MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Monday 10/7/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

Tigers Moneyline (-130)

The Detroit Tigers dropped Game 1 of the ALDS by a score of 7-0, but I think they'll get even with the Cleveland Guardians this late afternoon.

Tarik Skubal will be on the bump, the big reason why I'm keen on backing Detroit. In Game 1 of this series, Tyler Holton let up five runs in the first inning, digging the Tigers into a hole they could never climb out of. That kind of stuff typically doesn't happen to Skubal.

This season, Skubal dealt to the tune of a 2.39 ERA (second-best in MLB), 2.70 xERA (best), 2.83 xFIP (third), and 2.89 SIERA (second). He also allowed just a 0.92 WHIP and 0.70 home runs per nine innings all while striking out batters at a 30.3% rate

He's the most trustworthy ace to have on the mound these days and proved just that in the Wild Card series, surrendering zero runs and extra-base hits through six innings. Tonight figures to be an uphill battle for Cleveland's offense.

Can the Tigers offer Skubal enough insurance runs to win this thing? Former long-tenured Tiger Matt Boyd will take the mound for Cleveland, and we have reason to be a bit hesitant about him tonight.

Boyd underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery a season ago. His health has long been an issue, as he hasn't pitched a qualified season since 2019. The Guardians inked the unsigned free agent to a deal in late June and he began making appearances for the team in mid-August. Through eight regular-season starts, Boyd dominated a 2.72 ERA, 3.10 xERA, 3.89 xFIP, and 3.65 SIERA.

One major concern with Boyd is that he hasn't pitched since September 21st. Going 16 days without taking the mound could be a brutal blow to Boyd's red-hot momentum, especially in this playoff environment. He's logged only one postseason out in his 10-year MLB career, so the playoff experience isn't exactly there, either. Boyd also lets up a potentially treacherous 47.6% fly-ball rate, so I have faith that Detroit's offense can get to him to some extent while Skubal holds it down on defense.

Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees

Royals Moneyline (+128)

Let's look for another road team to even up the series. The Kansas City Royals' offense proved they could perform away from their home field, posting five runs through six innings in Game 1, but the New York Yankees eventually prevailed with a 6-5 win.

Tonight, Cole Ragans and Carlos Rodon will take the mound for their respective teams.

Ragans posted a 3.14 ERA, 3.27 xERA, 3.46 xFIP, and 3.49 SIERA this season. He touts a 29.3% strikeout rate and limits opponents to just 0.71 home runs per nine innings, a good sign for how he could fare against some of New York's strikeout-prone power hitters.

Ragans absolutely dealt in Game 1 of the Wild Card series. His stat line included four hits, zero walks, zero runs, and eight strikeouts through six innings against a tough-as-nails Baltimore offense, and he did all that on the road. Momentum is everything in the playoffs, and I'm encouraged that we've seen some awesome stuff from Ragans as early as last week.

The same cannot be said for Carlos Rodon. He's gone 10 days since taking the mound and hasn't been privy to a postseason start since 2021.

Rodon has always been a bit of a wild card, which makes him a fun pitcher to bet against in a playoff environment. On one hand, his 3.96 ERA, 3.78 SIERA, and 26.5% K% exemplify dominance. But then again, his 4.14 xERA isn't as pretty and he surrenders a notable 49.4% fly-ball rate (second-highest in MLB), which led to him giving up a whopping 31 home runs (second-most) this season.

By way of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Juan Soto, and a lethal bullpen, the Yanks have a natural upper hand. But if I can get Kansas City's moneyline at +128 odds in a Ragans versus Rodon bout, I'll take it.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Spencer Torkelson to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Matt Boyd surrendered a .466 SLG, 45.9% fly-ball rate, and 1.65 home runs per nine innings to right-handed batters in 2023. He's limited righties to just two home runs through 31 1/3 innings this season, but there's a bit more to the story here.

Boyd has allowed this handedness a massive 48.8% fly-ball rate but has been saved by a tiny 4.8% home run to fly-ball ratio. Will Boyd's fly-ball luck run out tonight? Spencer Torkelson is in for a great matchup, so let's look for him sour Boyd's first career playoff start.

The right-handed Torkelson has generated a .272 ISO (16th-highest in MLB; minimum 85 PA) and a sky-high 59.7% fly-ball rate (third) versus left-handed pitchers this season. I'll lay these +500 odds in favor of Torkelson's fly-ball luck opposite Boyd.

Hunter Renfroe to Hit a Home Run (+520)

As mentioned, Rodon has ceded 31 home runs (second-most in MLB) this season, making him an intriguing target to bet against in this market.

To righties, Rodon coughs up a .330 wOBA, .454 SLG, 51.2% fly-ball rate (second-highest in MLB), and 1.77 home runs per nine frames (fourth-most).

I'll trepidatiously skip past Bobby Witt Jr. (+400) here and instead, look for the right-handed Hunter Renfroe to go long.

Renfroe has generated a team-high 48.9% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. He's also managed an 11.4% barrel rate and 57.1% fly-ball rate across the last 30 days of play, including a seismic 15.8% barrel rate, 63.2% fly-ball rate, and .222 ISO across the last 14 days.

Salvador Perez is also in for a fantastic matchup, but he went long against Rodon in the first and third innings during a matchup against him less than a month ago. I have a feeling Perez won't see many good pitches opposite Rodon tonight. Instead, let's ride Kansas City's hot hand in Renfroe.

Renfroe bats fifth for the Royals and could be in line to bat with runners in scoring position given that Witt and Perez precede him in the batting order. In turn, I'll tack on Renfroe's +220 RBI odds, too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.