MLB

MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Saturday 7/20/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Saturday 7/20/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Player Props

Marcell Ozuna to Record an RBI (+125)

Monday's Home Run Derby didn't go Marcell Ozuna's way, but he can kick off the second half of the season in style. We're looking at his RBI prop in today's first matchup against Kyle Gibson and the St. Louis Cardinals.

The bottom of the the Atlanta Braves order is incredibly squishy, but Gibson will still have elite bats to navigate -- and I'm not optimistic. The righty's 4.16 ERA is fortunate thus far, per a 4.92 expected ERA (xERA). His barrel rate (10.0%) is in the bottom 15% of baseball, and the sinkerballer's groundball rate (48.0%) is the second-lowest of his career.

A low strikeout rate pitcher like Gibson (22.3%) should help Ozuna's main -- if not lone -- issue against righties. Otherwise, he's crushed them all season, including a .747 OPS, 109 wRC+, and .191 ISO in the past 30 days.

Ozuna was bumped back to the five spot in the order in Atlanta's last game against a righty on Sunday, so he'll be buried behind solid hitters to knock in a run if the Braves are able to get to Gibson on Saturday afternoon. Our daily MLB projections expect 0.94 RBIs from him, which would roughly merit -156 odds on this line.

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Logan O'Hoppe to Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)

The Los Angeles Angels appeared to miss Logan O'Hoppe in yesterday's 13-3 loss.

O'Hoppe may not have been able to help, though; he likely sat due to splits against lefties. In the past 30 days, he's posted a horrendous 17 wRC+ while striking out 29.7% of the time. We've got reverse splits at play with the right-handed batter, amassing a team-best 159 wRC+, .317 average, and .917 OPS against righties in the past month. For this prop, it's helpful he's only totaled one walk in the period, as well.

Mitch Spence of the Oakland Athletics is no intimidating righty. Spence's 3.99 xERA shows he's been a bit unfortunate, but only so much of that can be blamed on luck with a 44.5% hard-hit rate and 9.7% barrel rate that both rank in the bottom 20% of MLB qualifiers. Oakland's bullpen also has the fourth-worst xFIP in the past 30 days (4.34) when he departs.

We've got O'Hoppe projected for 2.10 total bases this afternoon.

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Brady Singer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Normally, strikeout props against the Chicago White Sox will be blindly bet out of value range. This one was an exception.

That's perhaps due to four or fewer Ks from Brady Singer in five of his last seven starts, but he's been a bit unlucky on that front. Singer's overall whiff (24.7%) and strikeout (22.6%) rates this season are good enough to bury Chicago, who have wilted after a midseason resurgence.

The White Sox have a league-worst 75 wRC+ in the past 30 days against righties, accompanied by a 24.0% punchout rate (10th-highest). This is a play on volume when Singer, behind a 3.81 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), should be able to pitch fairly deep into this ballgame.

Our projections have a median expectation of 5.45 innings and 4.96 strikeouts for Singer in this matchup, but the right-hander is also -138 to record at least 6.0 innings on FanDuel. If he's encroaching a quality start in this matchup, it's hard to believe he won't have picked up 5 Ks along the way.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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