NASCAR Betting Picks: Cup Series Championship Race

As always, there are tons of dynamics at play for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix.

Although only four drivers -- Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Joey Logano, and Tyler Reddick -- are eligible to win the championship, 35 other drivers are still in the field and could win the race. Be sure you know which market you're betting before you place your wagers.

In the time NASCAR has done a one-race championship, a non-championship driver has won the race only once. But that one occurrence was last year, and the non-championship field this year is super strong. So, it's a different dynamic than what we've had in the past.

Thus, if I'm betting one of the Championship Four, I'm going to do so via the championship odds. And I do see value there in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

Let's start off with my championship pick and then dive into where I see value elsewhere for Sunday's race.

Best Bets for NASCAR at Phoenix

Ryan Blaney to Win the Championship (+250)

(UPDATE: Blaney has since shortened to +200 to win the championship. He's still a value there for me, and you can see the updated sims below the original table.)

To reiterate, this is a bet on Blaney to win the championship, not the race. He has to beat just three other drivers, and my model thinks he does so often enough for me to bet on his going back-to-back.

Prior to practice and qualifying, here's the championship odds my model assigns to each driver.

Blaney's implied odds at +250 are just 28.6%, so I'm pretty far above market on him. And I agree with the model.

Blaney has torched Phoenix in the Next-Gen era. In five races, he has five top-five finishes, including three runner-ups. One of those was in 2022 where he played wingman to his teammate, Logano, to help Logano claim the championship. Last year, Blaney won a championship of his own by finishing second to Ross Chastain.

Not only did Blaney have a lightning fast car last week in Martinsville to advance, but he was great in both Iowa and Gateway earlier in the year, too, and those tracks have at least some crossover with Phoenix. He's a deserved favorite, and at least to me, he's a value to notch championship No. 2 on Sunday.

(UPDATE: The sims below are how the championship picture looks in my model after practice and qualifying. Blaney is still the favorite despite starting 17th, and he's still a value at +200 on FanDuel.)

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Prediction

Chase Elliott to Finish Top 5 in the Race (+240)

(UPDATE: Elliott has since shortened to +230 to finish top 5. He was decent in both practice and qualifying, so my model still has him at a value, putting his top 5 odds at 37.4%.)

Chase Elliott is not a part of the Championship Four and could play a support role for his teammate, Byron. But he has been too good on short, flat tracks this year for me to pass up +240 odds on a top-five finish.

The Cup Series has run eight races on what I would deem similar-ish tracks this year. In those eight races, Elliott has four top-fives, three of which were podiums. That includes last week at Martinsville, where Elliott finished second behind Blaney, missing out on racing for his second championship.

Elliott is yet to record a top-10 at Phoenix in the Next-Gen era, but he had three straight top-fives prior to that, including a win in the 2020 Championship Race. This spring, Elliott was top-seven in both stages and had a 10th-place average running position. With how strong he has been lately, my model has his top-five odds at 35.7%, up from 29.4% implied.

Late-Week Addition: Brad Keselowski to Finish Top 10 (+180)

(UPDATE: Keselowski has since lengthened to +320. This is due to a poor qualifying effort, and he wasn't that fast in practice, either. He's a value for me -- I still have him at 31.9% -- but the enthusiasm has fallen.)

In general, top-10 odds -- to me -- are too top-heavy this week, creating gobs of value on non-championship drivers within the market.

I'm going to run through my three favorites here. But honestly, a bunch of mid-range drivers are values for me, so I think broadly just attacking this market is wise if you find a driver you like.

Let's start with Brad Keselowski, who my model has at nearly even money to finish top 10. Kez was fourth in the first Phoenix race, third in Gateway, and ninth last week in Martinsville. He also had a pair of top-13 average running positions last year in Phoenix. Only 35.7% implied odds sells him short.

Late-Week Addition: Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+900)

(UPDATE: Suarez has since shortened to +750. That's still a value for me even though Suarez qualified poorly.)

Daniel Suarez is the biggest value of the bunch for me. I've got him at 31.8% to finish top 10, more than 20 percentage points of his 10.0% implied odds here.

Suarez has one top-10 and two additional top-13s in five Next-Gen Phoenix races. This year, he finished 13th and had a 14th-place average running position.

Suarez has been solid since then, too, claiming top-10 finishes in both Iowa and the second Richmond race, both supported by a top-10 average running position. He's not as consistent as Keselowski, but the upside for a top-10 run certainly exists.

Late-Week Addition: Austin Dillon to Finish Top 10 (+1400)

(UPDATE: Dillon is still +1400. He qualified poorly, so my model has cooled on him. He's still above his implied odds, though, at 9.3% for me versus 6.7% implied. Thus, I don't regret betting him earlier in the week. Just wish the needle had moved the other direction.)

Austin Dillon had the best car in Richmond, which carries some similarities to Phoenix. Thus, getting him at +1400 just to finish top 10 is super enticing.

Dillon followed up the Richmond run by finishing seventh last week in Martinsville, his third top-10 of the year on a short, flat track (with Iowa being the other).

Phoenix, specifically, has never been an amazing track for Dillon as he has just 2 top-10s in 21 career races. But even that is a 9.5% rate, above his 6.7% implied odds here. When you add in his solid form on this track type, my model has him at 20.6% to finish top 10 on Sunday.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 10 (+460)

Similar to the other drivers we targeted with top-10 bets, Bubba Wallace, unfortunately, didn't qualify well. He'll start 29th.

But his lengthening to +460 is an overreaction.

Wallace was decent in practice. He was 11th in single-lap speed and 9th in 10-lap average. It was just qualifying that went poorly.

Wallace was strong in this race last year, posting an eighth-place average running position and finishing 10th. He showed upside on short, flat tracks this year with top-fives in both Martinsville and Richmond. Thus, my model has him well above his 17.9% implied odds at 35.1%.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.