MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 8/15/23: 3 Warm-Weather Overs to Target

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves

Over 10.5 (-111)

How do you think Luis Severino was feeling in the New York Yankees' dugout last night?

The Atlanta Braves did what they do with remarkable regularity, tallying double-digit runs at home again on Monday. They're the best offense, by wRC+, against both lefties and righties and are set to tee off on the struggling Severino tonight.

The former Wild Card starter has been a shell of himself in 2023. It doesn't take too much digging to see that, per an 8.06 ERA. His expected ERA (xERA) is 6.75 with a 46.2% hard-hit rate allowed, so it's not bad luck, either.

However, this alone isn't a good reason to bet the over. The other side actually is.

The Yanks have come back to life a bit since Aaron Judge returned; a 94 wRC+ against right-handers is a vast improvement from their slump without him. I think they've got a fairly gettable matchup with Bryce Elder. Elder isn't a bad hurler, but his 4.58 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), 17.7% strikeout rate, and 40.6% hard-hit rate allowed do leave him vulnerable to some bad luck or rough nights.

New York's offense was fairly quiet last night against a lefty with better numbers (Max Fried), so perhaps they get going a bit more tonight, but Atlanta has already shown in this series that they could handle this themselves against Severino.

Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals

Over 9.5 (-104)

Break up the Kansas City Royals.

Kansas City -- without some of their top names entering the year -- has become an offensive juggernaut in the past 30 days. They're fourth in OPS against right-handed pitching (.825) during this time, so a once-forgivable matchup might now be a difficult second pass at big-league hitters for Emerson Hancock of the Seattle Mariners.

Hancock's 1.80 ERA is tidy, but perhaps a 5.85 SIERA was a better reflection of how he waffled through his first start in MLB. He also struck out just 15.0% of the hitters he faced but did cede just a 35.7% hard-hit rate allowed. As a top-five prospect for the M's, better days are likely ahead, so it's good news we don't need him to blow up to cash this ticket.

That's because Jordan Lyles probably will. Lyles' 22-start sample is massive, so there's no disputing his ugly 5.12 SIERA or paltry 15.4% strikeout rate. He's ceded 1.71 HR/9 and won just three starts all year; we kind of know what we're getting at this stage. To make matters worse, the Mariners aren't far behind K.C. in OPS against righties during the past 30 days (.769).

Add in the fact that, in that same time period, the Royals' bullpen has comfortably the worst xFIP in MLB (5.19), and this wager below double digits seems solid.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

Over 12.5 (-105)

It wasn't a great Monday to swallow chalk at Coors Field. The Colorado Rockies won, and the under-cashed. While the outcome here is in significant doubt, we can likely count on baseball's funhouse today.

Both teams here are effectively staring at a bullpen game. The Arizona Diamondbacks have already confirmed that with Joe Mantiply (4.20 SIERA) getting the nod to begin. He hasn't eclipsed three innings in an appearance this year. Behind him, the Snakes' bullpen -- that blew last night's contest -- has the 13th-worst xFIP in MLB during the past month of play (4.41).

As uninspiring as they are, the Rockies are still likely at a significant deficit. Ty Blach, coming off a quality start in Los Angeles, will likely chew more innings, but his 6.17 xERA would contend that's likely not a good thing. From there, Colorado will be forced to its bullpen, which has the fourth-worst xFIP in MLB over the last month (4.81).

We're likely looking at 18 innings of mediocre pitching on both sides of this one at Coors Field, so the lone drama is if these two offenses -- as sluggish as they may be -- can explode. I think so.

Despite the rough box scores, the Rockies are third in hard-hit rate as an offense (38.0%) over the past 30 days, and the D-Backs (35.5%) are seventh. They're making good contact, and this is the perfect environment for that bad luck to turn into production.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.