Madrid Open Betting Picks: Saturday 5/4/24

Tennis' clay season continues as we work our way to the 2024 French Open in late May.

The Madrid Open is underway, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Madrid Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in the women's final on Saturday?

Madrid Open Best Bet

Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Over 2.5 Sets (+142)

On Saturday, tennis fans are being treated to a rematch of last year's Madrid Open final between two of the WTA's very best players.

That being said, Iga Swiatek is in a tier of her own on clay, and when she's at her best, she's practically unbeatable. She has won a whopping 88% of her career clay matches, per Tennis Abstract, and has already won the French Open three times despite turning just 23 at the end of May. She's 26-3 on the surface dating back to 2023, and all three of those losses went to a final set.

However, one of those defeats came at the hands of Aryna Sabalenka, who managed to win that aforementioned Madrid championship 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 last year. While Sabalenka doesn't have Swiatek's credentials on clay, she still has a 70% career win rate and has won this title twice, owning a 17-1 Madrid record from 2021 onward.

Sabalenka hasn't been at her best at this 2024 edition, though, as she's gone three sets in four of her five Madrid matches, with her lone straight-sets win being a dominant performance against teenage phenom Mirra Andreeva. If we include her two matches in Stuttgart before this event, Aryna's gone to a final set in six of seven clay matches this year.

On the other hand, Iga has been firing on all cylinders, with her lone hiccup being a dropped set to Beatriz Haddad Maia in the quarterfinals. She's otherwise dominated virtually every set she's played, as out of 11 sets, she's won eight by scores of 6-2 or better, including two 6-0 bagels.

With the way Swiatek is performing, it's very hard to see Sabalenka repeating last year's result. Additionally, Iga leads their head-to-head 6-3 and is 3-1 in their clay meetings. Tennis Abstract projects a 72%-win probability for Swiatek, and Massey Ratings sees it as 75%.

While all of this suggests backing Swiatek, there isn't any value in a -310 moneyline favorite, and the 4.5-game spread (-118) feels steep against the world No. 2.

Instead, I'm more inclined to take a shot on the match going three sets at far more enticing odds. Even if Sabalenka's path hasn't been particularly smooth, coming back from a set down to beat Danielle Collins and Elena Rybakina is no small feat, and her dominant win over a rising Andreeva was also encouraging.

If Swiatek plays like she has for much of the tournament, then Sabalenka may not have a chance. But at these odds, it could be worth betting on Aryna's recent resilience and prior Madrid success keeping her in the fight and extending it to a deciding set.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you place your first bet of at least $5 —win or lose! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest tennis odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the tennis betting options and upcoming tournaments.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.