MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 8/29/23: Riding a Pair of Home Favorites

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners

Mariners -1.5 (-137)

With the hottest team in baseball (the Seattle Mariners) hosting the worst team in baseball (the Oakland Athletics), it's hard to believe the Mariners are only -137 favorites to cover this run line.

That's especially surprising after the Mariners managed a convincing 7-0 win yesterday in which they out-hit the A's 14-4.

Seattle must be trotting out some no-name Triple-A pitcher then, right?

Not exactly.

George Kirby toes the rubber for the Mariners tonight, and he is looking to get back on track after allowing seven runs across his last two starts. While the recent form is a tad concerning at face value, I'm not worried about him tonight. Kirby has been borderline elite all season, sporting a 3.67 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He's had some blow-ups over the second half of the season, but most of those have come away from T-Mobile Park.

In 12 home starts, Kirby has been almost untouchable, running a 2.87 ERA while allowing a measly .255 wOBA. He's dramatically upped his strikeout rate at home (26.8%) compared to on the road (19.6%) while still maintaining stellar ground-ball (42.6%) and hard-contact (30.5%) rates.

Oakland's offense, meanwhile, has been horrendous over the second half, especially against righties. In addition to averaging the third-fewest runs per game (3.68), the A's sport the lowest rate of hard contact (30.4%) and the seventh-lowest wOBA (.305) against right-handed pitchers since the All-Star break.

On the flip side, the Mariners should have no shortage of success against Oakland lefty Ken Waldichuk. Waldichuk isn't quite as hitter-friendly as his 6.05 ERA suggests, but it isn't like I'm scared of his 4.84 SIERA. He's allowed a .380 wOBA (a bottom-4% mark league-wide), and all four of his primary pitches have negative Run Values, per Baseball Savant.

That bodes well for a Seattle offense that has feasted on lefties over the second half. Since the All-Star break, the Mariners have registered the second-highest wOBA (.377) and second-best OPS (.875) against southpaws. Some of that can be attributed to a ridiculous .410 BABIP, but when you're hot, you're hot.

And, boy, Seattle is hot.

Having won 20 of 25 games in August, there's no reason to fade the Mariners in a home matchup against the lowly A's.

Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Orioles -1.5 (-110)

We're staying with a home favorite on the run line here, taking the Baltimore Orioles to cover -1.5 against the Chicago White Sox.

Like Seattle, Baltimore blanked their visitors in yesterday's series opener, holding Chicago to just two hits in a 9-0 win.

I don't expect much to change tonight -- not with Jesse Scholtens starting for the White Sox.

Scholtens has pitched to a 4.91 SIERA through 21 appearances (7 starts) this season. Despite some less-than-stellar offenses coming his way this month, he's given up 16 earned runs in his last 27 innings -- 10 of which have come in his two most recent outings against Oakland and the Colorado Rockies (at Coors, to be fair). While Scholtens actually does a decent job of limiting hard-hit balls (35.8%), he's a nonfactor in the strikeout department (16.8% K rate), and it's hard to survive with such a low swinging-strike rate (8.9%).

The Orioles' offense doesn't feature elite right-handed splits, but they should have plenty in the tank to get after Scholtens, with the O's sitting around league average in wOBA (.317), ISO (.168), and wRC+ (102) against righties. They've been a top-10 offense in August (5.36 runs per game) and have covered 1.5 runs in five of Dean Kremer's eight starts since the All-Star break.

With Kremer back on the mound tonight, they'll have a strong chance of doing so again. His 4.44 SIERA isn't elite, but it's not a killer when you're pitching behind a defense that has registered the second-highest fielding percentage (.989) and saved the eighth-most runs above average (30).

He'll also benefit from pitching against a Chicago lineup that will likely feature six righties compared to three lefties. Kremer has held righties to a strong .292 wOBA compared to a .361 wOBA against lefties. Kremer isn't a pitcher I love to rely on, but he's more than capable of getting the job done in a soft matchup.

And let me tell you, the White Sox are about as soft as it gets.

Since the All-Star break, Chicago has averaged the seventh-fewest runs per game (4.08). They've been especially abysmal against righties, ranking 29th in wOBA (.290) and 28th in both ISO (.133) and wRC+ (80).

We don't want to chase past results, but it's hard to ignore how dominant Baltimore looked against Chicago's south siders in yesterday's opener. I'm expecting more of the same tonight as the O's should cover as 1.5-run home favorites.

Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies

Braves Over 7.5 Total Runs (+110)

Turns out, when the best offense in baseball plays at the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, it leads to a lot of offense.

Who knew?

While the Atlanta Braves couldn't maintain their two run lead through the 5th inning for us yesterday, they still managed to blow past their 7.5-run team total, scoring four in the seventh and five in the ninth to close out a 14-4 win in the opener.

With Peter Lambert on the bump today for Colorado, Atlanta is well-positioned to put on another offensive show.

Despite giving up only five runs over his last two home starts, Lambert sports a 4.92 ERA for the season -- a little worse than his 4.48 SIERA but a bit better than his 5.13 ERA. He's running a decent 20.6% strikeout rate, but his 25.9% CSW% doesn't scare me considering the plethora of skilled hitters on Atlanta's side.

Perhaps most enticing about Lambert's profile from the Braves' perspective is his batted-ball data. Thus far, he's allowed 41.9% flyball and 15.9% HR/FB rates -- both concerning numbers when facing the homer-happy Braves at Coors. Atlanta laps the rest of the league in home runs per game (1.89) and HR/FB rate (19.4%) despite ranking a pedestrian 19th in total flyball rate (36.9%).

To be blunt, when the Braves put the ball in the air, it flies.

Far.

It certainly doesn't hurt Atlanta's case tonight that they've absolutely obliterated right-handed pitching over the second half. Since the All-Star break, the Braves lead the league in wOBA (.371) and ISO (.237) in that split -- a major contributor toward their league-leading 6.37 runs per game over that span.

With Atlanta such a heavy favorite, I'm still eyeing the Braves -1.5 First 5 Innings (-113), and there's some appeal in taking the Braves -1.5/ Over 10.5 (+135). But tonight, I'll take just the plus odds for their offense to plate at least eight runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.