MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 8/21/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our MLB projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Best MLB Player Props Today

Mitchell Parker Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)

The Washington Nationals' Mitchell Parker comes off his first six-strikeout outing in over a month. Plus, he did it in only three innings of work. Parker gets to face one of MLB's most strikeout-happy teams on Wednesday as the Colorado Rockies have the second-highest strikeout percentage (K%) against left-handed pitchers. This also rises from 25.7% against righties to 27.2% when facing southpaws.

Colorado has even seen its average spike over the last 12 games at 10.4 Ks per contest compared to the 9.8-season average. Parker is in the 61st percentile of chase rate, via Baseball Savant, and the Rockies have the second-highest chase percentage in baseball. The numbers are certainly lining up for another strong K outing from Parker.

The biggest concern for Parker's strikeout prop could be the length of his start. He's failed to go past the third inning in three of his previous six starts. Colorado is in the bottom half of runs scored against lefties and are totaling only 3.9 runs per game over the last seven games -- below its season average of 4.26 runs.

Parker has the ideal pitches to avoid an early pull, as well. He leans on a four-seam fastball (49.6%) with curveballs (23.3%) and splitters (17.7%) sprinkled in. The Rockies have the 8th-fewest runs above average against fastballs, the 5th-fewest when facing curveballs, and the 14th-lowest mark against splitters. This isn't a completely incompetent batting order, either, with the 17th-most runs scored. Sitting this low against Parker's most-used pitches speaks volumes.

Washington's starter was still able to produce six strikeouts in three innings on August 15th. Parker has the stuff to provide a quality start against the stumbling Rockies thanks to his pitch usage. If that's the case, six Ks looks likely against one of the league's worst strikeout teams.

Tyler Stephenson to Record 2+ Total Bases (+120)

The Cincinnati Reds' run production hasn't been the best over their last five games with 2.4 runs per contest, so I'm not a big fan of RBI props for the Redlegs tonight. However, one bases line is catching my eye.

Tyler Stephenson has hit his groove in August, carrying a slash line of .283/.338/.600 compared to his season mark of .248/.323/.452. Cincy's catcher is also on a six-game hitting streak and has reached at least two bases twice during that span.

The Toronto Blue Jays are sending Yariel Rodriguez to the mound on Wednesday. He's posted some pretty concerning xFIPs in recent starts, such as 4.78 on August 16th and 22.66 on July 29th. You read that right -- a 22.66 xFIP!

Adding to Stephenson's case for two bases, he hits above his season average when facing four-seam fastballs (.265) and sliders (.269). Rodriguez heavily leans on this pair of pitches, dealing a four-seamer on 44.0% of his pitches along with a 26.3% usage rate for his slider.

FanDuel Research's daily game projections have Stephenson with a median base total of 2.19. If correct, this holds a 64.3% implied probability for reaching at least two bases. That's -180 odds compared to the listed +120 line (45.5% implied probability). There's a lot to love about Stephenson reaching two bases tonight.

Zach Neto to Record a Run (-115)

Zach Neto has the highest projected run total (0.75) on the Los Angeles Angels. He's generated three runs over his last two games in large part thanks to two home runs. His +560 odds to jack a big fly suggest we shouldn't bank on a homer for Neto to cross the home plate, though.

Michael Lorenzen, who is pitching for the Kansas City Royals tonight, has generally struggled with sluggers, sitting in the bottom 40% of barrel percentage and hard-hit rate. He also gave up two home runs over his previous two outings. The Halos' home run leader still has a decent shot of going yard tonight.

Additionally, Neto hits over his season average of .262 when facing four-seam fastballs (.271) and sinkers (.282), which are Lorenzen's most-used pitches. He hits second in the lineup with Nolan Schanuel in the third slot. We've seen Schanuel heat up over his previous five games, touting a five-game hitting streak while totaling four doubles during the span.

Neto has the power to generate a run with one swing of the bat, and he's matching up well with Lorenzen. The cherry on top is Schanuel hitting well in the three-hole. Projections are giving Neto an implied probability of 52.8% to record a run (or -112 odds). That's nearly on par with his -115 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.