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NASCAR Betting Picks: Cup Series Championship Race

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes

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NASCAR Betting Picks: Cup Series Championship Race

As always, there are tons of dynamics at play for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix.

Although only four drivers -- Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Joey Logano, and Tyler Reddick -- are eligible to win the championship, 35 other drivers are still in the field and could win the race. Be sure you know which market you're betting before you place your wagers.

In the time NASCAR has done a one-race championship, a non-championship driver has won the race only once. But that one occurrence was last year, and the non-championship field this year is super strong. So, it's a different dynamic than what we've had in the past.

Thus, if I'm betting one of the Championship Four, I'm going to do so via the championship odds. And I do see value there in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

Let's start off with my championship pick and then dive into where I see value elsewhere for Sunday's race.

Best Bets for NASCAR at Phoenix

Ryan Blaney to Win the Championship (+250)

To reiterate, this is a bet on Blaney to win the championship, not the race. He has to beat just three other drivers, and my model thinks he does so often enough for me to bet on his going back-to-back.

Prior to practice and qualifying, here's the championship odds my model assigns to each driver.

Driver
Championship Odds
Ryan Blaney35.8%
William Byron24.5%
Tyler Reddick20.7%
Joey Logano19.0%

Blaney's implied odds at +250 are just 28.6%, so I'm pretty far above market on him. And I agree with the model.

Blaney has torched Phoenix in the Next-Gen era. In five races, he has five top-five finishes, including three runner-ups. One of those was in 2022 where he played wingman to his teammate, Logano, to help Logano claim the championship. Last year, Blaney won a championship of his own by finishing second to Ross Chastain.

Not only did Blaney have a lightning fast car last week in Martinsville to advance, but he was great in both Iowa and Gateway earlier in the year, too, and those tracks have at least some crossover with Phoenix. He's a deserved favorite, and at least to me, he's a value to notch championship No. 2 on Sunday.

Chase Elliott to Finish Top 5 in the Race (+240)

Chase Elliott is not a part of the Championship Four and could play a support role for his teammate, Byron. But he has been too good on short, flat tracks this year for me to pass up +240 odds on a top-five finish.

The Cup Series has run eight races on what I would deem similar-ish tracks this year. In those eight races, Elliott has four top-fives, three of which were podiums. That includes last week at Martinsville, where Elliott finished second behind Blaney, missing out on racing for his second championship.

Elliott is yet to record a top-10 at Phoenix in the Next-Gen era, but he had three straight top-fives prior to that, including a win in the 2020 Championship Race. This spring, Elliott was top-seven in both stages and had a 10th-place average running position. With how strong he has been lately, my model has his top-five odds at 35.7%, up from 29.4% implied.


New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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