MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 9/26/23: Wake Boston Up When September Ends
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From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Under 7.0 (+100)
We kick things off up north where there's a lot of value in the New York Yankees-Toronto Blue Jays matchup going under 7.0 runs. This one boils down to the pitching matchup -- though the plus-odds don't hurt.
Kevin Gausman toes the rubber for the home Blue Jays. Gausman hasn't been lights-out over the second half of the year, but he still comes into tonight with one of the 10 best ERAs in baseball (3.29). On top of that, the righty has racked up the third-most strikeouts in the league (232) on the back of a 31.4% strikeout rate and 12.9% whiff rate. Gausman just saw this Yankees lineup, tossing 6.0 shutout innings and striking out 10. Given New York's right-handed struggles, I'd expect more of the same tonight.
The Yankees have struggled against righties all season. In that split, they sit 27th in wOBA (.298) and 24th in wRC+ (89) and have struck out at a top-10 clip (24.0%). While the Yanks have at least been able to generate power in this split at home, that exits the conversation away from Yankee Stadium. In road games against righties, their ISO plummets to .145 -- 25th in the league.
Gausman just blanked New York, so the only part of this under we need to worry about comes via the Yankees' starter, Michael King. That said, King's 2.66 ERA and 3.05 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) don't give much concern. A reliever for much of the season, King has entered the starting rotation over the last month to immediate success. He's given up just four runs across his previous five starts and is coming off arguably the best outing of his career against these very Blue Jays. In 7.0 innings of work, King allowed just a single run and struck out a staggering 13 hitters.
Toronto has been surprisingly mediocre against righties this year, and they've actually been below average in the split over the second half. Since the All-Star break, the Blue Jays rank 18th in wOBA (.316) and have struck out at a 22.1% clip against righties. They've registered the second-highest rate of soft contact (17.0%) over that span and, consequently, sit in the bottom half of the league with a .164 ISO.
This 7.0-run total pushed when King and Gausman faced off last week, but that was at Yankee Stadium. I'm expecting fewer runs in a less hitter-friendly park along with the same dominant pitching we witnessed last week.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Rays -1.5 (+125)
Only one more week until the Boston Red Sox are relaxing on a beach in Cancun... it can't come soon enough.
Mathematically eliminated from the postseason, Boston has largely thrown in the towel. Green Day must've toured Boston at the end of August, because the Red Sox offense has been taking "wake me up when September ends" way too literally. Against righties this month, the Red Sox have compiled the fourth-lowest wOBA (.299), the seventh-lowest ISO (.157), and the fifth-lowest wRC+ (86) -- all while striking out at the sixth-highest clip (25.5%).
As a result, the Red Sox have gone just 7-15 this month -- tied for the second-worst September record in baseball. Of those 15 losses, 9 came by at least two runs, and two of those came against their opponents tonight, the Tampa Bay Rays.
All of that bodes well for Tampa starter Zach Eflin. Eflin has been a pleasant surprise for one of the most injury-ravaged pitching staffs in baseball. Eflin rides a 3.44 ERA into tonight's start -- backed up by a stellar 3.30 SIERA. He's maintained a strong 26.6% strikeout rate on top of a 49.8% groundball rate. The righty hardly issues free passes (3.5% walk rate) and does a good job limiting hard hits (34.8%).
He just saw this Boston lineup earlier this month, a start in which Eflin gave up three runs in just five innings of work. While that isn't ideal, it was just the third time in his previous 10 starts that he gave up more than two runs in a game.
Given Boston's offensive struggles, I'm not worried about Eflin's ability to keep them under control. Consequently, we just need to worry about Tampa scoring enough to cover 1.5. The Rays have kept on rolling even without Wander Franco in the lineup. Since August 13th, Tampa has sat in the top half of the league in wOBA (.324), ISO (.171), and hard-contact rate (34.2%) against right-handed pitchers.
They'll match up with a righty tonight in Tanner Houck. Houck is not someone I'm especially scared of in this one -- not with his 4.92 ERA and 43.6% hard-hit rate. Tampa had no problems scoring on him earlier this season as they pegged him for four runs and five hits back in June.
Additionally, Houk's given up at least four runs in two of his last four starts. Considering Tampa's right-handed splits, the Rays shouldn't have any issues putting up enough runs to cover as 1.5-run favorites.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
Padres ML (-124)
Two teams pretending to still have a shot at the postseason square off tonight -- though they couldn't be headed in more opposite directions.
The home San Francisco Giants have gone just 8-15 this month while the San Diego Padres have gone an MLB-best 15-7. That, coupled with favorable splits for San Diego on both the mound and at the plate, make the Padres a strong moneyline play even at -124 odds.
San Diego sends Seth Lugo out to the mound tonight for his 26th start of the season. The long-time reliever has had a stellar season working out of the Padres' starting rotation. He carries with him a 3.79 ERA, a 3.93 SIERA, and a pristine 5.8% walk rate. He has some shaky quality of contact numbers (9.9% barrel and 44.4% hard-hit rates aren't ideal), but he's been a quality-start machine over the second half. In 13 starts since the All-Star break, Lugo has given up more than three runs just three times, registering nine quality starts in the process.
He'll have a good shot of making that 10 tonight considering he's already shoved twice against San Francisco, giving up just one run in 11 combined innings.
The Giants haven't been able to muster any sort of offense against right-handed pitchers of late. Since August 1st, San Francisco ranks 29th in both wOBA (.288) and ISO (.133) and 28th in wRC+ (82) in the split. Coupled with an above-average strikeout rate (23.0%) and a below-average rate of hard contact (31.1%), it's easy to see why this is an advantageous matchup for Lugo.
Assuming Lugo can deal again tonight, we'll be banking on the Padres' lineup to hold up their end of the bargain against rookie Kyle Harrison.
The lefty has flashed the potential that made him a top-20 prospect but has struggled with consistency. While it's hard not to forget the 11-strikeout, 6.1-inning shutout he managed in his second career start, he's since given up 14 runs across his last 20 innings of work. He comes into tonight's start with a 4.85 ERA, a 4.25 SIERA, and an eye-popping 50% flyball rate.
He's unlikely to figure out his issues today -- not against this Padres offense.
San Diego has been one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball against lefties over the second half. Since the All-Star break, the Padres boast the highest wOBA (.389), the second-highest ISO (.219), and the highest wRC+ (151) in that split. On top of that, they're striking out at the third-lowest clip (18.1%) and walking at the eighth-highest (9.4%) while registering the third-highest rate of hard contact (37.2%).
Given San Fransisco's right-handed struggles and San Diego's left-handed prowess, I'm all in on the Padres to keep their flickering postseason dreams alive... at least for one more day.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.