NASCAR Best Bets: YellaWood 500

For once, with the NASCAR Cup Series at a pack track, we can turn the chaos knob down a peg.

Because Talladega is the widest of NASCAR's three superspeedways, you tend to see a lower incident rate here than at Daytona or Atlanta.

Add in that it's a playoff race, and you're less likely to see wild risks taken early on.

As a result, the win odds for the favorites are higher than what you'd see for the other five pack races during the year. And at least for me, it leads to showing value in one of the sports's top drivers in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

Let's start there, discussing my favorite outright of the week before diving into two other drivers who grade out as quality bets for me.

NASCAR Betting Picks for Talladega

Chase Elliott to Win (+1600)

(UPDATE: Elliott has since lengthened to +2000 to win. I don't know why this happened, given he qualified 11th, but he's still very much a value for me at the lengthened number.)

Talladega has historically been Chase Elliott's best pack track, so with the model showing value on him, I'm inclined to buy in.

Two of Elliott's three career pack wins have come at this track, one in 2019 and the other in 2022. In five Next-Gen races at Talladega, Elliott's worst finish is 15th, and he has three finishes of seventh or better.

Elliott hasn't flashed that upside this year with no top-fives in five pack races, but he has been top-15 four times. He's definitely not struggling; he just hasn't had variance break in his favor yet.

My model ranks Elliott second overall (between Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney) and puts his win odds at 7.4%. With his implied odds at 5.9%, I'm willing to add him to my betslip.

Todd Gilliland to Finish Top 5 (+800)

(UPDATE: Gilliland has since shortened to +370 to finish top 5, making him no longer a value by my numbers.)

Todd Gilliland is running too well to not eventually break through with a big run on a pack track. I wouldn't be surprised if that comes this weekend.

In five pack races, Gilliland has four top-13 average running positions (and was 17th in the other). Only one of those has resulted in a top-10, but reassuringly, that good finish did come in the spring Talladega race.

In five career trips to Talladega, Gilliland has three top-10s and one other 12th-place finish. The lack of incidents better allows Gilliland's talent to shine through, and it has.

I do show value on Gilliland to win at +5000, and I'm comfortable pulling the trigger there. With at least some potential for him to push a fellow Ford in the playoffs to victory, I'm willing to take the more forgiving market, instead. I have Gilliland at 15.1% to finish top 5, up from 11.1% implied.

Justin Haley to Finish Top 5 (+800)

(UPDATE: Haley has since shortened to +600, making him no longer a value by my numbers.)

Justin Haley is a superb drafter who now -- with his recent switch to Spire Motorsports -- is in improved equipment. I'm not gonna miss out on his first pack race with a quality ride.

Haley is best known for his fluky Daytona win in a previous stint with Spire back in 2019. He has had success beyond that, though, with four career Xfinity wins on pack tracks (two each at Daytona and Talladega), and he has 7 top-15 finishes in 17 Cup Series pack races during the Next-Gen era.

That isn't a ton of upside, but the move to Spire does help him there as it's the best equipment he has had to date. Spire has been logging top-10s of late on non-drafting tracks, showing that the program has seemingly turned a corner. If you give Haley some giddy-up, it's game on.

Similar to Gilliland, I've got value on Haley to win at +5500. But he's got tight ties to Hendrick Motorsports, and with four Hendrick drivers still alive in the playoffs, there's a shot he plays wingman here. I've got Haley as just a slim value to finish top 5 (11.8% to 11.1% implied), but given the upside with him in a new ride, I'm willing to bet it regardless.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.