Luther Burden NFL Draft Profile: College Stats, 40 Time, Combine Results, Top Comps

The hype on Luther Burden III is nothing new, as the Missouri Tigers' wide receiver was a five-star composite recruit coming out of high school.

Now, you'll see his name at or near the top of this year's wide receiver draft class.

What makes Burden so enticing? Let's dig in.

Note: Stats via Pro Football Focus (PFF); percentile ranks, model references, schedule-adjusted stats, and further context via my personal draft model, which includes all drafted FBS players since 2015.

Luther Burden NFL Draft Key Information

• Height: 6'0"
• Weight: 206
• 40-Yard Dash: 4.41 seconds
• Size-Adjusted Speed: 107.9 (81st percentile)
• Vertical Leap: N/A
• Bench Press: N/A
• Broad Jump: N/A
• 3-Cone: N/A
• Shuttle: N/A
• 2024 Games: 12
• 2024 Catches: 61
• 2024 Receiving Yards: 676
• 2024 Receiving TDs: 6

Luther Burden Top Comparables

Based on myriad factors (height, weight, size-adjusted speed, schedule-adjusted production, air yards data, recruiting and big board grades, and more), here are Burden's top comparables based on my historical draft model.

1. Christian Kirk
2. Stefon Diggs
3. Mecole Hardman
4. Parris Campbell
5. A.J. Brown
6. Terrace Marshall Jr.
7. Curtis Samuel
8. Henry Ruggs
9. Jerry Jeudy
10. Xavier Worthy

Luther Burden Scouting Report

A five-star composite recruit, Burden is leaving Missouri after three seasons with just a single 1,000-yard campaign (1,212 yards on 86 catches with a career-best 9 touchdowns). Still, let's not lose sight of his early-declare status, which is a strong predictor of NFL success.

Burden’s drop-off in production in 2024 (61 catches, 676 yards, and 6 touchdowns) from 2023 (86 catches, 1,212 yards, and 9 touchdowns) is never what you want to see no matter how you slice it or what the reason is -- based on historical trends.

Further, Burden’s 9.0-yard final-season average depth of target (aDOT; 12th percentile in my draft model) and high slot rate (86th percentile) have rarely been great signs for first-round prospects maximizing their NFL ceilings.

The crop of early-round WRs with an aDOT under the 25th percentile and a slot rate above the 75th percentile -- 19 of them in my model -- has yielded one player who meets the "stud" production threshold in my database.

That player is Justin Jefferson, whose recruiting scores were below average (advantage: Burden) but whose schedule strength and efficiency was better (advantage: Jefferson).

The rest of that low-aDOT, high-slot subset of wideouts still had successful careers at a position-average rate when compared to the rest of incoming prospects, though.

So, the tools are certainly there for a solid NFL career for Burden even at the lower end of his range of outcomes, but there are more than enough traits for Burden to become a real difference-maker.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.