Mississippi State vs Texas Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for March 4

The Texas Longhorns (16-13, 5-11 SEC) will try to break a three-game losing streak when they visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs (20-9, 8-8 SEC) on March 4, 2025 at Humphrey Coliseum.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Mississippi State vs. Texas Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Tuesday, March 4, 2025
• Game time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV channel: SEC Network
• Location: Starkville, Mississippi
• Arena: Humphrey Coliseum

Mississippi State vs. Texas Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Mississippi State win (75.6%)

Mississippi State is a 7.5-point favorite against Texas on Tuesday and the over/under is set at 150.5 points. Keep reading for a few betting trends and insights if you are planning on making a wager on the matchup.

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Mississippi State vs. Texas: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Mississippi State has put together a 13-16-0 ATS record so far this year.
• Texas has won 13 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 16 times.
• As a 7.5-point underdog or more in 2024-25, Texas is 1-1 against the spread compared to the 6-7 ATS record Mississippi State racks up as a 7.5-point favorite.
• At home, the Bulldogs have a worse record against the spread (6-8-0) compared to their ATS record in away games (5-5-0).
• In 2024-25 against the spread, the Longhorns have a better winning percentage at home (.471, 8-9-0 record) than away (.444, 4-5-0).
• Mississippi State has beaten the spread six times in 16 conference games.
• Against the spread in SEC play, Texas is 6-10-0 this season.

Mississippi State vs. Texas: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Mississippi State has won in 17, or 73.9%, of the 23 contests it has been named as the moneyline favorite in this year.
• This season, the Bulldogs have been victorious 10 times in 11 chances when named as a favorite of at least -319 or better on the moneyline.
• Texas is 1-8 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 11.1% of those games).
• The Longhorns have played as a moneyline underdog of +255 or longer in only two games this season, which they lost both.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Mississippi State has a 76.1% chance of walking away with the win.

Mississippi State vs. Texas Head-to-Head Comparison

• Mississippi State's +174 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 6.0 points per game) is a result of scoring 79.1 points per game (59th in college basketball) while allowing 73.1 per contest (214th in college basketball).
• Mississippi State's leading scorer, Josh Hubbard, ranks 60th in college basketball scoring 18.3 points per game.
• Texas' +209 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 7.2 points per game) is a result of putting up 78.0 points per game (78th in college basketball) while allowing 70.8 per contest (147th in college basketball).
• Tre Johnson is ninth in the country with a team-high 20.6 points per game.
• The Bulldogs win the rebound battle by an average of 3.6 boards. They are collecting 35.9 rebounds per game (25th in college basketball) compared to their opponents' 32.3 per contest.
• KeShawn Murphy's 7.6 rebounds per game lead the Bulldogs and rank 95th in college basketball action.
• The Longhorns win the rebound battle by 1.5 boards on average. They record 32.4 rebounds per game, 156th in college basketball, while their opponents pull down 30.9.
• Arthur Kaluma tops the team with 7.9 rebounds per game (68th in college basketball).
• Mississippi State ranks 93rd in college basketball with 99.2 points scored per 100 possessions, and 137th in college basketball defensively with 91.7 points conceded per 100 possessions.
• The Longhorns' 101.4 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 53rd in college basketball, and the 92.0 points they concede per 100 possessions rank 149th in college basketball.

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