MLB Betting Guide for Friday 9/8/23: Expecting Runs in Cincy

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St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

Over 10.0 Runs (-112)

We kick things off in the Queen City where young pitchers and favorable ballpark conditions could lead to an onslaught of offense between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds.

Lefty Drew Rom makes his fourth career start for the Cardinals tonight. Rom was acquired by St. Louis at the trade deadline and was called up after posting a stellar 10.9 K/9 in 97.0 Triple-A innings -- though he was far from perfect with a 4.82 ERA and a 4.6 BB/9.

He's faced similar struggles in the Majors and allowed 18 hits, 8 walks, and 11 earned runs in his first three starts. While 11 strikeouts in 13.2 innings isn't bad, it'll be hard to overcome a 43.8% fly-ball rate in a hitter-friendly park like Great American.

Although the Reds' lineup sits around league-average against southpaws, they've been one of the better home offenses in baseball this season. At home, Cincy holds the 11th-highest ISO (.176) and 13th-highest wOBA (.323). It's not a dream matchup for the Reds, but considering Rom struggled to contain the lowly Pirates, it clearly doesn't take much to get the rookie.

On the opposite side, Cincy will send out their own rookie southpaw, Andrew Abbott.

Abbott has delivered some dominant performances in his young career but hasn't been quite as sharp across his last seven outings. Over that span, he's posted a 5.67 ERA and 4.63 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) while walking opposing hitters at an 11.1% clip. Abbott has allowed less-than-ideal 10.2% barrel and 44.9% hard-hit rates since July 31st and continues to give up a lot of fly balls (49.5%).

Abbott did toss 5.2 innings of shutout baseball against the Cardinals back in June, but I'm not expecting similar results tonight. For one, St. Louis has really picked things up against lefties. In that split since the All-Star break, the Cardinals rank 13th in both wOBA (.317) and wRC+ (101). They've been particularly hot over their last eight outings during which they averaged 6.38 runs per game.

I mentioned both pitchers' fly-ball rates because of tonight's ballpark factors. Great American is already the most home run-friendly park in baseball, but with the wind blowing out to right field, we could see even more yabos than usual tonight.

Consequently, runs should come early and often for both squads. A 10.0-run total is no cakewalk, but considering the favorable hitting conditions and how hot the Cardinals have been, I have faith we see a fair amount of offense in Cincy tonight.

New York Mets at Minnesota Twins

Mets ML (-112)

We travel north next where I like the visiting New York Mets on the moneyline against the Minnesota Twins.

This has almost everything to do with the pitching matchup, as Kodai Senga is lined up for a marvelous outing against one of the most strikeout-heavy teams in baseball.

Senga has enjoyed a stellar debut season in the States with a 3.08 ERA, 29.3% strikeout rate, and 46.4% ground ball rate. With quality starts in seven of his nine outings since the All-Star break, there aren't many pitchers shoving as well as Senga right now.

The matchup is ripe with potential for him tonight. The Twins have been stellar against righties lately, ranking fourth in both wOBA (.351) and ISO (.206) since the All-Star break. However, they also have the highest strikeout rate (27.9%) over that span and have gotten pretty lucky with a league-leading .331 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). It won't be easy, but Senga has the chops to carry the load defensively.

Thus, New York's chances of winning outright hinge on their offense. They'll take on the recently resurrected Dallas Keuchel, who has delivered a trio of dominant performances but also a pair of blow-ups in five MLB starts this season. I'm more inclined to believe he'll add to the latter considering his 5.50 SIERA and miniscule 8.6% strikeout rate.

It helps that the Mets have really picked things up against lefties. Since August 1st, they rank a respectable 11th in wOBA (.338) against southpaws, simultaneously posting the eighth-highest ISO (.197) and 10th-highest wRC+ (117) in that split.

New York's pitching advantage will likely be too much for Minnesota to overcome tonight, making them a strong moneyline play at almost even odds.

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

Giants -0.5 F5 (-138)

Jumping time zones, we close things out on the West Coast where I like the San Francisco Giants -0.5 in the first five innings against the Colorado Rockies.

This play boils down to one man and one man only -- Kyle Harrison.

San Fran's phenom rookie has been electric through his first three starts. Although a six-run blow-up in his previous outing has inflated his ERA to 4.70, he's still running a 3.51 SIERA to go along with a dominant 36.0% called-plus-swinging-strike rate (CSW%). The lefty was MLB Pipeline's No. 20 overall prospect prior to his promotion and has looked the part of a future ace in the early goings.

After taking on three solid offenses in his first three outings, Harrison now gets the single-easiest matchup in baseball for lefties -- the Rockies.

Colorado sports an absolutely abysmal 64 wRC+ against southpaws -- far and away the worst mark in the league. In that split, they additionally rank last in strikeout rate (26.7%), 29th in wOBA (.289), and 24th in ISO (.148). Aided by pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, Harrison should feast, and a shutout through the first five innings is certainly in play.

As a result, we just need the Giants to have some resemblance of offense early on if we want to cash this wager.

That's easier said than done, but they have a soft matchup against Rockies starter Ty Blach. The 32-year-old lefty has only thrown 54 innings in the Majors this season, but his 4.33 ERA is only a marginal improvement on his career 5.00 mark. He's only generated 28 strikeouts thus far and sits in the bottom 1% of the league in both whiff rate (14.5%) and expected batting average allowed (.321).

The Giants are no world-beaters against lefties, but they've been better over the last month. Since August 1st, they rank an acceptable 20th in wOBA (.303) and 17th in wRC+ (93).

Considering Blach allowed five runs in the first two innings of his last start, San Francisco is well-positioned to at least score a single run in the first five innings. With Harrison toeing the rubber, that may be all they need to secure a lead after the first five frames.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.