MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Wednesday 10/2/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Royals at Orioles

First 5 Innings Under 3.5 Runs (+102)

It was a battle of the arms at Camden Yards yesterday. Corbin Burnes rallied for eight innings and allowed just one run for the Baltimore Orioles, but that wasn't enough to seal the deal after the Kansas City Royals pitched a shutout against Baltimore's offense.

Can the pitching rule the day for Game 2? I think Seth Lugo and Zach Eflin can make that happen, at least through the first five frames.

Seth Lugo shoves. This season, he has mastered a 3.00 ERA (10th-best in MLB), 3.72 xERA, and 3.83 xFIP. He limits opponents to 0.70 home runs per nine innings, the seventh-lowest mark in baseball. He also allows a tame .131 ISO, 34.1% fly-ball rate, and 0.60 homers per nine versus lefties, which could protect him against a lefty-dominant Baltimore lineup, including Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander.

The O's will likely be aggressive on the basepaths since their season is on the line, but Lugo's low 5.7% walk rate and .227 batting average allowed could prove limiting through the first five innings.

Since joining Baltimore in late July, Eflin has produced a 2.60 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, and 3.96 SIERA. He's also managed a minuscule 4.9% walk rate and 1.12 WHIP in that span. Let's look for him to keep it going against a Kansas City lineup that has historically struggled on the road.

This season, the Royals have suffered a .236 BA (18th), .388 SLG (17th), and a rough .295 wOBA (25th) away from home. We saw the offense struggle last night, logging just one run and zero extra-base hits. I like the under through five.

Mets at Brewers

Brandon Nimmo To Record An RBI (+175)

The New York Mets have an opportunity to move on to the NLDS tonight. With Frankie Montas on the bump for the opposing Milwaukee Brewers, New York's offense has a chance to clinch in style.

Montas sports a 4.84 ERA, 4.71 xERA, 4.26 xFIP, and 4.38 SIERA. To lefties, he allows a .374 wOBA, .497 SLG, 38.2% fly-ball rate, and 1.98 home runs per nine innings (second-highest in MLB).

This leaves the left-handed Brandon Nimmo in a good spot to drive in a run.

Nimmo has been producing a 12.1% barrel rate, .283 ISO, and 39.4% fly-ball rate across the last 14 days. He's managed a 40.1% fly-ball rate against northpaws this season, so he could leverage his power against the fly-ball-prone Montas.

Beyond a great matchup, Nimmo has the advantage of batting third for the Mets. Not only could he see five at-bats in this one, but a red-hot Mets offense could have him swinging with runners in scoring position.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Marcell Ozuna to Hit a Home Run (+350)

The Atlanta Braves are at risk of being sent home tonight, but Marcell Ozuna could get them out of a sticky situation.

Ozuna is one of those guys who rakes in just about every split, but for the purpose of this clash against the right-handed Joe Musgrove, let's see how he fares in righty-right matchups. This season, Ozuna has belted righties to the tune of a .265 ISO, .561 SLG, and a 39.3% fly-ball rate. Overall, he mashed 39 home runs (fifth-most in MLB) in the regular season.

He hit a dry spell in the dog days of the season but has been heating up in his last 25 plate appearances, amassing a 46.7% fly-ball rate in that time. This date with Musgrove could have him rounding the bases for the first time in a little over a week.

Musgrove cedes a .350 wOBA, .214 ISO, and .484 SLG to right-handed batters. He also allows this handedness to post a 41.8% fly-ball rate and 1.76 home runs per nine frames.

It's not every day that we find this advantageous of a matchup in the postseason, and our MLB projections forecast Ozuna to hit a slate-high 0.37 home runs in this one.

Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Let's go back to the well on this Mets offense. Francisco Lindor has been dealing with back pain but returned to the Mets' lineup right in the nick of time. The injury is clearly still bothering him, as Lindor stated that he is not expecting to play "pain-free" this postseason.

For a guy with a bad back, Lindor is pretty dang good at this baseball thing.

Across the last 30 days of play, he's generated a 13.0% barrel rate, .295 ISO, 41.3% fly-ball rate, and 176 wRC+. He hit clutch dingers on Sunday and Monday for a Mets team that was seeking a playoff berth.

Beyond his recent heroics, we should be high on Lindor due to the matchup. As mentioned, Montas coughs up a .497 SLG, 38.2% fly-ball rate, and a massive 1.98 homers per nine innings to lefties.

The switch-hitting Lindor, meanwhile, has managed a 43.5% fly-ball rate versus righties in 2024. I'll side with New York's leadoff hitter to exploit this matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.