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NASCAR Betting Guide: Coke Zero Sugar 400

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes•@JimSannes

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NASCAR Betting Guide: Coke Zero Sugar 400

Ever since the NASCAR Cup Series moved Daytona's summer race to be the regular-season finale, it has been bananas.

Saturday night figures to be no different.

The Coke Zero Sugar 400 is the final chance drivers outside the playoffs have to win or point their way in. Any driver running the full schedule can make the playoffs with a win, putting 17 drivers in a "win and in" scenario with 14 needing a win no matter what.

Austin Dillon did this last year, and William Byron won in 2020 when he wasn't yet locked in. It's a massive wild card.

That's reflected in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR odds for Daytona. No driver has win odds shorter than +1100, meaning the highest implied win odds are 8.3%.

That doesn't necessarily guarantee value, and my model isn't showing much on the board currently. There are two bets I'd be willing to lock in now before qualifying, though, and we can circle back if any others arise later. But here are the two spots I'm most interested in for Saturday night's race.

Erik Jones to Win (+3500)

Erik Jones is one of those drivers in a win-and-in scenario. With the skill he has shown on superspeedways in the Next-Gen era, that's not impossible.

There have been 10 pack races since the start of last year. In those 10, Jones has five top-10 finishes, including four of sixth or better. In one of those -- last year in Talladega -- Jones was leading on the final lap before getting shuffled back to sixth.

This year hasn't been as stellar with Legacy MC slipping in a lame-duck season before they transition to Toyota in 2024. And that move likely prevents them from getting Chevrolet support during this race.

However, Jones still finished sixth in Talladega and eighth in Atlanta this year thanks to his drafting acumen. He already has a Daytona win under his belt, and I've got him at 3.2% to win this weekend versus 2.8% implied.

Kevin Harvick to Podium (+1000)

Kevin Harvick clinched his playoff spot last week, so he can play things more casually on Saturday. Still, I do think he's a contender in these upside markets.

I do have value on Harvick to win. He's 3.9% for me, up from 3.2% implied at +3000. However, his podium implied odds are 9.1% versus my model putting him at 11.2%, so I'm okay with the increased flexibility.

Part of that is some narrative fear. Harvick is the only Stewart-Haas Racing driver currently in the playoffs, meaning he could help push one of the others to victory if given the chance. I'm not sure Harvick would give up a shot to win in his final race at Daytona, but it's at least a slight consideration.

Harvick -- unlike Jones -- has struggled on pack tracks in the Next-Gen era. He made a silly mistake in Atlanta that led to a 30th-place finish, and his best run thus far was a 10th in Talladega last year. But he has still managed a top-20 average running position in every race but the aforementioned Atlanta running, and it has been a top-15 mark in seven of those. He's competitive, at least.

If you want to ride with the narrative and bet Harvick in his final Daytona race, I get it. I'd just rather take the slightly better value and account for the possibility he plays the good teammate role and bet him to podium, instead.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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