MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Shohei Ohtani Is Excelling in Dodger Blue

The first month of the 2024 MLB season has concluded, giving us an early glimpse at how certain players and teams will do in 2024. After less-than-ideal weather was an issue early in the campaign, we're starting to see warmer environments, which means one thing: more home runs.

Some players have gotten off to much better starts than others while other familiar names are going to need time to find their groove at the plate. With a little over a month of baseball in the books, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering regular season home run leader odds in its MLB odds section.

There are plenty of games left to be played this year, so there is more than enough time for hitters throughout the league to become the next player to lead the majors in homers. Let's take a look at the current odds and discuss the top candidates to hit the most regular season home runs in 2024.

All MLB odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after the article is published. Stats are from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless stated otherwise.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (+320)

When we took a look at this market before the season began, Shohei Ohtani had +1000 odds to lead the league in home runs. In his first 37 games with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Ohtani is sporting career-best marks in wOBA (.480), SLG (.696), wRC+ (217), and strikeout rate (18.1%) while hitting a league-best 11 homers.

Ohtani has hit four home runs across his last four games as he continues to hit out of the No. 2 spot behind Mookie Betts and ahead of Freddie Freeman. The advanced numbers paint an even clearer picture to Ohtani's dominance to begin the 2024 campaign as he in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity (94.9 MPH), 100th percentile in barrel rate (25.2%), and 100th percentile in hard-hit rate (62.2%).

Just to illustrate how well Ohtani is seeing the ball right now, he has a league-best 30 barrels thus far. The player with the second-most barrels in baseball at the moment is Juan Soto of the New York Yankees with 20.

In 2023, Ohtani tallied 44 long balls with an average exit velocity of 94.4 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 54.2%. The multi-talented superstar has made a perfect transition upon joining the Dodgers, and his current metrics suggest he could be in store for his best hitting season yet.

Pete Alonso, Mets (+390)

Pete Alonso has been a home-run specialist since entering the majors with the New York Mets in 2019. Across his first five years, Alonso has hit at least 37 homers in each of the seasons he played more than 57 games -- including 40-plus home runs in back-to-back campaigns.

While Alonso isn't lighting it up yet in the early going, he still has nine homers to go along with his 82nd-percentile barrel rate (12.3%). Despite having the second-most barrels (13) on the Mets, Alonso has just the seventh-highest average exit velocity among his teammates (86.6 MPH) through 36 games.

Given what we've seen from Alonso throughout his career, we should expect his power metrics to improve as the season progresses. One statistic that is encouraging is the fact Alonso is posting a career-high 48.6% flyball rate. That means he's getting the ball in the air often, but he just needs some of these flyouts to turn into home runs.

Even though it has been a shaky start to the year for the experienced first baseman, Alonso is on track for another 40-plus home runs in 2024.

Aaron Judge, Yankees (+850)

Another hard-hitting righty who has gotten off to a peculiar start is Aaron Judge of the Yankees. At the moment, Judge is recording the worst wOBA (.351), ISO (.215), and SLG (.437) of his career since making his debut in the majors in 2016.

That being said, Judge still has seven home runs, and he's shown he's plenty capable of leading the league in homers, notching 50-plus long balls in two of his first eight seasons. There is also reason for optimism for Judge, who has a -0.057 difference between his SLG and xSLG.

Additionally, Judge is still tied for the second-highest average exit velocity (94.9 MPH) with Ohtani, and he has tallied the 11th-most barrels (14). Judge is also sitting in the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate (55.4%) and 93rd percentile in barrel rate (15.2%).

We've seen Judge go on dominant stretches where he can stop turning baseballs into souvenirs for fans in the outfield. Assuming he can remain healthy, Judge at +850 odds to lead the majors in home runs during the regular season is pretty enticing given the number of games remaining on the schedule.

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