Michigan State vs New Mexico Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament Second Round

The No. 10 seed New Mexico Lobos (27-7) head into their second-round NCAA Tournament matchup against the No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans (28-6) on Sunday at 8:40 p.m. ET. The winner moves on to the Sweet 16 in the South Region bracket.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Michigan State vs. New Mexico Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Sunday, March 23, 2025
• Game time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• TV channel: TNT
• Location: Cleveland, Ohio
• Arena: Rocket Arena

Michigan State vs. New Mexico Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Michigan State win (59.4%)

Michigan State is a 6.5-point favorite against New Mexico on Sunday and the total is set at 148.5 points. Here are a few betting trends and insights before making an informed wager on the outing.

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Michigan State vs. New Mexico: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Michigan State has compiled a 23-11-0 ATS record so far this year.
• New Mexico is 16-17-0 ATS this season.
• Michigan State covers the spread when it is a 6.5-point favorite or more 72.2% of the time. That's more often than New Mexico covers as an underdog of 6.5 or more (never covered this season).
• Against the spread, the Spartans have fared worse at home, covering 10 times in 16 home games, and seven times in nine road games.
• Against the spread, the Lobos have performed better at home (8-8-0) than on the road (5-6-0).

Michigan State vs. New Mexico: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Michigan State has been victorious in 23, or 85.2%, of the 27 contests it has been chosen as moneyline favorites in this season.
• This season, the Spartans have come away with a win 13 times in 14 chances when named as a favorite of at least -310 or better on the moneyline.
• New Mexico has won 57.1% of the games this season it was the moneyline underdog (4-3).
• The Lobos have played as a moneyline underdog of +250 or longer in only one game this season, which they lost.
• Michigan State has an implied victory probability of 75.6% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Michigan State vs. New Mexico Head-to-Head Comparison

• Michigan State outscores opponents by 11.3 points per game (scoring 78.4 per game to rank 68th in college basketball while giving up 67.1 per outing to rank 45th in college basketball) and has a +385 scoring differential overall.
• Michigan State's leading scorer, Jaden Akins, ranks 586th in college basketball putting up 12.6 points per game.
• New Mexico puts up 81.1 points per game (27th in college basketball) while giving up 70.6 per contest (135th in college basketball). It has a +355 scoring differential and outscores opponents by 10.5 points per game.
• Donovan Dent is ranked eighth in the country with a team-high 20.6 points per game.
• The 37.1 rebounds per game the Spartans average rank seventh in college basketball, and are 9.1 more than the 28 their opponents record per outing.
• Jaxon Kohler leads the team with 7.7 rebounds per game (82nd in college basketball action).
• The Lobos grab 35.3 rebounds per game (25th in college basketball) while allowing 31.3 per outing to opponents. They outrebound opponents by 4.0 boards per game.
• Nelly Junior Joseph tops the Lobos with 11.1 rebounds per game (fourth in college basketball).
• Michigan State ranks 68th in college basketball by averaging 100.6 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively is 21st in college basketball, allowing 86.1 points per 100 possessions.
• The Lobos' 99 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 95th in college basketball, and the 86.2 points they concede per 100 possessions rank 23rd in college basketball.

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