MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 4/20/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants

Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-118)

After last night's eye-popping 17-1 blow victory in San Francisco, the Diamondbacks will attempt to sustain their winning ways against the division rivals.

Taking the mound in good form (2.96 xFIP, 29.2% K-rate this season), Zac Gallen presents an obvious pitching advantage for the D-backs when comparing his current and career metrics (3.60 xFIP) to San Francisco's Kyle Harrison's profile (4.77 xFIP, 20.2% K-rate in 11 career starts) while Arizona also ranks as a much better offensive squad in weighted runs created plus (10th versus 18th) and wOBA (6th versus 22nd).

With viable edges at the plate and on the mound, numberFire's models find value in taking the favorite in today's NL West matchup with a 2.6% gap between Arizona's 56.7% win probability and their 54.1% implied percentage.

Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies Over 4.5 Runs (-140)

Bryce Harper to Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)

Heading into Saturday evening in troubling form with a 5.02 xFIP in his last ten appearances, Mike Soroka's recent struggles present several opportunities to cash in.

Through his most recent 51.2 innings, Soroka has been unable to find his stuff, recording a below-average 14.0% K-rate and a 8.2% swinging strike percentage while also allowing troubling production to the opposing side of the plate (.333 wOBA, 4.53 xFIP) through his career.

With looming trouble ahead of him against four Philadelphia lefty bats including Bryce Harper, today's matchup gives us an ideal spot to capitalize on Harper's player props and his emerging batted ball form (57% hard rate, 11% barrel rate in last 17 at-bats) and numberFire's expectation for the Phillies to exceed their team total with an impressive 5.87 mark.

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs

Over 8.5 Runs (-112)

In a matchup between two inexperienced arms in Roddery Munoz and Shota Imanaga, the second part of today's double-header presents an underrated spot for offense.

Making his first MLB start in a Miami uniform, Munoz should be in for a rough debut versus a Chicago offense ranked 11th in weighted runs created plus (9% above average) after he accounted for well below-average metrics in AAA including a 8.65 xFIP this season and a 5.51 xFIP in his largest sample size as a starter in 2023 while on the other side Imanaga's unsustainable scoreless streak should come to an end with a sizable gap between his 3.65 xFIP and his blank ERA.

With two pitchers heading towards potential trouble in an underrated offensive environment ranked 12th in ballpark ratings, there is plenty of value to be found in today's total with numberFire's models expecting an outcome exceeding 8.5 runs with a 9.8 expected total.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.