MLB SGP Bets to Target: Thursday 8/22/24

Looking for a new way to bet on Major League Baseball this summer? A Same Game Parlay (SGP) at FanDuel Sportsbook might be the answer!

SGPs allow you to combine two or more selections from the same game for a higher potential payout. For more information about parlays, SGP, and SGP+, head over to FanDuel.

Here at FanDuel Research, we're going to provide some SGPs builds to consider based on the games and props available for today, but there are plenty more popular parlay ideas available at FanDuel's Parlay Hub, too!

Which correlated bets stand out for today's MLB slate? Let's dig in.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check FanDuel Research's projections to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB SGP Bets

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

Paul Skenes Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Jonathan India to Record a Run (+110)
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-176)

Combined Odds: +332

Betting against star rookie Paul Skenes -- who has +135 odds to win NL Rookie of the Year on FanDuel Sportsbook -- might seem a bit strange, but there have been signs of the wunderkind fading down the stretch.

While Skenes' average fastball velocity was around 99-100 mph when he first came up in May, that started to dip in mid-July, and he's dropped below 98 mph in his last two starts.

Given that's still a high velocity, it might not be so much of a concern normally, but his performance has also begun to dip, as well. Over his last four starts, the right-hander has posted a 4.46 xFIP, 24.7% strikeout rate, and 11.3% walk rate.

While this is a good matchup for him against a Cincinnati Reds team that has its share of high-strikeout bats, Skenes has fallen below 7.5 Ks in three of those last four outings, and reports that the Pittsburgh Pirates might begin to limit his innings further decrease his chances of continuing to put up gaudy strikeout numbers.

FanDuel Research's MLB projections also see Skenes coming up just short at 6.5 strikeouts.

Considering Skenes has also struggled with walks lately, Reds leadoff man Jonathan India should have an easier time getting on base as someone who comes in with a 12.5% walk rate (94th percentile). While it could be a small-sample fluke, Skenes has also seen his strikeout rate plummet to just 18.9% versus righties over his last four starts, which could further help India get on base.

Given that Cincinnati has solid power behind India, the leadoff man should have a reasonable shot of scoring if he gets on base.

Finally, if we're banking on a mediocre performance from Skenes, siding with the Reds to cover the +1.5 run line is a reasonable ask. Lefty starter Nick Lodolo has been a mixed bag lately, but he's produced a 3.82 SIERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, and 7.2% walk rate over 20 starts, and Pittsburgh's active roster is 23rd in wRC+ (94) versus southpaws.

The last time Lodolo faced the Pirates in June, he held them to just one earned run over seven innings while racking up eight punchouts.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Spencer Schwellenbach Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Bryce Harper to Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)
Ramon Laureano to Record a Hit (-180)

Combined Odds: +407

Spencer Schwellenbach has a neutral matchup for strikeouts against the Philadelphia Phillies, but he's cleared 5.5 Ks in five straight starts, tallying 8, 11, 10, 7, and 8 over that span. In that sample, he's rocking a 2.18 xFIP and 36.1% strikeout rate, and his season-long marks of 3.19 and 27.5% were strong to begin with. We should expect him to clear this bar again tonight.

If we look at Schwellenbach's splits, we see a dramatic difference in his strikeout rate versus righties (35.5%) compared to lefties (20.8%). With that in mind, even if he racks up the Ks, the lefties might still be able to do some damage, and Bryce Harper is a logical target to record 2+ total bases.

Harper boasts a .373 wOBA and .249 ISO this year, and he's 88th percentile in all of xwOBA, xSLG, and hard-hit rate. It also helps that Schewellenbach owns just a 5.4% walk rate versus lefties, reducing the chance of him walking Harper.

Southpaw Cristopher Sanchez will take the mound for the Phillies, and while he typically generates positive results behind a stellar ground-ball rate, he's not quite as dangerous versus right-handed batters (18.2% K rate; 56.0% GB rate) compared to lefties (20.2% K rate; 66.3% GB rate).

Ramon Laureano has logged at least one hit in seven of his last eight games, and he's been more effective when facing left-handers (127 wRC+) than righties (78 wRC+) this season. He could also move up the order against a lefty starter, which gives him a better chance of getting more plate appearances tonight.

Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles

Spencer Arrighetti Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Corbin Burnes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-124)
Yordan Alvarez to Record 2+ Total Bases (+110)

Combined Odds: +653

Spencer Arrighetti and Corbin Burnes will have their work cut out for them against a pair of tough lineups, but their splits suggest they should still be able to generate strikeouts.

Arrighetti is likely to see seven left-handed bats in the Baltimore Orioles' lineup, which would typically be a negative for a righty, but in Arrighetti's case, he actually boasts a 29.1% K rate versus that handedness. While he came short of 5.5 Ks in his last outing (5), he went well over it in his previous three (8, 12, and 13).

In contrast, Burnes will face a righty-heavy Houston Astros order, but that will do nicely for his K prop, as he owns a 25.4% strikeout rate in same-handed matchups. The Astros may have a slew of low-strikeout hitters in the top half of the order, but hitters near the bottom he could see like Jake Meyers, Shay Whitcomb, and Chas McCormick are more vulnerable to whiffs.

Yordan Alvarez is always a tough out, and although Burnes does induce a 55.9% ground-ball rate against lefties, his K rate dips to just 20.2%. Alvarez rarely hits into grounders when facing righties (30.5%), and we know the type of power he has when he connects. Earlier this month, Alvarez had a stretch where he recorded 2+ bases in eight of nine contests, and he had a three-hit game on Monday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.