NASCAR Betting Guide: South Point 400

One of the most important things in betting is being price sensitive. For NASCAR, you're not betting a driver; you're betting a price.

For example, I adore Tyler Reddick this week. I was hoping when I ran my model that I'd be able to bet him.

Unfortunately for me, the market loved him, too. You can't get Reddick at longer than +900 at regulated books, and with my win sims pinning him at 9.8% to win, that's not long enough for me. It's a bummer, but the price is important.

The same applies to fading a driver or team. I may not want to bet against someone, but if the market on the opposing side is intriguing enough, it may be +EV to do so.

That's what we get for this week's South Point 400 at Las Vegas. Even though I think Toyota's in a great spot to mop up, the odds in a matchup against them are forcing me to re-consider.

Let's dig into that and other spots where my model is showing value relative to FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for Las Vegas.

Chris Buescher Over Christopher Bell (+136)

As evidenced by the love for Reddick, I'm high on Toyota this week. And with how well they've run at high-speed tracks, how could you not be? With Christopher Bell driving for them while Chris Buescher pilots a Ford, this may seem odd.

But it all comes down to the +136 on Buescher's side.

That puts Buescher's implied odds of topping Bell at just 42.4%. I could understand that if the two were in different tiers in terms of recent form. I just don't think they are.

Buescher and RFK Racing have been the lone Ford team to truly pop on these higher-speed tracks of late. Buescher won Michigan and had a top-seven average running position in both Darlington and Texas. In eight races at higher-speed, non-pack tracks, Bell's best average running position is eighth.

Part of that has been due to incidents, and Bell has often rebounded for quality finishes. But this team hasn't had quite the same race pace as the other Toyotas, and they have a propensity for self-inflicted wounds, whether on the track or on pit road.

As a result, my model not only has Bell and Buescher in the same tier, but it gives Buescher the slight edge prior to qualifying. So while I'm terrified of betting a Ford over a Toyota this week, when you make it +136 on this specific pairing, I'm okay pulling the trigger and betting on continued speed for RFK Racing.

Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+260)

(UPDATE: FanDuel doesn't currently have top-10 markets posted, but after qualifying, my model has Suarez's T10 odds at 20.5%. That puts his fair top-10 odds at +388, so I wouldn't add Suarez at the above number if he re-opens there once markets are reposted.)

As mentioned above, the Cup Series has run eight races on bigger, non-pack tracks this year. Daniel Suarez has finished top-10 in half of them. That alone should make +260 intriguing.

Suarez hasn't always run well in those races. In Texas a few weeks ago, Suarez meandered in the teens most of the race, but late-race cautions allowed him to squeak out an eighth-place finish.

Still, he was in position to take advantage of chaos. In this eight-race sample, Suarez has had a top-15 average running position six times with one of the exceptions being because of a wreck in Pocono. He lurks, and that's what you're looking for at these kinds of odds.

My model puts Suarez's top-10 odds at 34.6%. It's not as high as his 50% clip thus far at tracks in this mold, but it's still easily clear of his implied odds of 27.8%.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Chris Buescher to Win (+1600)

I'm pretty happy with the matchup above, even with Bell having won the pole.

But I'm also willing to shoot for the moon and add Buescher to win the race.

Buescher had great speed on Saturday. He was second in both single-lap speed and five-lap average, and he qualified fifth. And yet his odds lengthened because of how strong the Hendrick cars of Kyle Larson and William Byron looked.

That's fair, for sure. But Buescher was strong, too, and as laid out above, his speed has been superb of late.

My model has Buescher's win odds at 7.2%, up from his implied odds of 5.9%. I wouldn't be shocked if Buescher winds up in victory lane for the fourth time this year.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Bubba Wallace to Win (+2200)

As mentioned above, I really wanted to bet Reddick to win this week. And I do have slight value on him post-qualifying (11.5% for me versus 11.1% implied at +800 at FanDuel).

But the better value lies in betting his 23XI teammate.

Bubba Wallace has 6.3% win odds in my model, up from 4.3% implied at +2200. That's currently the biggest gap for any driver in the field, and it's a spot where I agree with the model.

In eight races on bigger, non-drafting ovals, Wallace has finished inside the top four at a 50.0% clip. That includes the first race in Las Vegas, and he nearly won the playoff race in Texas. Three of those four finishes were backed up by an average running position inside the top eight.

Wallace is no longer in the driver playoffs while Reddick is, but we saw a healthy number of non-playoff drivers win last year. I think Wallace is a legitimate threat to do that again here.

Have a bet you like for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of markets for Las Vegas.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.