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MLB Betting: Will Luis Arraez Be Hitting .400 at the All-Star Break?

Austan Kas
Austan Kas•@AustanKas

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Luis Arraez is flirting with history.

The last MLB player to hit .400 in a season was Ted Williams back in 1941. Through 67 games and 282 plate appearances, Arraez is hitting exactly .400 after a 5-for-5 effort on Monday.

This is the deepest into a season that a player has been hitting at least .400 since Chipper Jones held a .400 average 73 games into the 2008 campaign. Jones finished that year hitting .364.

How long can Arraez keep it up?

Well, according to the MLB player specials at FanDuel Sportsbook, he's a big underdog to be hitting over .400 at the All-Star break.

Despite the blistering start to the season, Arraez is listed as a +340 'dog to be hitting at least .400 at the All-Star Break (July 10th), with Arraez priced at -500 to have a batting average under .400 on that date.

While those seem like long odds, they're drastically shorter than they were just earlier last week. On June 14th, Arraez was a +3500 underdog to be hitting at least .400 at the break. At that point, Arraez's batting average stood at .376.

And then he went nuts, going 5-for-5 on June 16th before the aforementioned 5-for-5 day on Monday. He's now 11 for his last 15 (.786), resulting in his odds jumping to where they are now.

For what it's worth, Steamer and ZiPS are both skeptical of Arraez's chances, which isn't all that surprising given how projection systems work as well as the fact that Arraez's batting average on balls in play is an eye-popping .417 -- well above his .348 career average. ZiPS has Arraez hitting .334 the rest of the way while Steamer has him at .313.

Even if Arraez can't maintain this pace through the break, his push for a .400 average has been one of the more entertaining storylines of the first half, and he's a big reason why the Miami Marlins are in second in the National League East, although they are a +3000 underdog to win the division, per the MLB division winner odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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