NASCAR Betting Guide: YellaWood 500

Pack tracks always invite chaos in the NASCAR Cup Series.

Sunday's YellaWood 500 in Talladega will see that cranked up a notch.

The Round of 12 in the Cup Series playoffs is a wild one. Last week in Texas saw several playoff drivers run into issues, putting them in a hole with two races left before the cutoff.

The only problem? Those two races are here in Talladega and then at the Charlotte roval. Both are absolute wild cards.

For drivers who struggle on road courses, Talladega may be their best chance to rack up points or a win in order to advance to the Round of 8. For others, they're just trying to avoid calamity.

But we also have to remember that there are 26 drivers not in the playoffs who would also love to take home that trophy. And one of them is a value in my simulations.

Let's run through the spots where my model is showing value relative to FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for Sunday, starting with a guy whose hopes of repeating as champion went up in smoke two weeks ago.

Joey Logano to Win (+1400)

Joey Logano was eliminated in the Round of 16, meaning this race matters a bit less to him. It also means he could push his teammate, Ryan Blaney, to a win as Blaney is still alive.

But given Team Penske's track record of not playing nice -- and the slim odds the above scenario is actually in play late -- I'm comfortable riding with Logano.

At +1400, Logano's implied odds of a win are 6.7%. My model makes him the runner-up favorite at 8.2%, trailing only the aforementioned Blaney. As we'll discuss later, the model is broadly into Ford this week, but let's outline why it's on Logano, specifically.

Logano won this year's Atlanta spring race and was one corner away from winning the Daytona 500. He also finished fifth in the summer Daytona race. The guy has skill.

That has shown up at Talladega in the past, as well. He's a three-time winner here (10.3% win rate), and he has six additional top-fives in 29 races. But -- potentially due to the lack of playoff motivation -- Logano has just the fourth-shortest odds.

In general, it's easier for me to back a favorite in Talladega than Daytona because the wider track leads to a bit less chaos. Logano can be a benefactor of that, and I think +1400 is long enough for us to bite and feel good about it.

Ford to Win (+130)

I've already mentioned that Blaney and Logano are the two favorites in my model. The third most likely winner is Brad Keselowski, another Ford.

In fact, six of the top eight most likely winners in my model will have a blue oval on the nose this weekend. So, why not bundle them all together?

The model puts Ford's win odds at 49.0%. The implied odds at +130 are 43.5%. So, technically, this is a much better value than we get on Logano individually.

As of now, eight drivers have higher win odds in my model than their implied odds at FanDuel. Of those eight, five are Fords. For some of them (primarily Kevin Harvick), I'm a bit skeptical that they have the juice to win the dang thing. But even if I put Harvick's win odds at zero, this is still a value for me.

Logano's the fun bet thanks to the longer odds. But from a math perspective, if you're putting just one thing on your betslip, it should likely be this one, instead.

Martin Truex Jr. to Win (+2500)

One of the non-Fords showing value in my model is Martin Truex Jr. Truex has infamously never won on a superspeedway, which may make this feel odd.

But Truex is better than his finishes indicate, and I don't think this is a Kyle Larson situation where Truex is simply incapable of winning here.

You can see at least some evidence of this in looking at stages. Just since the start of the Next-Gen era, Truex has won two stages in last year's Daytona 500, and he added another stage win last month in Daytona. This has occasionally translated to good finishes, too, as Truex was fifth in last year's playoff Talladega race.

In 11 pack races during the Next-Gen era, Truex has had a top-16 average running position 10 times. Typically, when he runs into issues, it happens late. He's at least giving himself a shot at a good finish.

Truex has finished runner-up twice in Daytona, and now Toyotas have more pack-racing support thanks to the addition of 23XI Racing. I wouldn't be shocked if Truex eventually does notch a pack-racing win before he retires. My model puts the odds of that happening Sunday at 5.0%, up from 3.9% implied.

Have a driver you want to bet for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see where their odds settle in.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.