MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 9/7/23: Riding the Dodgers' Young Hurler

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins

Dodgers ML (-124)

With Ryan Pepiot back on the bump for the Los Angeles Dodgers, the road favorites are an intriguing moneyline play in their bout with the Miami Marlins.

After missing the first 4.5 months of the season, the 26-year-old righty has looked dominant in his first three starts of the year. He's given up just 2 runs and 8 hits in 14 innings of work, striking out 14 while walking only 2 in the process. With Julio Urias' future clouded, Pepiot was recalled back to the majors and likely has a spot in the starting rotation for the rest of the season.

Given how well Pepiot has pitched in limited action, it's hard not to get excited about his prospects tonight given how shaky the Marlins have been against righties. Since the All-Star break, Miami ranks 21st in ISO (.165) in the split as well as 23rd in both wOBA (.308) and wRC+ (92). Though they don't strike out much in the split (19.0%), Miami's lack of hard contact (32.0%) over the second half puts Pepiot in a strong position to deliver yet another strong outing.

On the flip side, the Dodgers should feast against lefty Braxton Garrett.

Garrett has been up and down this season and boasts a shining 3.56 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He does an excellent job getting opposing hitters to chase (84th-percentile 32.1% chase rate) and hardly ever issues free passes (3.8% walk rate) but gives up an absurd amount of hard contact. With a bottom-6% 46.1% hard-hit rate, Garrett is certainly someone skilled hitters can take advantage of.

And, boy, do the Dodgers have skilled hitters.

Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman both sit in the top 10 in wOBA (.458 and .441, respectively) against left-handed pitchers. With those two leading the way, the Dodgers have been one of the most explosive offenses in the league versus southpaws. As a team, they've posted the sixth-highest wRC+ (116) and the second-highest ISO (.214) in the split.

Between Pepiot's recent track record and LA's prowess against lefties, the Dodgers to win outright is my favorite play on a light Thursday slate.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs

Over 8.5 (-106)

With 39 runs in their last four games, the Chicago Cubs come into tonight with one of the hottest lineups in baseball. Considering their matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks carries a measly 8.5-run total, I'm all in on the over.

Both starting pitchers have the underlying numbers to support a big offensive night.

For the D-backs, Ryne Nelson gets the starting nod. He's had a rough year with a 5.47 ERA, and his 5.23 SIERA suggests he's been rightfully shelled. Nelson sports only a 15.2% strikeout rate and gives up a staggering rate of hard hits (42.6%) and barrels (11.2%). Even with the wind blowing in at Wrigley, the Cubs shouldn't have any issues putting runs on the board.

Since the All-Star break, Chicago has averaged the third-most runs per game overall (6.0) and posted the second-highest wOBA (.358) against righties. Over that same span, they've registered the third-highest wRC+ (126) and the fifth-highest ISO (.204) in that split.

On the opposite side, Arizona's offense should be able to hold up their end of the deal against Javier Assad.

Assad has recorded exceptional results this season with a 2.69 ERA. However, a deeper look into his expected stats suggests some regression is coming. Assad sports a 4.53 expected ERA and has a less-than-ideal 9.5% walk rate. He's given up a 39.5 hard-hit rate and struggled to generate strikeouts with a 19.3% K rate. While Assad hasn't given up more than two runs in a game since entering Chicago's starting rotation, he's due to give up some runs.

That could very well come tonight as the Diamondbacks have a solid offense against righties. In the split, Arizona ranks 11th in both wOBA (.325) and ISO (.173) while clocking in at a respectable 15th in wRC+. Though the Snakes have cooled off somewhat over the second half, we don't need much from them to hit this over on 8.5 runs as long as Chicago does its thing.

That's the beauty of this play. Both pitchers are primed for blowups, but we don't need anything crazy for nine runs to be scored.

Heck, considering how the Cubs have hit recently, they could accomplish it themselves.

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves

Braves Over 6.5 (-106)

After dropping the first two games at home to the last-place St. Louis Cardinals, the Atlanta Braves' offense can bounce back in a huge way tonight.

Regardless of the matchup, the Braves are always an enticing play to score lots of runs against righties. In that split, Atlanta's offense leads the league in wRC+ (120), wOBA (.353) and ISO (.221). They've been just as good over the second half of the season, averaging the second-most runs per game (6.2) since the break.

While stars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson steal the spotlight, this Atlanta lineup is incredibly deep. Since the break, the Braves have seven players running wOBAs north of .350 and six hitters with at least a .250 ISO against right-handed pitchers. Even if the Cardinals were trotting out an absolute ace, Atlanta would have a good shot to do damage.

St. Louis isn't starting an ace.

Far from it.

Adam Wainwright gets the nod tonight, bringing with him one of the worst pitching profiles in the league this season. The long-time star has been a shell of his former self this year and sits in the bottom 1% of the league in expected ERA (7.66), expected wOBA (.408), and expected slugging percentage (.569). He's been one of the most hitter-friendly pitchers in baseball and has given up six-plus runs in three of his last five starts.

This is a mouthwatering matchup for Atlanta's high-octane offense, and they should cruise to a run total north of 6.5.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.