In this week's NASCAR Cup Series betting guide, we talked about the dynamics of the championship race. There, a driver in the Championship Four has won every year it has been a winner-take-all event.

That's less true in the Craftsman Truck Series, though a similar discussion is necessary.

This will be the fourth time the Truck Series has held its championship in Phoenix. A championship-eligible driver has won two of the previous three, but Chandler Smith spoiled the party in 2021 as Ben Rhodes won the championship while finishing third.

My model doesn't know how to account for motivation/drivers deferring to others. So if you want to use these to bet, please know that the model is likely underselling the championship drivers, even if it's not a lock that one of the four wins.

We'll get into the full sims in a second. But as for the championship, here's what the model has for that.

Corey Heim is the model's favorite to win the race, even before accounting for motivation. Carson Hocevar is third while Ben Rhodes and Grant Enfinger lag behind. That's not to say they can't do it -- 14.4% is far from nothing -- but Heim is the clear favorite by my numbers.

And as mentioned, that applies to the full race, too. Again, please keep in mind that these sims do not account for motivation and, thus, should be taken with a grain of salt on non-championship drivers.

The pitch on Heim is pretty simple. He has dominated shorter tracks this year. He won in both Bristol and Martinsville, and he has had a top-five average running position in all seven races on paved tracks 1.25 miles or shorter in length.

That may not be enough to bet Heim to win the race this week. But if you can get him to win the championship at +165 or longer, Heim is worth consideration.

Have a driver you want to bet for Friday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.