MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Thursday 8/1/24
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing MLB projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
MLB Player Props
Bobby Witt Jr. To Record An RBI (+125)
Keider Montero will make his seventh career start for the Detroit Tigers tonight.
Montero has suffered a 6.38 ERA, 5.35 xERA, 4.37 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, and 4.34 SIERA through 36 2/3 frames. We don't have a huge sample for him, but the control has been lacking. He's let up at least one dinger in all but one start and has given up six long balls across his last 15 1/3 IP.
Detroit's rookie has struggled in same-handed matchups. He's allowed righties to go 20-for-65 (.308 BA) at the plate, including 6 doubles, 6 home runs, and a 50.9% fly-ball rate.
Enter Bobby Witt Jr., one of the best hitters in baseball who should be capable of exploiting this matchup.
Witt produces a .345 BA (best in MLB) and .251 ISO versus righties, good for a .597 SLG (fifth-best). He also owns an intriguing 45.5% fly-ball rate in this split.
Across the last 30 days of play, Witt has been smashing to the tune of a 14.6% barrel rate, 46.3% fly-ball rate, and .344 ISO. He's recorded 76 RBIs (sixth-most in MLB) through 109 games.
Charlie Morton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-126)
Charlie Morton of the Atlanta Braves has a lot of things working in his favor tonight, so I'll be looking at the over on his strikeout prop.
For starters, Morton will pitch at home. He owns a 3.32 ERA and 4.02 xFIP at home and allows just a .310 wOBA and 0.79 homers per nine innings in this split. His road numbers are much uglier, including a 5.14 ERA and 1.65 home runs per nine.
He'll also get to take on the Miami Marlins. The Marlins come in with a .292 wOBA (28th) and 87 wRC+ (27th) against right-handed pitchers. They strike out at a decent enough 23.0% rate (13th) against this handedness. Plus, Miami recently dumped some of their top hitters prior to the trade deadline, including Jazz Chisholm, Bryan De La Cruz, and Josh Bell.
It should be an easy night on the mound for Morton, who produces a 23.2% K% and strikes out 8.75 batters through nine innings.
Morton has exceeded 5.5 Ks in 9 out of 19 starts, including 5 out of 10 at home.
More importantly, he's pitched six games against teams that rank in the top half of K% versus righties and the bottom half of wOBA versus righties. In this split, Morton eclipsed 5.5 strikeouts in five out of six games, averaging 6.5 punchouts. As mentioned, Miami fits this bill, faring 28th in wOBA and 13th in K%.
Austin Riley To Record 2+ Bases (-110)
Let's stick with the Braves and trail a hot hand in Austin Riley.
Riley got off to a slow start this season but has been heating up. Across the last 30 days of play, he's been generating a 20.6% barrel rate, 60.3% hard-hit rate, 49.2% fly-ball rate, and .247 ISO. Those numbers reek of an extra-base hit, putting Riley in a good spot to clear this prop with one swing of the bat.
He'll meet up with Max Meyer of the Marlins. Meyer has made four starts for Miami this season, surrendering a home run in all but one of those games. In his two-year career in the majors, he's allowed righties to go 16-for-55 at the plate, including 5 doubles, 1 triple, and 4 home runs.
Riley, meanwhile, touts a 42.7% fly-ball rate and .468 SLG versus right-handed pitchers. Meyer will have his work cut out for him facing Atlanta on the road. It doesn't hurt that Miami's bullpen ranks 22nd in xFIP and 24th in SIERA. Riley should see some good opportunities against weak arms, so I'll back him to nab a pair of bases.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.