MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 9/29/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

Yankees -1.5 (+115)

Runs could be tougher to come by in the Bronx because of misty weather, but I still believe the New York Yankees shouldn't be plus money to come out at least two ahead in today's matchup.

They've got the advantage on both sides of the plate. New York's Clarke Schmidt has put together a nice year with a 3.67 expected ERA (xERA) and 37.3% hard-hit rate allowed entering this final start, and the Pittsburgh Pirates are far from a difficult matchup. They've posted a mere 77 wRC+ and 24.4% K rate against righties in the past 30 days.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Bailey Falter enters the lion's den -- even if the Yanks rest a key guy or two in the finale. Falter's 4.81 xERA is a product of elevated flyball (42.5%) and hard-hit (40.1%) rates allowed. It's a miracle he's only ceded 1.08 HR/9, but extra-base hits are on the menu.

With New York's reliever xFIP over the past 30 days (3.24) also towering over Pittsburgh's (4.70), I'm not sure where the Buccos find a way to hang tight in this one.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

Over 11.0 Runs (-115)

Coors Field has roared for at least 15 runs in each of the past two days, and 11 is certainly a clearable mark given today's pitching matchup.

The Colorado Rockies will send out Ryan Feltner for a final time, and Feltner's struggles at Coors Field have resulted in allowing a .353 wOBA and 1.38 HR/9 in the unfriendly confines. I'm not sure I need to let you know the Los Angeles Dodgers offense is the best in MLB against righties, posting an .861 OPS in the split over the past month of play.

On the other side, it might be tough for Colorado to get to opener Anthony Banda (3.32 xERA), but they'll get quality at-bats in this bullpen game for the Dodgers. L.A.'s bullpen has the fifth-highest xFIP in baseball over the past month (4.38).

numberFire forecasts 12.42 median runs in this one. I just don't see either pitching staff stopping the weekend of bleeding in the series finale.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Mookie Betts to Hit a Home Run (+390)

It's difficult to find a Dodger that hasn't homered in this weekend series at Coors, but Mookie Betts fits that description.

His contact numbers suggest that it won't be long until he finds the bleachers. Over the past month of play, L.A.'s shortstop has posted an .844 OPS, .290 ISO, 57.8% flyball rate (!), and 42.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers like Colorado's Ryan Feltner. He's got five homers in this sample -- just none this weekend.

Feltner's home struggles also include a few more homers to righties like Mookie, allowing 1.18 HR/9 compared to 1.12 to lefties.

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections expect 0.23 home runs for Betts in Sunday's game, which would translate to roughly +387 odds for one if correct. Betts has better contact splits than Max Muncy yet sits behind him in odds, so there's value here.

Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+470)

One of the reasons the Detroit Tigers were able to return to the postseason this year is the lift that Kerry Carpenter has given them against right-handed pitching.

Carpenter has quelled what was an issue for Detroit all last season by smashing orthodox pitchers all season. He's maintained that elite production with a .905 OPS, .281 ISO, 42.2% flyball rate, and 42.2% hard-hit rate against right-handers over the past month of play.

For the final time in 2024, we'll use the outfielder to pick on the Chicago White Sox. Jonathan Cannon is today's unlucky contestant, allowing 1.28 HR/9 to this stage behind 38.8% flyball and 7.3% barrel rates allowed.

Our projections are a huge fan of Carpenter in this matchup, pegging him for 0.29 home runs on Sunday. That would merit closer to +323 odds for a bomb if correct.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.