Las Vegas Bowl: Best Bets and Player Props for USC vs. Texas A&M

The USC Trojans and Texas A&M Aggies meet for the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl at Allegiant Stadium on Friday, December 27th. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET.

Both sides were ranked early in the year, though neither the 6-6 Trojans nor the 8-4 Aggies finished the regular season as strong as they started it.

Even so, Friday night's clash is expected to be a close -- at least according to the USC-Texas A&M odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, let's dive into the USC-Texas A&M betting odds, best bets, and player props for the Las Vegas Bowl.

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

USC vs. Texas A&M Betting Picks

Texas A&M -3.5 (-118)

Even if both sides were at full strength, I'd have to give Texas A&M the advantage in this matchup.

Though the Aggies dropped three of their last four games to close out the regular season, their overall body of work was rock solid in 2024. A&M finished as a top-30 unit by EPA per play on offense and defense, according to College Football Insiders. The Aggies were 51st nationally in scoring (28.4 points per game) and 29th in scoring defense (22.2 points per game allowed) despite playing the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, per ESPN.

USC was down at 33rd in strength of schedule, and they aren't nearly as well-rounded of a team as A&M is. The Trojans finished 13th in offensive EPA per play but were just 40th on defense. The defense is particularly concerning, and it's the biggest matchup advantage Texas A&M has. USC finished 105th in early-down defensive EPA per play and 95th in overall defensive success rate.

Based on the regular season numbers, numberFire's model projects Texas A&M to win by 5.5 points.

But that's not even taking into account how different these teams will look on Friday night. Both sides have seen multiple starters opt out of the bowl game, although USC has taken the more crippling blows. The Trojans will be down two starting offensive lineman, their top two rushers, and two of their top three receivers.

Now, Texas A&M isn't playing at full strength, either. They'll notably be without three starting defensive linemen, but this is an SEC defense we're talking about. Their backups previously played well in reserve roles, and they won't be up against an especially fearsome offensive line.

The Aggies defense doesn't have to be a lockdown unit given how much of an advantage the A&M offense should have over the USC defense. Texas A&M averaged 187.4 rushing yards per game (27th) and was 17th in rushing EPA per play. The Trojans, meanwhile, permitted 4.5 yards per carry (78th) and were 54th in rushing defense EPA per play.

As such, I'm not expecting A&M to have much trouble moving the ball against this USC defense. Considering the Aggies' calling-card came on the other side of the ball, that's enough for me to lay 3.5 points with A&M.

Marcel Reed (TAMU) Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Since taking over as full-time quarterback in late October, Texas A&M freshman Marcel Reed has proven to be one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. Over his last four outings, Reed has averaged 229 passing yards and 52 rushing yards per game. Against a suspect USC run defense, Reed's in a nice spot to go over 54.5 rushing yards.

Reed has cleared this mark in two of the last four games as the Aggies' top quarterback, but he flashed even more rushing upside splitting time under center earlier in the year. In the nine games Reed has attempted a pass, he's rushed for at least 55 yards five times.

This is the right matchup for him to do so again. The Trojans are just 40th in rushing EPA per play allowed, and they've let up 140.8 rushing yards per game (46th in the country). They've been even worse on a per-attempt basis, permitting 4.5 yards per carry (78th).

The Trojans have been susceptible to rushing quarterbacks, too. They let up 50 yards to Notre Dame's Riley Leonard, 32 to Penn State's Drew Allar, and 43 to Michigan's Alex Orji -- and none of those QBs run as much as Reed does.

In the last four games as A&M's starter, Reed has averaged 14 rush attempts per game. The last two games alone have seen Reed rush 35 times for 122 yards.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.