MLB Betting: Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs This Season?

We are closing in on the All-Star Break, and the leaders in some statistical categories are taking shape. This presents a picture we can look at to find somewhere that makes sense to place a wager via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Today, let's dig into the market for who will have the most home runs in the league in the regular season, per the MLB player specials betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are the leading candidates:

Shohei Ohtani, OF, Los Angeles Angels

Currently leading baseball in homers is Shohei Ohtani with 24.

The most single-season homers of Ohtani's career was 46 in 2021. That season, he had an average exit velocity of 93.6 MPH, a hard-hit rate of 53.4% and barrelled the ball a whopping 22.4% of the time. This year, all of these numbers are down from his 2021 output. The exit velocity is only 0.5 MPH lower, but the hard-hit rate is down to 49.3% and the barrel rate is just 16.3%.

The launch angle is also concerning as it has fallen from 16.8 degrees in 2021 to just 12.5 degrees this season. Ohtani's fly-ball rate is also down -- 40.6% to 39.5%.

He's still the current homer-run leader for a reason, but it's not a sure thing. Ohtani's only 11th in barrel percentage, which ranks third among the list of favorites. He has the MLB lead by only two homers, and there is still a lot of the season left to play.

What Ohtani has working in his favor is that Angel Stadium has a 124 park factor on home runs for lefties, according to Baseball Savant. That's the second-highest number in baseball since 2021.

The +260 odds are pretty short at this point in the season, but it's also hard to bet against Shohei Ohtani.

Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets

Pete Alonso just returned from a stint on the injured list and remains in contention for the MLB home-run crown with 22 big flies this season.

Like Ohtani, Alonso has led the league in homers before. That was in 2019, when he hit 53 in his rookie season. Some of his underlying numbers are even better this season than they were that year.

Alonso owns a 47.8% fly-ball rate in 2023, compared to a 41.7% fly-ball rate in 2019. He's also barrelling the ball 16.5% of the time, the highest rate of his career.

The New York Mets' slugger has a good chance of leading baseball in home runs again if he is able to stay healthy. His home stadium is working against him, though, as Citi Field is the 10th-worst park for right-handed hitters to hit home runs.

Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves

Matt Olson came into Tuesday with the same odds and same amount of jacks as Kyle Schwarber and then hit a moonshot versus Schwarber's Philadelphia Phillies. It was his 21 tater of the year, and he's now +550 to lead baseball in home runs.

He's the only player I'm writing up today who has never hit 40 home runs in a season, but he has some of the best advanced data in baseball. Olson has the highest barrel rate among qualified hitters at 19.3%. He's also hitting fly balls at a quality 45.3% clip.

He's been able to make the best contact of his career as his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are the best we've seen from him. Last season, Olson played all 162 games for the Atlanta Braves, which is clearly a good thing since it shows Atlanta doesn't feel the need to give him a rest.

Truist Park is fairly good for lefties looking to go deep, as the rolling three-year numbers have it as the fourth-best park for lefty homers. If Olson plays all 162 games again -- or close to it -- and keeps hitting the ball the way he has, it wouldn't be a shock to see him lead the league in dingers in 2023.

Kyle Schwarber, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

Few players in the MLB embrace the three true outcomes more than Schwarber does. This season, more than half of his plate appearances have resulted in either a strikeout, a walk or a home run.

Obviously, when we're betting this market, we need to worry about only how often Schwarber will hit one over the fence. The data suggests he'll do so pretty often as he is barrelling the ball 16.1% of the time and hitting fly balls at a 48.8% rate.

These numbers are slightly below what he did last season, when he hit 46 bombs. He trails Ohtani by four home runs, and a slight improvement in getting even more balls in the air could easily see him top this list.

Schwarber's home park will help him as it ranks fifth in park factor for lefties across the last three seasons. Schwarber has a track record of being an elite power hitter and isn't too far back in the race, so getting him at +650 is intriguing.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.