NASCAR Best Bets: Southern 500

After Harrison Burton's win at Daytona last week, the stakes are monumental Sunday night in Darlington.

It's the final race before the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs begin. And with Burton's win, there's now one less spot available on points. Five drivers are battling for three spots, and it could be just two slots should we get another new winner.

Unfortunately for the longshots, Darlington is a place where the big boys come to play. You can see surprise winners like Erik Jones in 2022, but Jones was in better form at the time than most drivers desperate for a win are now. We're probably going to see one of the bigger names in victory lane this time around.

That's where my model sees value this week, relative to FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for Darlington. It starts with a driver who has won three times already this year but still has longer-than-you'd-expect odds to win.

Let's dig in there first before laying out other potential values prior to practice and qualifying.

NASCAR Betting Picks for Darlington

Christopher Bell to Win (+1600)

(UPDATE: Bell is still +1600 to win but has slipped in my model due to poor practice pace. Thus, I wouldn't recommend adding him now at this number.)

Darlington has never been Christopher Bell's best track. It should align with his skillset, though, so I'm still willing to bet him despite the poor record.

Bell has run 10 Cup Series races in Darlington. He has just two top-10s and one top-5 in that span despite driving in top-tier equipment for more than half those races. Even in the Xfinity Series, he led zero laps across three races.

But Bell has a dirt-racing background, and those kinds of drivers -- like Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick -- tend to thrive at Darlington. He has also won last year in Homestead and tends to run great in Richmond, two other tracks that -- like Darlington -- feature massive tire falloff. It's honestly confuddling why Bell hasn't had success here.

With that said, the form for Bell in Darlington has been on the rise. He led 40 laps in this race last year, and he has had a top-nine average running position in three of five races here during the Next-Gen era.

Due to that plus his results elsewhere, my model has Bell at 8.6% to win, way above his 5.9% implied odds. Maybe I'm being stubborn, but I believe in Bell's talent enough to take that value despite his poor history at the track.

Alex Bowman to Win (+6500); Bowman to Finish Top 10 (+270)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since shortened to +5000 and +195, respectively. He'll start 27th, but Bowman had great speed in practice once you adjust for group speed differenentials. Thus, I'm fully on board with adding him even at the shortened numbers despite his poor qualifying run.)

Alex Bowman is another driver who typically runs well on tracks with lots of tire falloff but doesn't have the best record in Darlington. His record is good enough, though, to bet him at such long odds.

Bowman's lone top-five in 14 races at Darlington came in 2020, in the older generation of car. But it was a runner-up finish in a race where he led 41 laps, which is pretty impressive. He has finished 8th and 10th in his two most recent races here where he was running at the finish.

Each of Bowman's first three career wins came on tracks where tire falloff is a defining characteristic (Chicagoland, Fontana, and Richmond). He has also won at Dover, another track where drivers with a dirt background tend to excel.

That leads me -- and the model -- to believe that Bowman has upside. The simulations have him winning 2.9% of the time, which may be aggressive, but it gives us lots of wiggle room above his 1.5% implied odds.

If you don't want to take the outright, I have Bowman at 42.3% to finish top 10, up from 27.0% implied at +270. Personally, I'd prefer to divide my bet up and put portions in both markets, but you can pick your poison based on your risk tolerance and views of Bowman's ceiling.

Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+600)

(UPDATE: Suarez has since lengthened to +750. He has fallen in my model, as well, due to his middling Saturday, but he is a value at the new number: 14.4% for me versus 11.8% implied. Suarez isn't a must-add if he's not already on your card, but he is at least still above market.)

Daniel Suarez wrecks a bit more than you'd like, and a chaotic approach doesn't typically play well at such a narrow track. I still think +600 is too long for a driver in his equipment, though.

Back in the spring, Suarez was brutal here. He finished 24th with a 29th-place average running position, forcing him to post an apology to his fans. He said at the time the team was experimenting, trying to find speed with a playoff berth already locked up.

Things have been much better since. He has four top-10s in 12 races, and he had a 13th-place average running position in two others. One of the top-10s came at Richmond, a place he had struggled at back in the spring.

With this up-tick in form, my model has Suarez at 25.7% to finish top 10, up from 14.3% implied. He's definitely flawed, but the market is too low on him as it currently stands.

Carson Hocevar to Finish Top 10 (+1100)

(UPDATE: Hocevar has since shortened to +160 to finish top 10. Yes, +160. It's because he qualified second on Saturday. This is great for those of you who already have tickets, but the value is firmly dried up here, unfortunately.)

Most of the guys here have underwhelming histories at Darlington.

Carson Hocevar? Not so much.

Hocevar ran four races here in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series. He finished top-five in three of them and was on the podium twice, including a runner-up during his age-18 season.

It makes sense, then, that Hocevar would choose Darlington to make his second career start in the Xfinity Series. He was a rocket-ship that day, finishing 6th despite starting back in 25th.

Hocevar's two runs here in the Cup Series haven't been as stellar, but like Suarez, his form is on the rise. He finished top-10 in Richmond and Michigan, showing he both can handle lots of tire falloff and has the speed to compete at a bigger track.

He's another driver I'm way above market on as the sims have him in the top 10 16.0% of the time versus 8.3% implied odds. Of the four drivers in this piece, Hocevar's the one I feel best about being high on relative to his betting odds.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Tyler Reddick to Win (+550)

I was close to showing value on Tyler Reddick to win before Saturday. But now that we've gotten confirmation of his speed, I'm in, even at a short number.

After you adjust for group speed differentials, Reddick led the pack in 10-lap average during practice. He didn't make a 15-lap run, but he likely didn't feel he needed one with how quick the car was.

Darlington is a great track for Reddick. He has finished on the podium in three of five Next-Gen races here, and he had a third-place average running position here in the spring. Given how well he runs at other tracks with lots of tire falloff, we should expect a win soon.

My model has the odds at 18.3% for that win to come today, up from 15.4% implied. I'm more than happy to take that based on both Saturday and Reddick's history here.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Noah Gragson to Finish Top 10 (+350)

Noah Gragson is another driver with a great track record in Darlington, primarily down in the Xfinity Series. His pace here on Saturday and back in the spring both point to his being a value at this number.

In that series, Gragson won twice, was runner-up in another, and led 40-plus laps in five of seven races with JR Motorsports. He was one of the guys to beat here.

He was decent enough here in the spring, his first drive at the track with Stewart-Haas Racing. There, Gragson managed to climb his way up to 14th despite running middle of the pack most of the day.

Although Gragson will start 29th, he had good speed in practice. He ranked 9th or better in 5-, 10-, and 15-lap average once you adjust for group speed differentials. As a result, my model puts him at 28.7% to finish top 10, up from 22.2% implied.

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Which drivers stand out to you on Sunday night? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds for Darlington to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.