NASCAR Betting Guide: Xfinity 500

The stakes for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race can't get any higher.

It's the penultimate race of the season, meaning this is the final chance drivers in the Round of 8 have to punch their ticket to the Championship Race.

Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell are already locked in. William Byron has a 30-point cushion, leaving five drivers to battle for likely just one spot.

And I do think a guy in that range has a shot to win on Sunday.

Let's dig into what my model is saying about Sunday's Xfinity 500 at Martinsville, outlining which drivers may be undervalued relative to FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

Ryan Blaney to Win (+1200)

(UPDATE: Blaney has since shortened to +700 to win. The implied odds there (12.5%) are higher than my model's new win odds at 11.5% post-qualifying. Blaney's no longer a value at his current odds.)

Ryan Blaney is currently 10 points above the cutline thanks to a superb run in Homestead. He carries that advantage into one of his better tracks.

Although Blaney has never won in Martinsville, he does have 7 top-fives in 15 career races. He has led 140 or more laps twice, and he had a top-six average running position in both of last year's races.

Blaney has been solid on short, flat tracks this year. He finished runner-up in Phoenix and had a sixth-place average running position in New Hampshire. Even in a down year, Blaney has been decent on this track type.

As a result, my model has Blaney at 10.3% to win, up from 7.7% implied. He'll be racing for points, but don't be surprised if he earns his spot in the next round with a win.

Chase Elliott to Finish Top 10 (-110)

(UPDATE: Elliott's top-10 odds in my model are down to 45.4% post-qualifying. FanDuel doesn't currently have top-10 markets up, but Elliott would need to be +130 or longer to consider adding.)

I do have some value on Chase Elliott to win at +1700. He's 6.2% in my model, up from 5.6% implied. But I think the value is better on him in this market.

There, I've got Elliott at 56.5% to finish top 10 versus 52.4% implied. Martinsville history helps Elliott there plenty as he has finished top 10 in 9 of the past 11 races here.

Although one of Elliott's top-10s did come this spring, he has struggled on short, flat tracks. In a three-race sample, his best average running position and best finish are both 10th. So we haven't seen the upside we're used to out of him.

That's part of what pushes me away from the outright when it's sitting at +1700. I'd want more leniency there. But with the top-10 bet, he can have a mid-tier car and still cash the ticket as he did this spring.

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 10 (+200)

(UPDATE: Bowman's top-10 odds in my model are down to 28.7% post-qualifying. He'd need to be around +275 or longer to consider adding when FanDuel re-opens top-10 markets.)

This is the same bet at the same odds we got last week, and that didn't go well. Alex Bowman got a lap down early in Homestead and struggled to get his race back on track.

That's not enough to push me off Bowman here.

Bowman has finished top 10 in 4 of 10 Martinsville races with Hendrick Motorsports. That includes a win in 2021, and he has finished 12th and 11th the past two trips here.

Even in what has been a down year for Bowman, he has still been fine on the short, flat tracks. He had top-10s in both Phoenix and Richmond; his lone finish outside the top 14 came in the other Richmond race. I've got good value here with Bowman at 42.4% to finish top 10, up from 33.3% implied.

Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+280)

(UPDATE: Although Suarez qualified poorly, his top-10 odds in my model are up to 39.1% thanks to quality speed in practice. That puts his fair top-10 odds at +156, so he'd be worth an add if he's longer than that when FanDuel re-opens this market.)

This one comes down to whether you buy into Daniel Suarez's recent gains at Martinsville. I do -- at least enough to justify this bet.

This track used to be a nightmare for Suarez. Even his first three races here with Trackhouse Racing resulted in finishes of 28th or worse.

The past two have been much different. Suarez's average running positions have been ninth and sixth, easily the two best of his career here. If it were one race, I'd be willing to ignore it, but his doing it again this spring changed the equation.

When you combine that with Suarez's form, my model has Suarez at 35.3% to finish top 10, up from 26.3%. I wouldn't blame you if you passed on this given the long-term data on Suarez at the track. Personally, I buy into it enough to side with the model.

Post-Qualifying Addition: William Byron to Win (+1200)

William Byron qualified 16th on Saturday, but he had great speed in practice, even when you ding him for being in the faster group. I think he should be able to work his way through the pack, making him a good value at this number.

Byron was Group A in practice, which was the faster group. But even when you boost Group B, Byron still ranked third in single-lap speed and second in five-lap average.

Byron doesn't tend to qualify as well as he runs in the race at Martinsville, something he noted after yesterday's session. In Byron's six career top-10 finishes at the track, his average starting position is 11.7. It's a long enough race where his speed should flash by the end.

Considering all of this, my model has Byron at 10.2% to win, up from 7.7% implied. He's the biggest value relative to FanDuel's odds post-qualifying..

Have a driver you want to bet for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds to see where the market's at right now.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.