NASCAR Betting Guide: Cook Out Southern 500

In most sports, when the playoffs roll around, you know what to expect. You've seen the teams the entire regular season, giving you a firm sample on who's good and who's just an also-ran.

In the NASCAR Cup Series, things are more hectic.

Sure, we've had 26 races leading into Sunday night's playoff opener at Darlington. But in the past 11 races, they've run four road courses, two pack tracks, and two big, fast tracks. Darlington is none of those.

To further complicate matters, some teams -- like RFK Racing -- have made big gains over this stretch. We don't know how well that -- or struggles for other teams -- will translate as we get back into a more "normal" schedule.

Because of this, only one driver in my model has win odds in the double digits. That's Denny Hamlin, barely crossing that threshold at 10.1%. The model thinks a healthy number of drivers could contend for a win and punch their ticket to the second round.

Luckily, at least one of those drivers grades out as being undervalued relative to FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for the Cook Out Southern 500. It's possible the model is baking in too much uncertainty, but I'm on board with it backing this guy for Sunday night.

Let's dig into who that driver is and where else the model is showing value this week.

Tyler Reddick to Win (+1300)

(UPDATE: Reddick has since shortened to +1000 to win. His win odds in my model are 8.5% post-qualifying, and his new implied odds are 9.1%, so Reddick is no longer a value at the new number.)

I'd love to be able to bet on 23XI Racing as an organization to win Sunday. My model's showing value on both Tyler Reddick and teammate Bubba Wallace to win at +1300 and +2800, respectively. If forced to choose, though, I've got more confidence in Reddick to get the job done.

FanDuel's higher than the market on Reddick at 7.1% implied odds to win. But even that's below my model, which puts Reddick's win odds at 8.0%.

The optimism stems from Reddick's strength on tracks with big tire degradation, which is what you see in Darlington. Last year -- with Richard Childress Racing -- Reddick podiumed in both Darlington races. He hasn't duplicated that in 2023, but he has had speed. He posted a fourth-place average running position this month at Richmond, a track at which he has traditionally struggled despite its high tire falloff.

Reddick has never won Darlington, but he has two podiums in the Xfinity Series on top of those last year in Cup, and he has been phenomenal on other tracks with similar characteristics. Even if +1300 is the best you can get on Reddick, I still think he's worth a look.

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 10 (+190)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since lengthened to +350 to finish top 10. My model has him at 27.1%, and the new implied odds are 22.2%. Thus, Bowman's still a value. But he lengthened due to a lack of speed on Saturday, so if you do decide to bet it, it's worth noting the market's move was likely justified.)

Although Alex Bowman's not in the Cup Series playoffs, that doesn't disqualify him from being a quality bet. Last year, non-playoff drivers won all three races in the Round of 16.

I do show value on Bowman to win at +5500. I just think the top-10 bet is the better route.

I've got good value there, as well. Bowman is 39.4% to land a top 10 in my model, up from 34.5% implied.

Bowman has always run well on slick tracks, and 2023 is no different. He had a top-seven average running position in both Fontana and the first Richmond race, and he podiumed in Las Vegas, a spot with more middling tire falloff.

Darlington hasn't been a stellar track for Bowman, but it hasn't been bad, either. He was runner-up here in the first race after the COVID break, and he had a top-10 last year in the Next-Gen car. I just think +190 is a bit too long for a decent driver in Hendrick equipment, regardless of whether he's in the playoffs.

Aric Almirola to Finish Top 10 (+750)

(UPDATE: Almirola has since shortened to +650. That puts his implied odds at 13.3%, and I've got him at 18.1% after he qualified 10th on Saturday. Even at the reduced number, Almirola's still worth consideration.)

Quite frankly, I wasn't expecting to see value in longshot top-10 bets this weekend. Even though Darlington is chaotic, the top of the field tends to center around the studs.

But with Aric Almirola down at +750, I think we can justify taking a swing.

To be clear, my model isn't high on Almirola. It has his top-10 odds at just 17.9%, the 21st-highest mark in the field. But that's still well clear of his 11.8% implied odds. I may be low, but the market is lower.

Part of this is due to what Stewart-Haas Racing showed in Richmond. That track uses a different rules package, so it gets minimal weight in the model. But it's still noteworthy that the non-Kevin Harvick drivers on that team finally showed speed, and it was at a track with big tire falloff. Almirola finished eighth in that one.

He hasn't been entirely out to lunch at other rough-on-tire tracks using this rules package, either. Almirola had a 15th-place average running position in the first Darlington race and finished 13th in Kansas, as well. He at least hasn't been a pure backmarker.

In the spring race, we saw some surprise drivers sneak into the top 10 thanks to late-race chaos. We saw the same thing in last year's playoff race, as well. As a result, I'm willing to buy into the model and believe that Almirola's top-10 odds are better than what the market is saying.

Post-Qualifying Addition: William Byron to Win (+1400)

William Byron -- and the Chevys in general -- lacked speed on Saturday. None of them advanced to the final round of qualifying, and Byron will start 23rd.

Given the emphasis on long-run speed at Darlington, though, I've still got value on Byron to win at a lengthened number.

Byron's implied odds at +1400 are 6.7%. My model has him at 8.1%, which is a decent gap. Byron wasn't bad in practice, ranking ninth in five-lap average and seventh in 10-lap average.

Byron started fourth when he won here in the spring, but in three Next-Gen races at the track, five drivers who started 20th or lower finished in the top five. Single-lap speed isn't a great indicator of race pace, so I'm fine betting on Byron despite the poor effort there.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 10 (+130)

I mentioned earlier in the week that I had value on Wallace at +3000 to win. I still do as he sits at +3000 now. But with +130 available for a top 10, that's my preferred route.

Wallace didn't qualify as well as the other Toyotas, but their strength should still give us confidence. Wallace was sixth in five-lap average, though he slid to 11th in the 10-lap split.

Wallace's three Next-Gen races at Darlington have been strong. He has had a top-13 average running position in all of them, and he converted two of them into top-10 finishes. He finished sixth here in the spring.

My model has Wallace at 45.4% to finish top 10, up from 43.5% implied. I agree with the model in thinking the market is underrating him at that number.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to Finish Top 10 (+350)

Like Wallace, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has shown improvement at Darlington recently. He recorded his first career top-10 here last year, and he had an 11th-place average running position in the spring. There's enough here to justify interest.

Stenhouse will start 25th, but he had decent speed in practice. He ranked fifth in five-lap average and 10th in the 10-lap split. Given that Stenhouse typically struggles in practice and qualifying, that's at least noteworthy.

Stenhouse's form has been stellar the full season. His seven top-10s are the second most for him in a season in his career, and his Daytona win qualified him for the playoffs. My model has him at 26.7% to finish top 10, up from 22.2% implied.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.