NASCAR Best Bets: Go Bowling at the Glen

For the second race of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, we've got a boatload of uncertainty.

We are familiar with the track. It's Watkins Glen, a road course they've been going to nearly every year since the 1980s.

It's the tires that are the wild card.

Goodyear is bringing a new tire that featured massive falloff during testing earlier this summer. Granted, that was with just three cars on track, and the dynamics change with more rubber on the track, but it's a big potential shift.

We're seeing that uncertainty reflected in the betting markets. No driver is shorter than +750 to win FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. Part of this is that we just have more dudes in contention with both Shane Van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger in the field, but it's more wide open than usual.

For me, that has created value in one of the favorites, and it's a guy who's a proven winner on road courses.

Let's dig into where my model is showing value prior to practice and qualifying.

NASCAR Betting Picks for Watkins Glen

Tyler Reddick to Win (+950)

(UPDATE: Reddick has since shortened to +850 to win. Despite qualifying 16th, he's still a value by my numbers thanks to superb speed in practice.)

Tyler Reddick has wins at both Road America and COTA on his ledger. Those are two road courses where tire degradation mattered. I think that bodes well for his outlook here.

Overall, Reddick has won 3 of 15 road-course races during the Next-Gen era (20.0%). He could have won Chicago this year, too, had he not hit the wall while trying to track down Alex Bowman on the last lap. You could make the case for his being the best road racer in the series right now.

That hasn't translated to Watkins Glen yet, but he certainly hasn't been bad here. Reddick has finished between 7th and 10th in all 3 trips. A shift in how the track races probably isn't the worst thing for him.

Reddick is the favorite in my model, sitting at 11.3%, up from 9.5% implied at +950. FanDuel's lower on Reddick than other sportsbooks, and I think they're low enough where we should consider biting.

Kyle Busch to Win (+2100)

(UPDATE: Busch has since lengthened to +2800 to win. He had good five-lap pace in practice and qualified 13th, so I think this is an overreaction. Although it's a shame to have gotten a poor number earlier, I do still think Busch is worth consideration at the lengthened number if you haven't already bet him.)

Kyle Busch has one mission the rest of this year: to win a race for the 21st consecutive season.

I wouldn't be shocked if that win were to come on a road course.

Busch has run nine road-course races since joining Richard Childress Racing. He has two runner-ups and three podiums in that time. None of those splash runs have come this year, but he was running top-five in Sonoma before getting wrecked on the last lap.

Those consistent quality runs have Busch up at 6.1% to win in my model versus 4.6% implied. I'd prefer a top-five bet with so many elite drivers in the field, but I'm not showing value there (26.5% for me versus 27.8% implied at +260), pushing me to go for the upside, instead.

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+500)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since shortened to +200 to finish top 5. My model now has him at 23.4% to finish top 5, so Bowman is no longer a value at this number.)

Bowman benefited from Reddick's error in his aforementioned win in Chicago, but it wasn't a fluke. He's good on road courses.

In 14 Next-Gen road-course races, Bowman has 5 top-5 finishes (35.7%). That's well above his implied odds of 16.7%, so even with my model projecting regression (I have him at 23.4%), he's still a value.

Two of those top-five runs have come this year as he finished fourth in COTA, again a place where tire management matters. With three top-fives in three trips to COTA, I think we can say that Bowman can get it done on abrasive surfaces.

I do show value on Bowman to win at +3700, and I won't push back if you're inclined to go there. I just like the value in this market enough to take the extra flexibility.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Christopher Bell to Win (+3400)

(UPDATE: Bell has since shortened to +3300, meaning he's still a value. As alluded to below, Bell is a high-quality bet to finish top five now that those markets are re-posted. I have him at 30.6% to finish top 5, way up from 17.9% implied at +460. Thus, I'd want to divide this bet up, putting the largest portion on his top-five market with the rest going on the outright at +3300.)

Christopher Bell will start 17th, so he'll have to make up a lot of ground. But this number is too long.

Bell got better as the tires fell off in practice. After adjusting for group speed differentials, he was 17th in single-lap speed, 8th in 5-lap average, and 3rd in 10-lap average. Given the role tire degradation is likely to play, that's a huge factor in Bell's favor.

Bell has one win and four podiums in 15 Next-Gen road course races, and one of the podiums came in Watkins Glen. He had a chance to win at COTA this year -- another track where tires degrade -- but couldn't quite catch William Byron in the closing laps.

I'll have interest in adding Bell in other markets, too, once FanDuel re-posts those, but for now, I'm happy to take the outright at +3400.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.