MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 9/12/23: Fading Veteran Arms

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles

Orioles -1.5 (+102)

We kick things off out east where I'm looking to capitalize on yet another Adam Wainwright start.

This time around, that means backing the Baltimore Orioles to cover 1.5 runs against the St. Louis Cardinals.

After winning yesterday's opener 11-5, the Orioles are well-positioned to win by multiple runs yet again with Wainwright on the bump. The Cardinals have lost by two or more runs in 10 of Wainwright's last 11 starts, including 7 in a row.

That sums up what's been a disastrous season for the 42-year-old. For the year, Wainwright boasts an atrocious 8.19 ERA that is only slightly worse than his 8.09 expected ERA (xERA). He hardly strikes anyone out (11.3% K rate) and hands out barrels like Halloween candy (12.4%). Allowing the highest wOBA (.428) among qualified pitchers, Wainwright could be in for another rough night given how well the Orioles have hit righties.

Baltimore has been an above-average offense all season, and that's held true over the last month. Against righties since August 1st, the Orioles rank 7th in wOBA (.343) and 15th in ISO (.174). They've averaged the fourth-most runs per game (6.05) over that span and have won by two-plus runs in 20 of their last 37 games.

Given the opposing pitcher, Baltimore's offense should be able to hold up their end of this play, but what about their own pitching?

That's where some risk comes in, as John Means will make his first major league appearance since April 2022 following a full recovery from Tommy John Surgery. It's hard to project much from Means, but he was a quality arm prior to Tommy John. An All-Star in 2019, Means compiled a 3.62 ERA and 22.7% strikeout rate, and he allowed a measly 37.6% hard-hit rate during his last full season in 2021.

The lefty looked solid in three rehab starts, compiling a 3.74 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and striking out 22 in 21.2 innings of work.

He'll match up with a Cardinals lineup that has some big names but has struggled against lefties over the last month. Since August 12th, St. Louis boasts the 5th-lowest wOBA (.296), 13th-highest strikeout rate (23.1%), and 6th-lowest wRC+ (87) against left-handed pitchers.

I'm not expecting a whole lot from Means but feel confident taking the Orioles even with the chance he struggles -- thanks to their bullpen. Baltimore's relievers have compiled the fourth-lowest skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in baseball, setting the Orioles up to easily cover as 1.5-run favorites even if their starter gives up a few along the way.

Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays ML (-102)

I'm fully fading future Hall of Fame pitchers tonight -- this time backing the opposite side of a Max Scherzer start and taking the Toronto Blue Jays on the moneyline against the Texas Rangers.

Unlike Wainwright, Scherzer certainly has stuff left in the tank. He's been sound this season, pitching to a 3.29 xERA while maintaining a 28.6% strikeout rate. Still, despite solid expected stats, Scherzer's 3.91 ERA is his highest mark since 2011.

While he's pitched better since being traded to the Rangers, he's also coming off arguably his worst start of the season. The Houston Astros roughed him up for 7 runs in just 3.0 innings of work, cranking 3 homers off him in the process.

That's been an ongoing trend for Mad Max as he's allowing the highest HR/FB rate (15.1%) and HR/9 (1.71) of his career. That coincides directly with his Statcast numbers with Scherzer additionally giving up the highest barrel (8.9%) and hard-hit (37.7%) rates since tracking began in 2015.

All of that bodes well for a Toronto lineup that has begun to heat up over the last few weeks. Since Bo Bichette returned to the lineup on August 19th, the Blue Jays rank 7th in wOBA (.351) and ISO (.194), and they're 8th in wRC+ (124). Though they've only won 13 of 21 games over that span and dropped yesterday's opener 4-10, the Blue Jays may actually have the advantage on the mound thanks to Hyun-jin Ryu.

Ryu has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball since making his season debut on August 1st. Over that span, he boasts the 12th-lowest ERA (2.65) while allowing a measly .298 wOBA. He's registered strong quality of contact numbers, notably limiting opposing hitters to 34.3% hard-hit and 5.9% barrel rates.

While the Rangers' lineup is potent on paper, they've really cooled off over the second half of the season, especially against lefties.

In that split over the last month, Texas ranks just 15th in wOBA (.326) and 20th in ISO (.153) while registering the third-lowest HR/FB rate (9.0%) in the league. Ryu hardly gives up fly balls as it is (50.0% groundball rate versus a 29.0% flyball rate), so the Rangers likely won't have a ton of chances to put up runs.

That pitching duel, coupled with Toronto's recent success at the dish, makes them a quality home moneyline play at nearly plus odds.

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers

Under 7.5 (-102)

We close things out with a total play in the Miami Marlins-Milwaukee Brewers matchup. With two feeble offenses and (at least) one quality arm on the bump, this is an intriguing spot to take the under with the total set at 7.5.

Kicking things off with the visitors, J.T. Chargois will serve as the opener before ceding the mound to Edward Cabrera. Those two were a stellar combination last week, with Chargois pitching a shutout first before Cabrera tossed 4.0 one-hit innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers' high-powered offense.

That marked Cabrera's first appearance since the end of July, and boy, did he look sharp. He generated 11 swinging strikes en route to 8 strikeouts while walking just 2 batters. Cabrera has been a strikeout machine this season (28.7% K rate) but has struggled mightily with walks (15.3% BB rate).

Both Cabrera and Chargois could feast against a Brewers lineup that has struggled against righties over the second half. Since the All-Star break, Milwaukee has the fourth-lowest wOBA (.300), the fifth-lowest wRC+ (86), and by far the lowest ISO (.126) in that split.

So, while the Marlins won't have an ace out there, the two expected to handle a majority of the innings have everything lined up for them to thrive on the bump.

On the other side, the Brewers do have an ace on the mound.

No, this isn't a Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff day.

Instead, arguably their best pitcher over the last three months, Freddy Peralta, gets the starting nod. Peralta has been absolutely dominant lately. In 10 starts since the All-Star break, Peralta has given up more than three runs just once (to the Atlanta Braves). Over that span, Peralta ranks 7th in SIERA (3.57) and 4th in strikeout rate (30.8%) while forcing the 13th-highest rate of soft contact (17.1%) and the 12th-lowest hard-hit rate (37.7%).

He has a chance to add yet another quality start to his resume tonight against a Marlins lineup that is downright pitiful against righties. Since the break, Miami ranks 25th in both wOBA (.303) and wRC+ (88) while generating hard contact at the third-lowest rate (31.3%) against right-handed pitchers.

While the Brewers pounded the Marlins for 12 runs in yesterday's opener, I'm not expecting them to have nearly as much success tonight against Miami's opener/bulk reliever combination. With Peralta on the bump for the Brewers, Miami shouldn't be able to do much offensively, either.

Put those together and you have the recipe for a juicy under despite a low 7.5-run total.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.