NASCAR Betting Guide: Bank of America ROVAL 400

Beginning Sunday in Charlotte, road courses in the NASCAR Cup Series are back to being a headache.

Following this summer's race in Watkins Glen, NASCAR reintroduced stage breaks on road courses, something they had stricken down entering the year.

Planned cautions mean some drivers will stay out to earn points at the end of a stage while others pit. Those who stay out will earn points, but they'll then be behind the 8 ball for the beginning of the second stage, restarting behind those who pitted earlier.

This makes races tougher to predict in general. It's even worse when Charlotte is the final race in the Round of 12, meaning drivers near the cut line have no choice but to prioritize stage points.

We've had six road-course races during the Next-Gen era with stage breaks. The winner of the opening stage has never finished better than 14th at the end of the race.

So, clearly, we need to downgrade drivers racing for points because we're betting on the finishing order, not who will score the most points. But how much do we downgrade those drivers? Are they complete cross-offs? And which drivers will decide to go for the win regardless?

That's the dynamic at play this week. So let's dig into which drivers I'm A) showing value on relative to the market and B) willing to believe in after weighing their playoff positioning.

Christopher Bell to Win (+1800)

(UPDATE: Bell has since shortened to +1000 to win. That puts his implied odds at 9.1%. Following qualifying, my model has Bell's win odds at 8.0%, so you can be happy if you got Bell at +1800, but I wouldn't add at his current price.)

This is super dicey. Christopher Bell is 22 points above the cutline, meaning he's in a good spot. As long as he earns 36 points on Sunday, he will advance, meaning they can almost clinch just by prioritizing stage points.

I still think I want to give Bell a swing, though, because +1800 is too long.

Without accounting for strategies, my model has Bell at 8.2% to win, up from 5.3% implied. This is far and away the biggest value in the field. And, quite frankly, even without running the model, +1800 for the most recent winner at a track is eye-popping.

The other reason I'm good with Bell is that other drivers in worse positions than him have shorter odds. Tyler Reddick (+700) and Kyle Larson (+900) are right at the cutline, guaranteeing they'll race for points, but their implied win odds are double those of Bell. I think that says those two are overvalued, but it seems like Bell is receiving an outsized penalty here even though he's in the best position to advance of the group.

This could wind up looking foolish on Sunday, and I'm willing to admit that. But there are scenarios that could play out that allow Bell to go for the win, and with his speed, I think there's enough here to justify puling the trigger despite the (justifiable) concerns.

Austin Dillon to Finish Top 10 (+350)

Points aren't a concern here as Austin Dillon didn't make the playoffs. On the flip side, he has finished 30th or worse in three straight road course races.

So, why on earth are we checking him out here?

It's because those finishes make things look worse than they were. Dillon was running top-five in Chicago (thanks to strategy) before a late-race crash. He had a 15th-place average running position in Watkins Glen before an ill-timed caution bit him, and then he tangled with Larson to make the finish look even worse.

Dillon has run well at the ROVAL, finishing 10th last year and having a 9th-place average running position the year before. He's not great on these tracks, but he sits in the teens often. As a result, my model has him at 28.0% for a top 10, up from 22.2% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: AJ Allmendinger to Win (+1000)

A lot of the drivers primed to race for points qualified toward the front. That means they'll be in a great position to prioritize stage points in the opening run, paving the way for those not racing for points to get a leg up.

That plays right into AJ Allmendinger's hands.

Allmendinger will start sixth, making him one of the top drivers who can just gun for the win. He ranked third in single-lap speed in practice (after adjusting for group speed differentials) and was sixth in five-lap average.

Allmendinger dominated this track in the Xfinity Series, winning the race four consecutive years. He had a third-place average running position in Cup last year, as well, so we know he can wheel it. My model has Dinger at 10.3% to win, up from 9.1% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ty Gibbs to Win (+2400)

The big counterpoint to betting Allmendinger is that Toyotas seemed dominant on Saturday. They had the five best five-lap averages, even after accounting for group speed differentials, meaning they'll be tough to beat.

We can get around that by betting Ty Gibbs.

Gibbs also can ignore stage points as he's not in the playoffs. He ranked fourth in adjusted single-lap speed and fifth in five-lap average before qualifying 10th.

Gibbs couldn't top Allmendinger in Xfinity at Charlotte, but he did finish runner-up to him last year, leading 24 laps and holding a second-place average running position. He has carried that speed into Cup this year, as evidenced by his fourth-place average running position in Watkins Glen. My model has Gibbs at 5.9% to win, up from 4.0% implied.

Which drivers do you think are undervalued for Sunday? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to get a full rundown of the market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.