NASCAR Betting Picks: Xfinity 500

Desperation is about to be through the roof in the NASCAR Cup Series.

Sunday's Xfinity 500 in Martinsville is the final chance drivers have to lock in a spot in next week's championship race. Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick have already advanced, but superstars Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott are all on the outside looking in. Blaney and Elliott, specifically, will likely need a win to advance.

Those four drivers, though, have combined for nine career wins here, and the two guys above the cut line -- William Byron and Christopher Bell -- are past winners, as well. It's going to be a slugfest.

Lucky for us, we don't have to dip outside that pool to find betting value on FanDuel. I've got three of the six drivers not currently locked in as values relative to FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds, and I'd like to start my betslip with two of them to win outright.

Let's start there, and then we can circle back and add non-outrights as the weekend progresses.

Best Bets for NASCAR in Martinsville

Ryan Blaney to Win (+750)

(UPDATE: Blaney has since shortened to +600 to win, which is 14.3% implied odds. Thus, the value here has dried up.)

Blaney won this race last year to advance to the championship race, where he went on to claim his first title.

The latter half of that statement may still be difficult. But I wouldn't be shocked if he goes back-to-back in Martinsville.

Even before that win, Martinsville was a great track for Blaney. He has led 140-plus laps here three times, and he has four top-fives in five Next-Gen races here. This spring, Blaney finished fifth despite not having a great car.

Add that track history with decent speed on short, flat tracks this year, and my model has Blaney at 13.4% to win, up from his 11.8% implied odds. Considering he's as short as +500 at other sportsbooks, +750 is super attractive to me.

Christopher Bell to Win (+1300)

(UPDATE: Bell is still +1300 to win, but my model is higher on him now than it was entering the weekend thanks to quality practice data. Even starting 16th, Bell is the best outright value on the board for me.)

In 2023, it was Blaney who won Martsinville to advance to the championship.

In 2022, that was Bell. And while he doesn't need a win Sunday, I think +1300 is way too long for how good he has been on this track type.

Bell already has wins at both Phoenix and New Hampshire on his resume this season. He was also fourth in Iowa and had a fourth-place average running position in Gateway. He has been the guy to beat on short, flat tracks.

Outside of that 2022 win, Bell has struggled in Martinsville. He has just two other top-10s and nine other laps led across eight races. It's definitely not his best track. But that race proved he has upside, and his form on other flat tracks is elite.

That's why my model has Bell at 9.0% to win, up from 7.1% implied. I feel better about backing Blaney, but +1300 is long enough where I'd prefer to have both on my card.

Mid-Week Addition: Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+490)

(UPDATE: Suarez has since lengthened to +1000 to finish top 10, which is -- quite frankly -- bizarre given his practice times. He'll start 20th. It's a bummer to have gotten a worse number earlier, but Suarez is still a value even at the original value of +490 to me, making +1000 a wild discount.)

I was on Daniel Suarez back in the spring at this track. He thanked me by getting caught speeding on pit road and finishing 22nd.

Let's give it a crack again.

Suarez has generally been solid on short, flat tracks this year. He finished 10th in the fall Richmond race with a 9th-place average running position, and he was 13th in Phoenix and 9th in Iowa.

This isn't a huge surprise, given Suarez has generally been fine on this track type in the Next-Gen era. In 20 races, he has 4 top-10s, a 20.0% rate. His implied odds here are 17.0%.

I'm a bit above his past rate as my model has Suarez at 26.0% due to underrated pace in Martinsville. He has a pair of top-10 average running positions here in five Next-Gen races with no quality finishes to show for it. That leads to his being underrated in the market, and I'm comfortable adding him as a result.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 10 (+300)

Nearly all of the hold in FanDuel's top-10 markets lies with the favorites, giving us really enticing value lower in the order. That includes Suarez, as laid out in the updated note above. But Bubba Wallace is a big beneficiary, as well.

Martinsville is a good track for Wallace. In five Next-Gen races here, he has three top-10s and an 11th-place finish. That includes a fourth-place finish this spring validated by a fourth-place average running position.

The speed was there for Wallace in practice, too, as he was top-10 in both 10- and 15-lap average. I'm way off market on Wallace with his top-10 odds at 46.0% for me versus 25.0% implied. I agree with the model and think Wallace is undervalued.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Todd Gilliland to Finish Top 10 (+900)

For Wallace and Suarez, I can kind of understand why the market is so low on them as they will start 19th and 20th, respectively.

It's a bit tougher to understand Todd Gilliland, who will start 13th.

Gilliland -- like Wallace and Suarez -- was good in practice. He was 8th in single-lap speed, 5th in 10-lap, and 11th in 15-lap. All the Saturday data was good.

Additionally, my model showed value on Gilliland at +400 to finish top 10 even before the weekend; I just liked the Suarez bet more. Gilliland has a win here in the Truck Series, was 10th in this race last year, and was 13th in the spring.

In other words, I can't find a great reason his implied top 10 odds would be 10.0%. I've got him at 37.6%, so maybe I'm way too high on Gilliland. But I also think the market is too low with his true odds sitting somewhere in the middle.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.