MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Friday 8/23/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our MLB projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Best MLB Player Props Today

Tanner Bibee Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-148)

The Cleveland Guardians' Tanner Bibee is riding a hot streak with a 1.65 ERA over his previous five starts. Meanwhile, Texas Rangers are logging only 2.6 runs per contest over their previous seven games and have reached double-digit strikeouts in three consecutive games.

Targeting Bibee's recorded outs is shaping up to be the best pitching prop for the Rangers-Guardians game. Advanced stats are even backing up Bibee's hot streak, for the second-year pitcher posted a 2.78 xFIP in his most recent outing.

Pitch usage is another feather in Bibee's cap. He leans on a four-seam fastball (44.3%), slider (26.3%), and changeup (18.3%), via Baseball Savant. According to FanGraphs, the Rangers have the seventh-fewest runs above average against four-seamers and the second-lowest mark when facing changeups.

Stacking strikeouts can certainly make things a bit easier for starters, as well. Bibee is in the 78th percentile of strikeout percentage (K%), and we already mentioned Texas' recent strikeout woes. After totaling only 3.0 strikeouts per start from July 19th to July 29th, Bibee's production is back up to the tune of 6.0 Ks per contest over his last two. He even posted a 38.9 K% in his most recent appearance. Going over his 5.5 strikeout prop is another intriguing prop.

FanDuel Research's daily projections are the final piece of the puzzle. Over 17.5 outs recorded will require six innings from Bibee. Projections have Bibee pitching for 5.93 innings. That's pretty much right in line for six innings, making the over the clear choice.

Hunter Brown to Record 7+ Strikeouts (+186)

Let's look at another pitcher prop for Friday's slate. Hunter Brown has reached eight strikeouts in three of his past five starts. He sits in the 70th percentile of strikeout rate with a 25.5 K%. Over his past five outings, he's surpassed his K% season average three times with strikeout percentages of 42.9%, 29.6%, and 30.8%.

The Baltimore Orioles are far from an easy task, carrying the third-most runs scored paired with the 11th-lowest K%. However, the O's are averaging 10.0 strikeouts per contest over their last two compared to their season average of 8.2.

Additionally, Brown is about as good as it gets in limiting hard contact, sitting in the 96th percentile of average exit velocity, the 92nd percentile in barrel percentage, and 96th percentile in hard-hit rate. He's surrendered only one homer over his last six starts. This carries a ton of weight in this matchup, for the Orioles have the highest slugging percentage (SLG) and isolated power (ISO) in baseball.

Brown has shaken up his pitch usage over the last five, which is likely contributing to his increase in strikeouts. His four-seam fastball touts the highest K rate (35.8%), yet he's featured the pitch less. His cutter and sinker usage have spiked. The sinker could be a big key with the O's sitting outside the top half in runs above average against the pitch. This is a team that is in the top 10 of this category against nearly every pitch, such as holding the fourth-most runs above average against four-seam fastballs.

Projections round out this pick as Brown holds a projected median of 6.87 strikeouts. Over 5.5 strikeouts holds only -118 odds while seven Ks is at +186. If correct, this projection holds a 53.1% implied probability (equal to -113 odds) for reaching at least seven strikeouts. This is golden value for a juicy line.

Alex Bregman to Record an RBI (+180)

Virtually no one is producing like Alex Bregman in August. His slash line sits at .328/.369/.705 this month compared to his season marks of .261/.319/.448. The spike in slugging -- which has included five doubles and six big flies this month -- has led to a huge jump in RBIs. He's produced nine ribbies over his last 11 games (per-game average of 0.8).

Bregman is carrying the highest projected median RBIs for today at 1.02. That's a 63.9% implied probability for at least one RBI; the +180 odds' implied probability is only 35.7% for an RBI. Recent production and his projections are all over this line. The matchup for tonight even checks out.

The O's are putting Cade Povich on the mound, and he holds dreadful marks with a 5.58 SIERA and 5.85 xFIP. Povich is carrying an 8.47 ERA over his previous four starts. During this span, he's featured some inflated xFIPs, such as 9.30 and 16.21.

The Houston Astros are poised to put up runs tonight, especially with Baltimore's bullpen holding the ninth-highest ERA. If Povich is pulled early, the raking probably won't stop.

Bregman is usually hitting second in the batting order, and the typical leadoff man -- Jose Altuve -- is batting .300 over his last five contests. There's a good chance Bregman will come up the plate with runners on base. I'm riding the hot hand by taking Bregman to knock in another base runner.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.