MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Tuesday 10/1/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles

Royals Moneyline (+128)

Game 1 of the Kansas City Royals-Baltimore Orioles features a best-on-best matchup between Cole Ragans and Corbin Burnes. Ragans posted a 1.08 ERA over four starts in September, which also included three single-game xFIPs of under 4.00 during that span. Burnes was pretty darn good in September, as well, posting a 1.20 ERA over five starts; he even posted single-game xFIPs of under 3.00 in two of his last three outings.

While Baltimore's hitting certainly poses a threat, the Royals have the ideal arm on the mound tonight. Against left-handed pitchers, the O's have been mediocre this season, recording the 17th-most runs (3rd-most against righties). Adding to the concern, Baltimore holds the eighth-fewest runs scored against southpaws over the last 30 days.

As one of baseball's most dangerous lineups, the Orioles have been excellent in runs above average against nearly every pitch. However, they have the ninth-fewest runs above average against fastballs over the last 30 days compared to the fifth-most on the season. Ragans' most-used pitch is a four-seam fastball (41.8%), via Baseball Savant. Plus, Baltimore's strikeout percentage (K%) is up to 23.6% over the last month (22.0% on the season). Ragans is in top 12% of K%, and the O's are averaging 9.7 strikeouts per game over their last three -- adding intrigue to Ragans to go over 5.5 strikeouts (-158).

Despite recent hitting woes, Kansas City carries the 12th-most runs above average when facing cutters, which leads Burnes' pitches with a 45.0% usage rate. This bodes some confidence for the Royals to drive in enough runs for a win, especially when notable hitters like Salvador Perez have fared well against Burnes (.500 batting average over 12 career at-bats).

Kansas City's bullpen has been much better over the last 30 days, too, holding the third-lowest xFIP. Meanwhile, the O's bullpen ranks 12th in the category.

Considering the pitching matchup, give me the road underdog. Is Baltimore in store for another deflating postseason?

New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers

Brewers Under 3.5 Runs (+104)

Following a thrilling comeback from a three-run deficit, the New York Mets are riding high into the postseason. The best news? Luis Severino didn't have to pitch on Monday, meaning he will take the mound for Game 1 against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Milwaukee has a slash line of .233/.299/.408 when facing right-handed hurlers over the last 30 days. This should certainly give Severino some confidence for today's meeting. His last three starts have been far from ideal, posting a 5.63 ERA. However, single-game xFIPs of 4.27, 3.60, and 2.55 suggest it's not as bad as it looks. In fact, the 3.60 and 2.55 marks from his previous two appearances are both easily below his season-average of 4.12.

Pitch usage is another check mark for Severino. His most-used pitch is a four-seam fastball (35.5%), and Milwaukee is last in runs above average when facing this pitch over the last month of play. Severino has finished the sixth inning in four of his past five starts, as well.

The Brewers going under 3.5 runs is aided by New York's bullpen holding the fourth-lowest xFIP over the last 30 days. Between a thriving bullpen and a solid matchup for Severino, Milwaukee's batting order could come out flat.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Salvador Perez to Hit a Home Run (+750)

Diving into head-to-head matchups can often be a help for circling home run props. As previously mentioned, Salvador Perez has mashed against Corbin Burnes, batting .500 paired with a .750 SLG over 12 career at-bats.

September was a pretty slow month for Perez, carrying a .239 batting average. However, he's totaled 5 hits over his previous 17 at-bats (.294). We know Salvy is capable of going yard with 27 big flies on the season.

Let's get to the biggest shred of evidence for this pick. Initially, taking a home run against Burnes feels questionable as he is in the top 5% of hard-hit percentage allowed. However, over his last five games starts, we've seen some of Burnes' numbers jump -- particularly against righties.

In fact, Burnes gave up 1.7 home runs per nine innings (HR/9), a 46.4% fly-ball rate (FB%), and a 15.4% home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) in this split during September. This is a decent jump compared to 1.2 HR/9 and a 12.0% HR/FB against righties this season.

Perez has the ability to lift the ball with a 44.5 FB% this season. Driven by his career success against Burnes, he could be the best bet in the Royals-O's to go yard.

Spencer Torkelson to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Finding promising home run props is far from easy in the postseason, especially in Game 1 with aces on the rubber. But we have another angle for the Detroit Tigers visiting the Houston Astros.

Framber Valdez -- the Astros' leading starter -- is an interesting case. While he's in the bottom 6% of hard-hit percentage, Valdez is yielding only a 20.0 FB% this season, leading to a 0.7 HR/9. However, he's given up a dinger in back-to-back starts.

In September, Valdez carried 0.9 HR/9 and a 20.0% HR/FB when facing right-handed hitters over four starts. Spencer Torkelson is a batter with success against Valdez, carrying a .286 batting average and .429 SLG over 14 career at-bats.

Torkelson's FB% could be the most encouraging stat for this pick. As previously mentioned, Valdez has a concerning HR/FB against righties over the last month with an alarming hard-hit rate allowed, but his FB% allowed is very low. Enter Torkelson, who has a 50.8 FB% on the season; it's even better against southpaws at 58.8% (!) over the last 30 days.

The Tigers' first baseman has career success against Valdez, and his FB% could take advantage of some of Valdez's recent struggles. The +520 line to hit one over the fence is looking juicy.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.