MLB Betting Guide for Monday 10/16/23: Trusting Home Favorites

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros

Astros ML (-124)

The Houston Astros may have dropped their series opener to the Texas Rangers, but I'm expecting them to even the series tonight.

For starters, the Astros have their ace, Framber Valdez, on the bump. Yes, Valdez got rocked in his only other start this postseason.

And yes, Valdez posted a 4.66 ERA over the second half of the season.

But I'm not worried about those small sample sizes. Valdez is a bonafide ace. Even with some second-half struggles, Valdez finished the regular season with a 3.45 ERA, a 24.8% strikeout rate, and a 54.2% groundball rate. His 4.3 WAR was among the 12-best pitcher WARs in the league, and his 3.39 expected FIP ranked seventh.

Valdez has also proven it on the biggest stage as well. He picked up three wins across 25.0 innings of work last postseason, posting a 1.44 ERA and 34.4% strikeout rate in the process.

He faced the Rangers three times during the regular season. While Texas pegged him for six runs in 3.2 innings during one of those starts, he held them to just a pair of earned runs in the other two starts' 13.0 innings.

While Texas does boast a lethal offense, they quietly struggled against southpaws over the second half of the year. From the All-Star break onward, the Rangers ranked just 16th in wOBA (.316) and 13th in ISO (.170) while striking out at the 14th-highest clip (23.6%) in that split.

On the opposite side, I'm really into Houston's chances against Nathan Eovaldi.

The righty has been lights out in his two postseason starts thus far, allowing just a pair of runs while striking out 15 across 13.2 innings. However, he struggled to close out the year with a 9.30 ERA across six starts in August and September. While his season-long ERA (3.63) remained solid, his 4.18 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is more indicative of how he pitched. Eovaldi notably walked 8.1% of hitters and allowed a 43.1% hard-hit rate despite his above-average ERA -- both of which are noticeably higher than his career marks.

Houston, meanwhile, absolutely shredded righties over the second half of the year. From the All-Star break onward, the Astros posted the second-highest wOBA (.353), the fourth-highest ISO (.200), and the second-lowest strikeout rate (18.9%) in that split. They got to Eovaldi early the last time they faced him, forcing him out after just 1.1 innings thanks to a 4-run shellacking.

There's also just something to be said about backing such an experienced Astros team coming off a loss. Houston has been in this position before and they're more than comfortable rebounding from a postseason loss.

Dating back to 2020, the Astros are 8-4 straight up in the playoffs following a loss. Of those eight wins, seven of them came by at least two runs. Even during the regular season, Houston had a proficiency for bouncing back from their losses. They went 43-30 straight up during such occurrences, the fourth-best record in the league.

There would be some temptation to take them on an alternate runline like Astros -1.5 (+164) or just to back the standard Astros +1.5 (-200), but I don't like to mess around with runlines during the postseason.

If the -124 from the Astros moneyline isn't enough juice, you can always pair it with a few of our favorite player props and take advantage of FanDuel's Same Game Parlay Profit Boost.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies -1.5 (+126)

On the National League's side, we're treated to one a doozy of a pitching matchup when the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Philadelphia Phillies.

Zac Gallen toes the rubber for the visiting D-backs. Gallen was lights-out this season, finishing with a 3.47 ERA, a 26.0% strikeout rate, and a 3.27 FIP. He posted the best WAR season of his career (5.2) -- though, his Statcast metrics suggest Philly could have success against him.

For as good as Gallen pitched, his hard-hit rate (46.2%) and barrel rate (9.2%) allowed left a lot to be desired.

He's also looked pretty hittable in both of his prior postseason starts. While he managed to pick up a pair of wins, Gallen has allowed 10 hits and four earned runs across 11.1 innings of work, striking out just eight in the process.

That bodes well for Philly, especially given how well they hit righties over the second half.

From the All-Star break onward, the Phillies ranked seventh in wOBA (.334), second in ISO (.205), and ninth in wRC+ (109) in that split. Their wOBA (.345) and ISO (.218) both saw noticeable increases against that split at home, further bolstering their case tonight.

However, the biggest factor in Philly covering 1.5 runs tonight is their own starter. Zack Wheeler.

Wheeler was consistently one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. He finished the regular season with a 3.61 ERA, a 3.53 SIERA, and a 26.9% strikeout rate. Wheeler posted elite hard-hit (36.4%) and barrel (5.1%) rates and has carried that dominance into the playoffs.

Wheeler has somehow improved on last postseason's 2.78 ERA thus far, giving up just three earned runs across 13 innings of work this playoffs. His strikeout stuff has been particularly impressive this year as he's struck out 18 batters thus far -- good for a 37.5% strikeout rate.

Arizona features some capable hitters themselves, but they weren't especially impressive against righties away from their home ballpark. In that split, Arizona ranked just 14th in wOBA (.314), 20th in ISO (.160), and 15th in wRC+ (96).

With Wheeler on the bump, and considering how well they've hit at home, the Phillies should have more than enough left in the tank to cover as 1.5-run favorites tonight.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.