Mississippi State vs Baylor Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament First Round

The No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12) and the No. 9 Baylor Bears (19-14) battle on Friday for a spot in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The opening-round matchup tips off at 12:15 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Mississippi State vs. Baylor Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Friday, March 21, 2025
• Game time: 12:15 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS
• Location: Raleigh, North Carolina
• Arena: Lenovo Center

Mississippi State vs. Baylor Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Baylor win (53.9%)

Before making a wager on Friday's Mississippi State-Baylor spread (Mississippi State -1.5) or over/under (144.5 points), read the betting trends and insights below.

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Mississippi State vs. Baylor: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Mississippi State has put together a 15-18-0 record against the spread this season.
• Baylor is 13-19-0 ATS this season.
• As a 1.5-point favorite or more in 2024-25, Mississippi State is 12-14 against the spread compared to the 2-9 ATS record Baylor puts up as a 1.5-point underdog.
• The Bulldogs have a worse record against the spread in home games (6-9-0) than they do in road games (6-5-0).
• Against the spread, the Bears have performed better at home (8-7-0) than away (2-9-0).

Mississippi State vs. Baylor: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Mississippi State has come away with 18 wins in the 25 contests it has been listed as the moneyline favorite in this season.
• This year, the Bulldogs have won 18 of 26 games when listed as at least -110 or better on the moneyline.
• Baylor has lost all 11 of the games it has been the underdog on the moneyline this season.
• The Bears have played 11 times as a moneyline underdog with odds of -110 or longer, and fell in each game.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Mississippi State has a 52.4% chance of pulling out a win.

Mississippi State vs. Baylor Head-to-Head Comparison

• Mississippi State is outscoring opponents by 5.6 points per game with a +185 scoring differential overall. It puts up 79.8 points per game (43rd in college basketball) and gives up 74.2 per contest (248th in college basketball).
• Josh Hubbard is 58th in college basketball with a team-leading 18.6 points per game.
• Baylor outscores opponents by 7.3 points per game (posting 76.5 points per game, 106th in college basketball, and allowing 69.2 per contest, 89th in college basketball) and has a +241 scoring differential.
• Norchad Omier's 15.9 points per game paces Baylor and ranks 195th in the nation.
• The Bulldogs grab 35.5 rebounds per game (25th in college basketball) while allowing 32.8 per contest to their opponents. They outrebound opponents by 2.7 boards per game.
• KeShawn Murphy's 7.5 rebounds per game lead the Bulldogs and rank 105th in college basketball action.
• The Bears win the rebound battle by three boards on average. They collect 33.1 rebounds per game, 114th in college basketball, while their opponents pull down 30.1.
• Omier's 10.9 rebounds per game lead the Bears and rank fifth in the nation.
• Mississippi State ranks 86th in college basketball with 99.5 points scored per 100 possessions, and 155th in college basketball defensively with 92.5 points conceded per 100 possessions.
• The Bears average 99.6 points per 100 possessions on offense (85th in college basketball), and allow 90.1 points per 100 possessions (87th in college basketball).

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