NASCAR Best Bets: FireKeepers Casino 400

You wanna win in Michigan? You gotta have that giddy-up.

Michigan International Speedway is currently the fastest track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit (without adjusting for rules packages). Christopher Bell averaged 193.382 miles per hour on his pole-winning lap last year, fastest of any race in 2023.

That means we can cross off a good number of teams contending for the win. And all the weekly regulars? You can bet they'll be at the front when it matters.

That's reassuring for me because my model shows value in one of the favorites this week in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

And by "one of" the favorites, I mean the favorite.

Let's dig into who that is, why that's the case, and which other values pop up prior to practice and qualifying.

NASCAR Betting Picks for Michigan

Denny Hamlin to Win (+650)

(UPDATE: Hamlin has since shortened to +500 to win. That's short enough where Hamlin is no longer a value for me.)

Denny Hamlin has been knocking on the door of a win at a faster track all year long. Things have just popped up to keep him out of victory lane.

I think he can break through this weekend.

In Pocono, Hamlin qualified fourth, led 31 of 160 laps, and had a fifth-place average running position but came home in second place.

In Indy, Hamlin had likely the second best car, but he couldn't pick his way through traffic late and was eventually involved in a wreck.

The speed's there; he just hasn't gotten a win.

Hamlin has been close in both Next-Gen races at Michigan. He finished third in both races, giving him six straight finishes in the top six here.

When you combine that with his form, my model has Hamlin at 16.0% to win, up from 13.3% implied. It's lofty, but he's there for a reason, and I'm willing to buy in at this price.

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+500)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since shortened to +470, which is 17.5% implied. Practice times pushed Bowman up to 23.6% to finish top 5 in my model, so this is still a nice value.)

Alex Bowman is another guy who was fast in Pocono and figures to be at least relevant this week.

In that Pocono race, Bowman surged late and wound up finishing third. It was his first top-five at a bigger track in a while, but he was seventh in Kansas and ninth in Charlotte, so it's not like he was out to lunch.

Last year in Michigan, Bowman had speed. Despite starting 19th, he was 7th at the end of the first stage and wound up leading 19 laps. A wreck later jettisoned him back to 33rd, but he was solid up to that point.

My model has Bowman as a bit of a value to win at +3500 (3.4% for me versus 2.8% implied). You could definitely justify that. I just prefer the top 5 mark, where he's 20.0% versus 16.7% implied.

Michael McDowell to Finish Top 5 (+2900)

(UPDATE: McDowell has since shortened to +1800 to finish top 5. After practice, McDowell is at 8.0% for me, up from 5.3% implied. I still think the top-10 market is preferred, as discussed below.)

Michael McDowell's average finish in Michigan is 30.1.

His best finish over 17 races is 22nd.

So why on earth would we want to bet him to finish top five?

It all comes down to equipment.

McDowell spent the early parts of his career in back-marker cars. He failed to finish four of his first five races here due to mechanical issues. Thus, the average finish is misleading.

It's clear this year that McDowell's in the best equipment he has had. He has won three poles, and he qualified eighth in Indy, another big, fast track. Qualifying isn't everything, but it's a good indicator of speed, and McDowell has had more of that this year than at any point in his career.

It might be a bit of a leap to take McDowell top five. But FanDuel doesn't currently have top-10 odds posted (I'd have fair odds there at +308), and he is a pretty big value for me to crack the top 5. I have him at 9.0% versus 3.3% implied. I don't blame you if you'd rather sit this one out, but I think McDowell's poor track history is masking how fast he has been this year.

Mid-Week Addition: Michael McDowell to Finish Top 10 (+800)

(UPDATE: McDowell has since shortened to +550 to finish top 10. He's now at 23.6% for me, up from 15.4% implied, so this is still one of the better values on the board.)

I mentioned in the above blurb that I had fair value on McDowell to finish top 10 at +308. So, uh, yeah, a smidge of a gap here.

Its possible I'm too high on McDowell. The Cup Series has run six races on higher-speed, non-drafting ovals this year, and McDowell has just one top-10 finish to show for it.

But that's a 16.7% clip, higher than the 11.1% implied odds he carries here.

My model's above the results at 24.5% in part because McDowell has been a bit unlucky with his finishes. He had a top-15 average running position in both Charlotte and Indianapolis, as well, but he finished 16th in both races. Those are the kinds of runs that can easily land you in the back half of the top 10 if things break your way.

Because McDowell hasn't had race-winning pace, I prefer this market to the top-five bet laid out above. I don't mind either, though, and I'm fine putting a little bit on both if you want upside should McDowell benefit from late-race variance.

Mid-Week Addition: Chase Briscoe to Finish Top 10 (+800)

(UPDATE: Briscoe has since shortened to +550 to finish top 10. That's a big enough move where he's no longer a value by my model.)

I don't love targeting Chase Briscoe at higher-speed tracks, and my model is lower on him than it is on McDowell. But +800 is too long here.

Going back to that aforementioned six-race sample on higher-speed, non-drafting ovals, Briscoe also has one top-10 in that span: a sixth-place run in Texas. Again, it's not amazing, but it is above the market's projected rate.

Similar to McDowell, Briscoe has two additional top-15 average running positions in Vegas and Pocono. He seems fully over whatever led to his having a truly dreadful season on intermediate tracks last year.

I've got Briscoe at 16.6% to finish top 10, up from 11.1% implied. That's a big enough gap for me to bite even if I have my reservations about him and his equipment.

Post-Qualifying Addition: William Byron to Win (+1400)

The Hendrick Motorsports cars were fast on Saturday, occupying three of the top four spots in five-lap average during practice. That boosts our Bowman bet above, but I also think we can back his teammate, William Byron, to win.

Byron was fourth in single-lap speed and third in five-lap average during the abbreviated session. He'll start ninth after qualifying was cancelled due to rain.

Byron has been slumping a bit since he got three wins early in the season. It's possible the team has been experimenting with an eye on the playoffs, but it is definitely concerning.

At the same time, that's accounted for in these odds at +1400. The model knows Byron's performance has dipped a bit, and it still has him at 7.7% to win, up from 6.7% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Erik Jones to Finish Top 10 (+390)

It's dealer's choice for the justification on betting Erik Jones this week.

You want narratives? This is Jones' home track.

You want good vibes? Jones just signed a multi-year extension with Legacy Motor Club.

You want speed? I s'pose that matters a bit, too.

Jones was 12th in single-lap speed in practice and 14th in 5-lap average. This comes after Jones' teammate, John Hunter Nemechek, had good speed in Indianapolis and Jones had a 12th-place average running position in Pocono.

The big, fast tracks are where Legacy has typically excelled in the Next-Gen era. Jones has consecutive top-10s at Michigan on top of multiple top-10s at Pocono and a podium at Fontana in 2022. I've got him at 25.1% to finish top 10, up from 20.4% implied.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.