Gather round the television, everybody. It's tater time once again.

This year's MLB All-Star festivities continue tonight with the 2024 Home Run Derby. It's a fun field, featuring a two-time champ in Pete Alonso, an ascending superstar in Gunnar Henderson, and a hometown hero in Adolis Garcia. Whoever wins, you know we're gonna have a blast watching.

But which bets stand out for the event at FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's lay out some key things to know before you place your wagers, and then we can dive into the best values of the night.

New Home Run Derby Format

The format for this year's event is pretty similar to the timed format we've seen from 2015 on, but there are some key differences.

First, you can't just pepper pitches at will. In the first round, batters will have three minutes or 40 pitches, whichever comes first, to hit as many homers as possible. That equates to one pitch every six seconds, which will give this a slower pace than past seasons. Keep that in mind for later on.

Second, it's no longer a one-on-one format in the first round. Instead, all eight batters will get their turn at the dish, and then the top four home-run hitters from that round advance to the semifinal. After that, batters will be seeded by how many homers they hit in the first round.

There are other changes to bonuses, etc, but those are the two format tweaks that'll impact betting the most.

Globe Life Field

Each year, the park plays a key role. Parks aren't symmetrical, so batters on one side of the dish can sometimes have an edge.

This year at Globe Life Field, things are pretty even.

The home-run park factor at Globe Life Field is 112 for righties and 109 for lefties, according to Baseball Savant. That'll give a slight leg up to the righties with Henderson being the only lefty. But Henderson won't be at a huge disadvantage.

The lone switch-hitter in the field is Jose Ramirez. He hit right-handed in the 2022 Derby, but that was in part due to a thumb injury. He said he hasn't decided how he'll hit yet, but from a park-factor perspective, it won't make a huge difference.

Past Home Run Derby Winners

Before outlining the best values for this year, it's important to look at past winners and see which trends pop up data-wise.

Here's a list of the winners since MLB changed to a timed format in 2015. I still think that's the most relevant sample despite this year's rule changes as there is certainly still a stamina factor involved.

All launch angle, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate data is via Baseball Savant while fly-ball rate can be found at FanGraphs. As a note, these are their numbers for the full season, not where they were at the time of the derby.

The two things that stand out most here to me are the batters' weights and their barrel rate.

The average weight is dragged up by Aaron Judge, but no batter in this format has won while weighing less than 210 pounds. For this year's field, Ramirez, Garcia, and Bobby Witt Jr. all check in at 205 or less, and Henderson is at 210 exactly.

I think this makes sense anecdotally. The Derby in a timed format is an endurance test, and having a bigger body with more muscle is going to help there. We did see Randy Arozarena in the finals last year at just 185 pounds, but it was the 240-pound Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who hoisted the trophy.

The barrel rate of Derby winners -- 13.9% -- is nearly double the league average in that time, 6.7%. That average is up to 7.9% for 2024, specifically, but with only one winner holding a barrel rate under 10.0%, we should be skeptical of batters who fail to meet that threshold and high on batters with the best marks here.

2024 Home Run Derby Participants

Let's apply those learnings to this year's field.

Here's all that same data for the batters who will challenge for the crown in 2024.

A couple things stand out here.

First, although Alec Bohm has the kind of heft we want, he's well below the field average in every other category, including ranking dead last in barrel rate. More on that in a second.

Second, Alonso enters with less-than-ideal form. His isolated slugging is .213, the lowest first-half ISO of his career. He was sitting at just .227 when he won in 2021, but it's possible we're not getting the best version of Alonso as he tries to snag a third trophy.

Now, with all of that in mind, let's dig into my favorite bets for this year's event.

Home Run Derby Best Bets

Alec Bohm Under 18.5 First-Round Homers (+100)

Two factors are at play here.

First, with there now being a pitch limit, I'm going to skew toward unders in general. You could snag a handful of these if you agree with that thesis.

Second, my skepticism of Bohm makes him the best route for exploiting this theory. His 8.3% barrel rate is barely above the league average, and he has the second-lowest fly-ball rate to boot.

Betting the under here -- rather than Bohm -340 not to advance -- allows me to exploit these two angles without laying massive juice.

Pete Alonso to Not Make the Semifinal (+198)

This is a volatile event. We're going in with a lot of certainty that Alonso advances, which he probably will! But with only 33.6% implied odds that Alonso fails to advance, I want to buy into the unpredictability.

In addition to Alonso's aforementioned form, his key to success was his synergy with his pitcher, Dave Jauss. Jauss wasn't there last year, and Alonso hit just 21 homers in the first round. Even with Jauss back this year, it's possible that synergy doesn't play as big of a role with the pitch limit now in play.

Alonso's experience means he is more likely to advance than not. I just think the market's a bit too confident in him here, allowing us to bet the other side and buy into uncertainty.

Teoscar Hernandez to Advance to the Semifinal (+142); Hernandez to Win (+1100)

One batter who checks a couple key boxes and yet still has long odds is Teoscar Hernandez.

Hernandez enters ranking in the top half of this field in weight (fourth), barrel rate (third), and hard-hit rate (fourth). Despite that, he enters with just the sixth best odds to advance (and the sixth best to win, as well).

Hernandez's big bugaboo as a hitter has always been plate discipline. He strikes out way too much, and it keeps him from putting up elite numbers. But that doesn't matter in this format as we can just gawk at pure power, and it's clear Hernandez has that, ranking in the 92nd percentile of all hitters in barrel rate, according to Baseball Savant.

This is a spot where I'd want to take whatever wager amount you're willing to lose on Hernandez and split it up, putting the largest chunk on him to advance with a bit on him to win. This way, you can profit if he's in the top four of the first round while still having upside should he win it all.

Marcell Ozuna to Win (+380)

As much as I like Hernandez, it's Marcell Ozuna who checks the most boxes in this year's field.

Here are Ozuna's ranks in various batted-ball categories at Baseball Savant: 98th percentile in barrel rate, 98th percentile in hard-hit rate, 97th percentile in launch-angle sweet spot, 95th percentile in average exit velocity.

Whew, doggies.

Among batters in this field, Ozuna is first in barrel rate -- by a whopping three percentage points -- and second in hard-hit rate. He also checks in at 225 pounds, second behind only Alonso.

The only thing he lacks is Alonso's experience as this will be Ozuna's first Derby.

As mentioned above, I think Alonso is overvalued at +300. That opens up value elsewhere. Even though Ozuna's odds are short, I do think he deserves to be the favorite here, allowing me to lay the +380 and see if Ozuna hits as well as his profile says he could.

The 2024 MLB All-Star Game is on July 16th! Place a $5+ wager on the All-Star Game and get entered into a drawing to win a pair of World Series tickets. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you for Monday's Home Run Derby? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest MLB Home Run Derby betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.