MLB SGP Bets to Target: Wednesday 7/31/24
Looking for a new way to bet on Major League Baseball this summer? A Same Game Parlay (SGP) at FanDuel Sportsbook might be the answer!
SGPs allow you to combine two or more selections from the same game for a higher potential payout. For more information about parlays, SGP, and SGP+, head over to FanDuel.
Here at FanDuel Research, we're going to provide some SGPs builds to consider based on the games and props available for today, but there are plenty more popular parlay ideas available at FanDuel's Parlay Hub, too!
Which correlated bets stand out for today's MLB slate? Let's dig in.
Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check FanDuel Research's projections to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
MLB SGP Bets
Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez to Record 2+ Total Bases (-120)
Yainer Diaz to Record an RBI (+105)
Houston Astros Moneyline (-215)
Combined Odds: +336
Jake Woodford is expected to start for the Pittsburgh Pirates, which puts the bats of the Houston Astros in a good spot for Wednesday's contest. Woodford has pitched just 8.1 MLB innings this season, producing a 5.60 SIERA, 42.4% flyball rate, 48.5% hard-hit rate, and 9.1% barrel rate.
Across 15 games in 2023, Woodford wasn't much better with a 5.35 SIERA, 49.4% hard-hit rate, and 11.3% barrel rate. Seeing that Woodford permitted a .412 wOBA, 1.71 WHIP, and 2.31 HR/9 to lefties last season, this is a perfect get-right spot for Yordan Alvarez.
After achieving two-plus bases in four straight games, Alvarez has tallied two-plus bases in only one of his last five outings. The good news for Alvarez is that he boasts a .250 ISO or higher and a .345 wOBA or higher against Woodford's two primary pitches (sinker and sweeper) versus left-handed hitters.
Yainer Diaz has been swinging a hot bat recently, getting two-plus bases in each of his last six games. Hitting out of the cleanup spot has helped Diaz record at least one RBI in four of his last six contests, totaling six RBIs in that span.
Given Woodford's woes in the last two seasons, Alvarez is being given +300 odds to hit a home run while Diaz has +540 odds in the same market.
With Framber Valdez taking the mound for the Astros, we'll take Houston to avoid a three-game sweep against Pittsburgh. The Astros have won six straight games with Valdez on the bump, and he's given up a combined three earned runs over his last three outings.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Dylan Cease to Record 8+ Strikeouts (-192)
Manny Machado to Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)
Xander Bogaerts to Record a Hit (-210)
Combined Odds: +363
Dylan Cease is on a special run right now, allowing just two hits and zero earned runs while striking out 30 batters across his last three starts for the San Diego Padres. Ahead of his first start against the Los Angeles Dodgers as a member of the Padres, Cease has a better matchup than many might think.
Over the last 30 days, the Dodgers have the fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.8%) versus right-handed pitching. Not having Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman available makes Los Angeles much more susceptible to Ks while Cease ranks in the 92nd percentile in whiff rate (32.5%) and 94th percentile in strikeout rate (32.5%).
Clayton Kershaw made his season debut for the Dodgers his last time out, giving up two earned runs and six hits while striking out six. Five of the six hits Kershaw surrendered in his first start in 2024 were to right-handed hitters, making Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts enticing players to target in this SGP.
Machado is coming off a two-homer performance against the Dodgers on Tuesday, and he's logged two-plus bases in four of his last seven games. There is also plenty of familiarity with Machado having 41 career plate appearances versus Kershaw, registering 13 hits -- with 5 extra-base hits -- in that sample.
Meanwhile, Bogaerts is currently on a nine-game hitting streak for the Padres. Bogaerts is also sporting a .323 wOBA, 114 wRC+, and just a 9.4% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels
Kevin Pillar to Record 2+ Total Bases (-120)
Ezequiel Tovar to Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)
First 5 Innings Alternate Total Runs: Over 3.5 (-230)
Combined Odds: +395
Kyle Freeland is a pitch-to-contact pitcher who surrenders plenty of hits when he takes the mound for the Colorado Rockies. Freeland is sitting in the 8th percentile in xERA (5.25), 4th percentile in xBA (.291), 16th percentile in strikeout rate (17.9%), and 12th percentile in barrel rate (10.2%) while allowing five-plus hits in 9 of his 10 starts in 2024.
Kevin Pillar should be batting in the middle of the order for the Los Angeles Angels, and he's capable of doing damage versus southpaws. Pillar is putting up a fantastic .444 wOBA, 190 wRC+, and .250 ISO against left-handed pitching this season.
On the other side of this game, Ezequiel Tovar is one the hottest hitters in baseball right now. Tovar is amid a 16-game hit streak, with two-plus bases in 11 of those contests.
Davis Daniel is on the mound for the Angels, and he's permitting a .397 wOBA, 1.64 WHIP, and 2.45 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. With Freeland and Daniel on the mound, it's worth noting that Pillar has +420 odds to hit a home run while Tovar has +480 odds in the same market.
After 13 runs were scored in the first five innings between the Rockies and Angels on Tuesday, we'll side with four-plus runs being posted in the first five of Wednesday's matchup.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.