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NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Win Simulations: UNOH 200
Thursday. Night. Thunder.
What more could you ask for as an appetizer for a sick weekend of racing?
The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series kicks off back-to-back-to-back nights of racing at Bristol with Thursday's UNOH 200. And while Bristol is always a thrill, it's a bit extra fun this week.
A few weeks ago, Ty Majeski's team got popped with a big penalty for bleeding air from the tires, an aid to the truck on the long run. And in that weekend's Milwaukee race, Majeski's speed was just fine after he stole the show in both Richmond and IRP.
Majeski is a short-track ace, so he should still be solid. But there's now extra uncertainty at the top.
You can see that a bit in my model's win simulations for tonight's race. Nobody really pulls away from the pack, even with Cup Series drivers not allowed into the field.
Driver | Win Sims | Podium | Top 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Heim | 18.7% | 45.0% | 61.3% |
| Ty Majeski | 14.3% | 36.0% | 53.6% |
| Carson Hocevar | 12.9% | 34.0% | 49.9% |
| Zane Smith | 10.5% | 30.4% | 45.6% |
| Christian Eckes | 7.9% | 22.3% | 37.0% |
| Grant Enfinger | 5.1% | 17.3% | 29.9% |
| Nick Sanchez | 4.9% | 15.7% | 26.9% |
Although FanDuel Sportsbook doesn't have Truck Series betting odds up yet, I can tell you with certainty that I'm higher than market on Corey Heim. (UPDATE: FanDuel has since published Truck Series odds, and Heim is +500. That puts his implied odds at 16.7%, below the sims' mark of 18.7%.)
The Truck Series has run seven races on more driver-centric, non-drafting ovals this year. In those, Heim has just one win, but he has had a top-five average running position in every single race. He has constantly been in contention, even if he doesn't have the wins to show for it.
That may not be enough to justify the model having him above Majeski. But I do agree that other books are underselling Heim's abilities a bit.
The bigger value lies in a longshot, though. That's Nick Sanchez.
Sanchez doesn't have the same track record as Heim on driver-centric tracks. He has just two top-10 finishes in those seven races.
But one of those top-10s was a third-place finish with a fifth-place average running position in Nashville, another concrete track. He also had a top-10 average running position in Darlington, IRP, and Milwaukee. He's young, so there are plenty of incidents, but he has speed.
Sanchez's win odds in the model are just 4.9%, and maybe even that is too high. But with other sportsbooks viewing Sanchez as a pure afterthought, now might be a good time to buy into that speed and talent. (UPDATE: FanDuel's opening Truck Series odds have Sanchez at +4000, putting his implied odds at 2.4%.)
Have bets you like for the NASCAR Cup or Xfinity Series at Bristol? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to check where they're at.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
