It has been a firmly odd year for Zane Smith.

The defending NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series champ won two of the first four races and was second in another. It looked like he was on his way to another dominant season.

But he hasn't won since, thanks to a string of crashes and other issues.

I think there's a chance he gets back on track this weekend.

The Truck Series has been to a bunch of road courses and short tracks the past few months. Smith is solid on road courses but has largely struggled on the shorter, flat tracks.

High-speed tracks have been a different discussion. Of Smith's eight podiums, three have come on non-drafting tracks longer than a mile in length. He had a fifth-place average running position in another that went to waste in the final few laps.

When speed has gone up, so have Smith's win odds. And as a result, my model is very high on him this week -- potentially higher than it should be.

Here's the full pre-practice run of sims for the Kansas Lottery 200.

The model views Smith and Corey Heim as the runaway favorites. But FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Truck Series betting odds have Ty Majeski and Carson Hocevar on the same level as those two.

Typically, when a model differs greatly from the market, the market's more likely to be correct. So, there's a good chance my model is underselling Smith's recent struggles or the recent speed for Majeski and Hocevar.

But I do understand why the model sits where it is. Smith has had a top-five average running position in six of seven career Kansas races, and he had great speed this year in Nashville, Texas, and Vegas. This track type suits him well.

I think the model is too high on Smith, but I also think the market is a bit too low. That makes Smith enticing at +450.

The same could be said about Heim, who is also well above his 18.2% implied odds at +450. Heim has had a top-five average running position in five of seven races at higher-speed, non-drafting ovals this year, and he finished runner-up three times. He's due for a win soon.

To me, this is a spot where you can easily justify a bet on either Smith or Heim. If you're worried about Smith's form, dig into Heim. But if you want to bet on a guy who has long been a force on tracks similar to Kansas, Smith stands out. Either way, those are the two guys most worthy of our attention before we see trucks on the track.

Have a driver you like entering Kansas? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series betting odds to see where the market has them.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.