We have a fascinating dynamic at play this weekend in the NASCAR Cup Series.

Every time the circuit comes to Homestead, Kyle Larson should be the favorite. He runs the wall better than anybody, and it has led to a bajillion laps led here over the years, even before he was in good equipment.

But Larson already punched his ticket to the Championship Race last weekend, meaning he has no incentive to win on Sunday. If he and his team are playing things optimally, they'll have their eyes on Phoenix.

Granted, Larson was in this same position in 2021. He won the first race of the Round of 8... and then he went out and won the second race, anyway. Turns out he's pretty good.

When you combine Larson's form with his skills in Kansas, my model has him winning 23.8% of the time, which may be the biggest number my model has spit out for a driver in the Cup Series this year. But he's still not a value in the betting market; Larson is +280 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds, which translates to 26.3%.

So, we can't get to Larson, but he absorbs a ton of the win equity. That means we'll have to scrape to find value -- or avoid outrights entirely.

That's the way I'm skewing right now. Let's dive into the spots where my model shows value for Sunday at FanDuel Sportsbook, and maybe we'll be able to add an outright post-qualifying on Saturday.

William Byron to Podium (+200)

(UPDATE: Byron has since lengthened to +230 for a podium. My model has him at 32.6% post-qualifying, which is above his implied odds of 30.3%. It's a bummer to have gotten a worse number earlier in the week, but if you didn't bet Byron then, I do show enough value at the new number to consider adding him.)

I have the slimmest of value on William Byron to win. His implied odds at +750 are 11.8%, and I have him at 11.9%. If his outright odds were to lengthen to +850, I'd sign up in a heartbeat.

But right now, the better value is in Byron's podium odds.

I've got Byron at 35.4% to finish inside the top three, up from 33.3% implied. This market helps us wiggle around Larson's meaty outright odds and gives us wiggle room should Tyler Reddick live up to his full potential on this track.

Byron's no slouch here himself, though. He won here in 2021, and he had a sixth-place average running position last year.

The Cup Series has run eight races in 2023 on tracks that have used this rules package and feature at least moderate tire degradation. In those eight races, Byron has two wins, four podiums, and another fourth-place finish. So while +200 feels short, he has eclipsed that rate in relevant races.

Larson and Reddick deserve the hype they get here. But my model actually projects Byron ahead of Reddick, allowing me to bet Byron without having to fully worry about Larson.

Brad Keselowski to Finish Top 10 (-125)

(UPDATE: Keselowski is still -125 to finish top 10, but my model now has his top-10 odds at 69.6%, way up from the implied mark of 55.6%. The -125 is an even bigger value now than it was earlier in the week.)

Similar to Byron, I do have value on Brad Keselowski to win. It's thin, though, at 5.4%, up from 4.8% implied at +2000.

The value is greater in his top-10 odds.

There, Keselowski is 55.6% to finish top 10, versus my model, which puts him at 59.7%. I'm not surprised at all by that, either, given how stout RFK Racing has been on tracks with heavy tire falloff for the past year and a half. That includes Chris Buescher's win in Richmond, but Keselowski was fifth in Homestead last year, top-six in both Darlington races this year, and seventh in Fontana.

Keselowski also enters with quality form after a fourth-place finish last week in Las Vegas. As a result, I don't hate the idea of betting him outright. I'd just want a bit longer than +2000 there. For now, I'm content with taking the value and betting him to snag another top-10.

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 10 (+200)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since shortened to +175 for a top 10. My model has boosted his odds to 61.7%, though, up from his implied odds of 36.4%, so this is another big potential value, even at reduced odds.)

This has been a rough year for Alex Bowman. He missed time due to a back injury and ultimately didn't qualify for the playoffs.

Those struggles have led to his being undervalued in this market.

Bowman has run six of the eight races on non-short tracks with tire falloff. He has three top-10s and a 12th in that time. This is a 50.0% top-10 rate, but his implied odds here are 33.3%.

My model isn't quite that high, but it does have Bowman in the top 10 48.3% of the time. Bowman has a history of running well on tracks with tire degradation, and he hasn't been hideous at Homestead. I think +200 heavily undersells his potential, and if I were making just one bet for the weekend, this would be it.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Brad Keselowski to Win (+1800)

I could stand pat with the good movement on Keselowski to finish top 10. But his outright odds are super, super tempting after Saturday.

There, Keselowski was seventh in five-lap average and sixth in 10-lap average after adjusting for group speed discrepancies. He then turned that speed into a fourth-place starting position.

The major counterpoint to betting Keselowski outright is that Fords in general didn't look super stout. Keselowski is the only Ford in the top 12 of my model post-qualifying, so we are betting on an outlier.

Still, this has been the case all year where RFK Racing has been forced to carry the blue oval banner. My model has Keselowski at 7.0% to win, up from 5.3% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Kyle Busch to Finish Top 10 (+125)

Typically, the market is higher on Kyle Busch than my model, so it's pretty rare for me to get to bet him. But no complaints here.

Busch's car was decent Saturday. He was eighth in five-lap average and 10th in 10-lap after adjusting for group discrepancies. He qualified 18th, but single-lap speed is a pretty poor indicator of race pace at a track with such huge tire degradation.

After combining this with Busch's form, my model has Busch's top-10 odds at 51.5%. The implied odds are just 44.4%, so Busch is a high-quality option in this market.

Have a driver you want to bet for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to get a full rundown of the markets.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.