesen is the one with the best chance to disrupt. He's at 3.5% to win. That's lower than his 5.3% implied odds at +1800, but he doesn't project to go quietly into the night.

One darkhorse not to ignore is Tyler Ankrum. He's just +10000 to win at FanDuel, but I've got him a bit above that at 1.6%. Ankrum had great runs in Darlington and IRP last year -- both tracks that feature big tire falloff -- and he was fast this year in Nashville, another flat track. Ankrum's a longshot for a reason, but sitting 71 points below the cutoff, a win is his only path to the playoffs.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.